Good morning, and welcome to B2 Impact's third quarter presentation. As usual, for the Q&A, we will start with those calling in and then continue with questions in the chat, which you can post during the presentation. With that, I will give the word to our CEO, Trond Kristian Andreassen.
Thank you, Rasmus, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 presentation. I am pleased to report that we have continued to deliver strong results, and today we will walk you through the key highlights that demonstrate the momentum we have built throughout 2026. Have in mind that when comparing the figures with Q3 last year, we had a very large REO sale in that quarter. We will come back to this in more details later. Looking at Q3, we see several important developments. Unsecured collection performance remained strong. We continue to see growth in collections with improved operational efficiency, lower operating expenses, combined with higher collection volumes. We are firmly on track to reach our full-year target, investment target. Our earnings per share are tracking well ahead of target. We have increased our guidance to above NOK 2.40 for the full year.
EPS growth is now running more than one year ahead of our original target, reflecting both operational improvements and higher investments. We have further improved our cost of funding through successful refinancing at improved terms. In summary, sustained strong execution, earnings growth, exceeding expectations, and a strong momentum carrying into 2027 and beyond. The investment momentum has continued into the third quarter, and I am pleased with both the volume and the quality of the portfolios we are acquiring. Year-to-date, we have invested and committed NOK 3.7 billion. That puts us very close to our full-year target of NOK 4 billion. We are well-positioned, and we enter the fourth quarter, historically our most active season, in a very strong position where we can both be selective and disciplined on pricing. Unsecured ERC, which remains our core focus, has grown by 19% on a comparable basis year-over-year.
This growth is driven by higher and more front-loaded investment volumes in the first nine months of the year. The market remains large, and our geographic diversification allows us to continuously select the best opportunities available. This slide illustrates one of the most important developments for our business. Collection performance remained strong at 112%, and the outperformance reflects the upside in our ERC. We have achieved a 22% increase in unsecured collection per FTE year-over-year. This is a remarkable development. It reflects a year of investments in technology, data analytics, and automation, demonstrating the scalability of our business model. We continue to accelerate the deployment of AI-supported tools across the organization. Voice bots powered by AI are now operational in several markets with very encouraging results. They offer significant opportunities to expand customer reach, reduce operating costs, and gain valuable insights from customer interactions.
Beyond voice communication, we are automating written communication and document processing, accelerating both the onboarding of new portfolios and collection efficiency across the back book. The systematic rollout of AI-supported automation across all countries, operations remains a strong strategic priority. This effect is already visible in our results, and we expect it to accelerate throughout 2026 and in the coming years. Based on the strong performance through the first nine months of 2026, we have updated our full-year financial targets. Earnings per share are expected to exceed NOK 2.40, up from our previous target of NOK 2.25. Return on equity is expected to be approximately 17% at year-end. Total investments are on track to reach NOK 4 billion. Leverage ratio will remain below 2.5x, maintaining our capital discipline. Our financial targets for 2027 and 2028 remain under revision and will be presented in the Q4 presentation.
What I can tell you is that the strong development in 2026 provides a very solid foundation for continued value creation in the years ahead. With that, I will hand over to André for more details from our financial performance.
Thank you, Trond Kristian, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report that our financial performance continues to exceed our expectations. The financial and operational development in the quarter demonstrates that the momentum that we have built is not only sustained, but accelerating in the third quarter. At the beginning of the year, we presented financial targets with key value drivers to grow earnings per share by at least 30% over the next three years. We now expect earnings per share in 2026 to grow by at least 26%, taking the financial performance more than one year ahead of the initial financial target. This comes on top of a very strong 57% growth last year. To understand why, we would like to revisit the key value drivers and how they contribute to the strong growth in EPS.
First of all, we continue to see high growth in unsecured collections, which have consistently grown by more than 10% each quarter. ERC has grown now in the third quarter 19% compared to last year as a consequence of higher and front-loaded investments year-to-date. The increase in ERC implies further growth in collections in the coming quarters. Unsecured collection performance has improved even faster than we anticipated. We have each quarter this year delivered a 4 percentage points- 5 percentage points improvement in collection performance compared to a strong year last year. This consistent outperformance demonstrates the quality and the value embedded in our book value. This embedded upside in our ERC or book value is represented through revaluations on this slide, which is in line with the targeted level, meaning the accelerated growth is coming from improvements in the other value drivers.
Operating expenses has declined 4% in the third quarter, while collection has grown by 10%, demonstrating the scalability of the business model, but also the impact of our automation initiatives. Cost of debt has also improved. We have reduced our underlying interest cost by 10% compared to last year, following well-timed hedging initiatives and refinancing at favorable terms. We expect further positive impact on interest costs related to our latest bond issue at the margin of 2.65%. The improvement in these value drivers, combined with our disciplined investment approach, have delivered an EPS growth that is now sustainably running more than one year ahead of our original targets. Let me walk you through the financial performance for the quarter and year-to-date.
