Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (TYO:9101)
Japan flag Japan · Delayed Price · Currency is JPY
5,471.00
-100.00 (-1.80%)
May 11, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

May 9, 2023

Speaker 1

Thank you very much for waiting. First of all, I would like to thank you for attending this session in your busy schedule. We will now start the financial results for FY 2022 and FY 2023 for full year forecast briefing session for NYK. I am Okada, I am the Head of IR Group. I will be moderating today's event. First, let me introduce the presenters. First, the Representative Director and CEO, M r. Soga. I am Soga. Next, Vice President, Executive Officer, CFO, Mr. Kono. I am Kono. Executive Officer and Head of Liner & Logistics segment, Mr. Banno. I am Banno. First, Mr. Soga, the President, will give you the overview of the full year results of FY 2022. We will have some time for Q&A session. I will explain how you can raise questions later.

The presentation material used today are posted on our website, please see them from the website. Also, this briefing session will be streamed online on on-demand basis, including the Q&A session. Let me hand over to Mr. Soga. I am Soga, the President of NYK. I assumed this role from April first. Thank you very much for attending this briefing session in your busy schedule. First, I would like to go over the overview of the results for FY 2022, then I would like to cover the full year forecast for FY 2023. After the explanation, we will take some time for Q&A session. The presentation materials will be projected on the screen. Also, if you have already downloaded the materials from our website, you can also refer to those materials.

First, let me cover the overview of the full year results FY 2022. Please refer to the table on page 6. The blue highlight at the center is the actual for FY 2022. The revenue increased year-on-year by JPY 335.2 billion to JPY 2,616 billion. Recurring profit increased year-on-year by JPY 106.6 billion to JPY 1,109.7 billion. Net income increased year-on-year by JPY 3.4 billion to JPY 1,012.5 billion. At all levels, the results surpassed the FY 2021 result, which was the historical high and renewed at the high levels. There are three reasons.

One is that the Liner Trade, air cargo, transportation, logistics, bulk shipping, energy, dry bulk, automotive, transportation, energy, all of these businesses achieved a very strong performance that led to the overall strong performance. Another factor is mostly related to container shipping. After the summertime, the market softened. Also, the logistics in the transport business slowdown was quite evident. In addition to container business, logistics and air cargo, and due to other reasons, dry bulk business in the second half slowed down. In the middle of the year, the weakening of the yen became pronounced and the overall revenue was lifted due to those factors.

Due to these factors in full year, we were able to achieve the record high results. Regarding the comparison by segment, please refer to page 7. Here again, the blue highlight shows the results for FY 2022. In the Liner & Logistics business, which is made up of Liner Trade, air cargo, and logistics. For Liner Trade, the recurring profit increased year-on-year by JPY 57.1 billion to JPY 791.3 billion. Air cargo profit declined year-on-year by JPY 12.2 trillion to JPY 61.8 trillion. Logistics profit declined year-on-year by JPY 4.4 billion to JPY 54.3 billion. In all areas, the strong first half results supported the overall results.

In the air cargo and logistics, the profit declined year-over-year. Still, compared to usual years, the performance is very strong. In the total liner and logistics segment, the profit increased year-over-year by JPY 40.5 billion to JPY 907.5 billion. The equity method affiliate investment profit of ONE of JPY 770.3 billion is also been recorded. In the bulk shipping business, the ordinary profit increased year-over-year by JPY 73 billion to JPY 212.1 billion. In the dry bulk business, the strong market condition started from second half of FY 2021.

Until first quarter of FY22. The second quarter, due to concern of economic slowdown, the market dropped. The automotive transportation business volume increased, and also the tanker business market recovered rapidly, which compensated for the overall performance. As the segment record high recurring profit was marked. Please go back to page three. Let me repeat. The total recurring profit increased year on year by JPY 106.6 billion to JPY 1,109.7 billion. Special PNL is added to this to reach JPY 1,012.5 billion net income. Based on this result, we increase the year-end dividend by JPY 10 to JPY 170 per share.

The interim dividend already paid out is JPY 150 per share before the 3-to-1 stock split. The annual dividend before the split will be JPY 1,560. After the split, per share annual dividend will be JPY 520. The shareholder return ratio is 26.1%. Please refer to page 8. As shown on the table to the left, out of the total profit increase of JPY 106.6 billion, large portion was yen depreciation's contribution. As you see from the waterfall chart to the right, the bulk shipping business also made a large contribution.