I would like to highlight that the deviations shown in the table on slide nine represents constant FX development following the recent strengthening of the Norwegian kroner. In the comparable column, we have also adjusted for the large REO sale that Trond Kristian referred to from last year to help demonstrate the underlying growth that we have in the business. The unsecured collection performance reached 112% in the third quarter, up 4 percentage points compared to 108% last year. The outperformance is underpinned by 10% growth in unsecured collections. The third quarter is seasonally the slowest quarter in terms of collections, and year-to-date, the collection performance stands at 115%. As mentioned, the ERC growth was 19% compared to last year, laying the foundation for further growth in collections in the coming quarters.
Operating expenses declined by 4% in constant FX compared to the same quarter last year, which is a notable step change from previous quarters. Cost of debt continues to improve, with the underlying interest cost down 10% compared to last year. We have also executed both a successful bond issue at EUR 150 million with a strong margin of 2.65%, and we renegotiated the RCF at improved terms. Year-to-date investments and committed investments for this year stands at NOK 3.7 billion in constant FX compared to the full year target of EUR 4 billion. This is a very favorable position, which allows us to be highly selective and price disciplined going into the seasonally most active quarter in the fourth quarter. Earnings per share in the third quarter was up 27% in constant FX and 44% on a comparable basis.
As a consequence, we have increased our 2026 EPS target, which I will come back to later in the presentation. Unsecured collections continue the same strong trend we have seen so far this year, again coming in at 115% year-to-date. The strong performance is achieved despite positive revaluations over recent years, demonstrating the embedded upside in our ERC. Secured collections remain strong, with several claims collected notably above the ERC in the quarter. We have also realized NOK 74 million in REO sales at a 63% margin to book value. year-to-date, the REO sales have reached NOK 341 million, with an average gain of 50% to book value. The successful acceleration of REO sales this year has generated meaningful cash flow to support the increased investment level year-to-date. Moving to slide 11 and cash flow.
In 2026, we have seen front-loaded investment levels compared with the normal seasonality, which is higher activity at the end of the year. Despite the elevated investment level that we have seen over the last 12 months, with an investment level of NOK 4.5 billion, the leverage ratio remained low at 2.3x at the end of the third quarter. The target investment level is, as mentioned, NOK 4 billion, which means we expect a lower investment level in the fourth quarter this year compared to last year. Again, a very favorable position to be in. That, in combination with cash from investments year-to-date, will stabilize the full year leverage well below the 2.5x target level. On slide 12, we cover more details related to one of the key value drivers, the cost scalability.
Stable OPEX combined with strong collection growth has been a key value driver for our EPS growth over the last couple of years. In the last 12 months, we have grown our cash revenue by 7% with no cost increases. In the third quarter, we are pleased to say that we have pushed this even further with operating expenses declining 4% in a high inflationary environment. The underlying OPEX ratio consequently continues to improve, reflecting the scalability in our business. Investments in the quarter came in at NOK 772 million. The majority of the investments were in unsecured portfolios, but we also invested in a mixed portfolio, which included secured claims in the quarter. Total ERC at the end of the third quarter stands conservatively at NOK 28 billion, which is up 19% compared to the same quarter last year in constant FX.
I would also like to note that our geographical ERC distribution is increasingly more balanced across our markets, with an increased investment level in Western Europe over the last 12 months. Interest cost came in at NOK 178 million in the third quarter. This is down from NOK 183 million last year, despite an increase in net debt. On a comparable basis, adjusting for the higher debt level, interest costs were down 10%. During the quarter, we have renegotiated the RCF at improved terms, and as mentioned, also issued a new bond at a competitive 2.65% margin. Both initiatives will contribute to further improvements in our cost of debt in the coming year. We maintain a floating interest rate hedging coverage of almost 80%, with an average duration of three years. These hedging instruments are currently notably in the money.
Leverage ratio remains well below 2.5x, with a solid liquidity reserve of EUR 330 million, in addition to our strong operational cash flow. I started out the financial section by revisiting the key value drivers for EPS growth. We have seen an accelerated delivery on all the key value drivers, leading to an increased target for 2026. We now expect earnings per share above NOK 2.4 for this year, up from the initial target of NOK 2.10, which is a 21% increase in constant FX and 33% increase compared to last year. Consequently, the expected return on equity for this year is also increased to approximately 17%, up from the initial expected 14%. Investment target of NOK 4 billion is tracking well ahead of plan, with NOK 3.7 billion already committed for this year.
Now, as Trond Kristian mentioned, early in the presentation, our financial targets, beyond 2026 are under revision and will be shared at the Q4 presentation. What we can say is that the strong performance in 2026, combined with growth in ERC, provides a solid foundation for additional value creation to our shareholders in the years ahead.
Thank you, André. Let me conclude by summarizing the key messages from today's presentation. Our unsecured collection performance at 112% and 10% underlying growth in collections demonstrates the real and sustainable value in our portfolios and provides upside to our ERC. We continue to grow collections while reducing OPEX, clearly demonstrating the scalability of our business model and our ability to manage increasing portfolio volumes without a corresponding increase in headcounts. We are firmly on track to achieve our full-year target of NOK 4 billion. EPS growth of 33% is well ahead of target, more than one year ahead of our original target. We have further improved our cost of funding through refinancing at improved terms, strengthening our financial flexibility going forward. I would like to express my appreciation to all B2 Impact employees for their continued commitment and excellent execution.
We remain confident in our ability to deliver continued attractive returns. We are well-positioned to capture market opportunities while maintaining our disciplined approach to pricing and capital allocation. We are grateful for the strong foundation we have built in 2026, and we are focused on translating the momentum into sustained value creation in the years ahead. Then I leave the word to you again, Rasmus, for the Q&A.
Thank you, Trond Kristian. Thank you, André.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad.
Thank you to the AI lady. We will then start with those dialing in. Ulrik Zürcher from Nordea, the floor is yours.
Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could zoom in a little bit on the personnel expenses that are coming in this quarter at NOK 190 million. It seems like a huge improvement from your run rate at around NOK 220 million-NOK 230 million the last two years. Any drivers here? Is this the new sustainable level, or how should we view this?
If you look at the FTE number, from last year, it is down by around 10% in one year. We probably haven't marketed that so clear, but we are down 10% compared to last year. As you have seen over the last four or five years, we are down 50%. So a 10% reduction is notable, and it is across all functions, both low and high salaries. The impact that you see on cost in Q3, as I tried to get across in the presentation, is a sustainably lower level and a step change in our cost level.
Is there no seasonality we should be aware of in that number?
Last year, there was some noise. You probably saw there were positive NRIs also in the quarter, so it was probably on the high end last year. So a reduction of close to 10% is based on the FTE reduction, is what you should expect.
All right, great. Last question. I was just wondering, given the hedges and all that you have done now on, or continue to do on your capital structure side on the funding cost, do you have any comments on what sort of magnitude we should expect on funding cost improvements next year versus this year, based on stuff you have already done?
I think the way you should look at this is the marginal increase based on our investment improvements, the marginal increase will be very low in funding cost going forward.
That is clear. All right, great. Thank you, guys.
Thank you, Ulrik.
Thank you.
Thanks.
We will then move to the questions post in the chat. We will then start with Fredrik Støle from ABG. He has quite a few questions, so let us kick off. First one, 2026 guidance. You raised your 2026 EPS guidance to NOK 2.4 from NOK 2.25, implying a strong Q4. To what extent is this upgrade supported by collection performance and cost developments you have already observed in Q4 versus expectations for the remainder of the quarter?
Not exactly sure how to
I guess it's a combination, right?
I think coming back to the key value drivers that we presented, you clearly see that we have very strong growth in unsecured collection, even higher than we anticipated because of the higher investments. You continue to see that costs are coming down. At the same time, we're growing collections by 10% and ERC by almost 20%. I think looking at the value drivers should explain, hopefully, why we have increased the EPS to NOK 2.40, but we're actually saying above NOK 2.40. There's a small uncertainty there, obviously, with the Norwegian kroner that can impact that level, which is why we say above NOK 2.40. We clearly expect, based on the underlying performance of the business, to be above NOK 2.40.
I would like to add on that our countries has been very disciplined in terms of costs for a long period, and they are always seeking new opportunities with new technology, which has a big impact on our numbers. I think that's also very important for us, and that will continue with full focus, both locally, but also from central support in this area.
Very good. We continue with the second question. Long-term targets. You previously indicated that you would upgrade your 2028 financial targets, which remain under review. When should we expect the updated targets to be announced, and what is holding back an upgrade at this stage?
That will be presented at the Q4 presentation. There is a process with all the countries and the board to build a longer-term business plan. I think we've clearly indicated that that will be increased based on a sustainably higher EPS that we have delivered year-to-date. We will share that at the Q4 presentation.
Then, third question on ERC. ERC declined 4% quarter-on-quarter to NOK 27.1 billion despite continued portfolio investments. Could you elaborate on what drove the decline?
From?
Q2 to Q3.
Yeah. Normally, Q3 seasonally, you see a decline. You see that going back, you always see a decline between Q3 and Q2. But in this quarter, if you look in constant FX, we actually have an increase of 1% ERC compared to the second quarter, which is a reflection of the high investment level, which has come earlier this year than we normally see.
Then the final question from Fredrik Støle. Costs were significantly better than expectations in Q3. Was this an unusually strong quarter driven by temporary factors, or should we view the Q3 cost level as a reasonable starting point going forward?
Again, this is, as I said in the presentation, a step change. We have a 10% reduction in FTEs compared to last year, and the reduction in cost is coming from personnel expenses and other operating expenses. The only increases we have on the cost side is collection-related legal expenses, which is based on higher activity level.
Very good. Then we move to Roy Tilley from Arctic. Some of your peers have highlighted very tough competition for portfolios currently. Can you talk a bit about what you are seeing in your markets? Secondly, investments in the quarter were more tilted towards secured portfolios than usual. Is this just a bit of volatility, or is it a reflection of where the best opportunities currently are?
Yes. We have always told the market that the competition level is going a bit up and down depending on the different markets, and that is not anything new in that respect. The situation for B2 Impact is that our strategy actually supports different times with competition levels going up and down. That is because we have a very balanced kind of growth. We are also, due to our footprint, we are able to allocate portfolios where we see the best opportunities and the best return. We are not worried about the market at all. The last question was about
That was about the investments in the quarter were more tilted towards secured portfolios—
Yeah
—than usual.
That is well observed. It is not that we have stated that we are not entering into secured assets, and especially where we see a combination of portfolios. In some markets, you kind of have to buy mixed portfolios. If the secured part is kind of granular, we don't have any doubt to rather than invest in such portfolios. We have, in those actual countries, well-skilled people in the secured area.
Thank you. We will then move on to Jakub Szymkiewicz from SpareBank 1 Markets. "You highlighted AI as a driver for improved operational efficiency. How should we think about OPEX development from here? Should AI benefits allow cost base to remain broadly flat despite higher collection activity, or even should we expect OPEX to decline year-over-year in the coming quarters?
It's a good question, and honestly, it's very, very difficult to predict the outcome of this. That's why we actually, every quarter, shows what we have achieved. That trend is perhaps something you can have in mind when you look at the future. We spend a lot of resources and a lot of effort into this area, and that will continue. But to predict the actual numbers is very, very difficult. That's why we are not guiding on that part.
We're not guiding specifically on different cost items. As we have said, we'll come back with longer-term financial targets at the Q4 presentation, which will reflect our ambition level, both on AI, on investment levels. I think we've clearly stated that we are sustainably now at a higher EPS level, and that will be reflected in the upcoming revised targets.
Good. We then have a couple of questions from Nils Gunnar Hjellegjerde from [inaudible] . First question, "With leverage rising to 2.3x and the last 12 months cash earnings after investments, financing, and tax at negative NOK 638 million, how much room is there to fund further portfolio growth and 100% earnings payout while staying below your 2.5x leverage target?
Yeah. I think I understood the question. What is important to say is that the last 12 months, we have invested NOK 4.5 billion, because last year, we had backend-loaded investments for the year and front-loaded this year, which means the last 12 months reflect a higher investment level than we expect to get for the full year, which is expected at NOK 4 billion. In 2026, we started the year by expecting NOK 3.5 billion of investments, but we have accelerated our sales of REOs, which has improved our cash flow and given us an opportunity to invest more this year.
Going forward, we again will come back with new financial targets, and in those targets, the clear expectation is to have an investment level that will continue to grow our top line, but grow our bottom line higher and more than the bottom line, with an investment level that will keep a sustained leverage below 2.5x to facilitate 100% payout ratio also going forward.
Then the second question is, "How is competition for unsecured portfolios affecting pricing and expected returns across your core markets? With NOK 3.7 billion already invested or committed, are you prepared to undershoot the NOK 4 billion target if Q4 pricing becomes less attractive?
I think the situation we are in is actually kind of opposite, because we can be very selective in the last part of the year, and that means that we can select portfolios with the best return and where we have the best capacity.
Yeah. We have a couple of questions here from Anastasia Kolesnikova, who is a private investor. We might have answered it already, but I will post the questions or read the questions anyway. Question one, "What do you see as the main driver of future earnings growth? Larger portfolios, better collections, or lower costs?" Or all?
Combination, obviously. The answer to that is in the key value drivers slide, which will continue to be the key value drivers going forward.
Yeah. The second question, "You have grown unsecured collections while reducing operating costs. What has driven these efficiency gains, and how much further improvement do you see from here?" I guess you answered that.
Yeah
already. I think we will then move to the next question from John Breveridge, Gurnon Invest. "Is there anything in this rather excellent quarter that caused disappointment?" That is the last question, so it is probably a good way to round off.
That was a tricky question. We were not prepared for that question, actually. I think the culture in the group is always to do things better, and we have a lot of areas where we can improve. So, it is not that every day is like a party. We have a lot to work on, and that is good. So, that is what I can say about that, I think.
I think that was a good answer from Kristian. That was actually all questions, so we have concluded the Q&A. Thank you both, and we look forward to see you again on the Q4 presentation in February.
Thank you.
Thank you.