Far was the overview of the results for FY22. Next, I will explain the full year forecast for FY 2023. Please turn to page 9. For fiscal year 2023, we are forecasting the revenue of JPY 2,300 billion, recurring profit of JPY 200 billion, and net income of JPY 200 billion. Recurring profit and net income is projected to decline substantially from the previous year. Compared to the recurring profit of JPY 44.4 billion that we have generated in 2019 with no special factors related to COVID, it is fair to say that we have been able to grow steadily.

At the same time, it is in line with the target profit that we announced in the new midterm plan. We announced in March that is JPY 200 billion-JPY 300 billion of net income per annum for the following 4 years. The numbers may seem a bit conservative, we think it is an adequate level as the first year for the new midterm plan. Based on this forecast, we are raising the payout ratio outlook to 30%. We forecast JPY 120 of dividend per share for the full year, JPY 60 for the interim term, and JPY 60 for the year-end. As has been explained in our new midterm plan, we are planning to buy back JPY 200 billion worth of our own shares in fiscal year 2023 and 2024, for the two years.

When we buy back our shares, the overall number of shares is going to decline. In that case, the payout ratio of 30% is as the target. This JPY 120 number may change. In terms of how much numbers of shares we can buy back with JPY 200 billion, it is dependent on the stock market. We have not included that in this forecast. This JPY 120 dividend outlook is based on the number of shares before the share buyback. FY 2023 and FY 2024, in these 2 years, we will buy back JPY 200 billion worth of our own shares. In the new midterm plan, we have announced that. At early as possible, our commitment is to execute this.

When we announced our new midterm plan, there were questions why we're taking two years. It's going to be one year each. I said that it is not the intention to divide this in two years or dividing it in two bulks. In some cases, we will be buying back the full amount in one year. We will not exclude that option. That was my answer. Currently, in that sense, this JPY 200 billion, two years, that is what I am saying. In this fiscal year, executing the full worth of buying back our own shares, that is one of our options, and currently we are deliberating about the details. Alongside the dividend payment, we would like to return, we are considering the details about how are we going to return to the shareholders.

Next, I will explain about the full year forecast by each segment. Please turn to page 13. On the right-hand side, this is the blue column on the right, the forecast number of FY 2023. For the Liner Trade segment, we are forecasting JPY 69 billion, down JPY 722.3 billion year-over-year for the recurring profit. With the containership in market, from the second half of last year, the cargo volume declined sharply. At the same time, the spot freight rates have gone down significantly as well. In addition to the contracted freight rates that will manage to hold in the first half of this fiscal year, we anticipate cargo volumes will start to recover in the second half as excess inventory of some consumer goods will be resolved in consumer markets.

Due to these factors and from the support coming from a financial income, we forecast profit for this segment. Going to the air cargo transportation segment, as announced previously, we are negotiating with ANA Holdings to transfer all of the shares of Nippon Cargo Airlines Company. The forecast of this business is based on the assumption that the transfer will be completed by the first half. This means that we are forecasting a recurring profit of JPY 7 billion for the first half. Compared to the first half of the previous year, profit is going to decline by JPY 37 billion, and for the full year, the decline will be JPY 54.8 billion. We are forecasting weaker cargo volume and the recovery of the international passenger market, especially impacting the Asian market. Overall, however, the yield will trend at a low level. We anticipate a soft market.

As for the logistics segment, we are forecasting a recurring profit of JPY 33.5 billion, which is down JPY 20.8 billion year-over-year. We anticipate that profit levels for both air and ocean cargo will decline year-over-year, although the volume will go up and the profit will go down. On the other hand, in the contract logistics business, contribution is coming from price revisions and new business in North America. We forecast that the drop of the profit level will be limited. In the bulk shipping segment, our forecast is JPY 102 billion of recurring profit, which is a JPY 110.1 billion decline year-over-year.

In automotive transportation business, although volumes are expected to remain unchanged from the previous year, we forecast a slightly softer market as we anticipate the used cars in high-end markets, high-end cars and construction equipment go back to utilizing container ships. Furthermore, in terms of the rates for the automotive transportation, vessels are going at a very high level. Last year, we thought that maybe this will go down, but for the time being, we think that the freight rates will stay at a high level. Basically this will be reflected in the cost. For the dry bulk business, the small and medium-sized vessel segment is expected to trend below the strong levels during the last fiscal year. In the last fiscal years, specifically the...

In terms of what, basically some cargo that has been coming from the container business came over to this dry bulk business in last fiscal year, and that has contributed to the business, but this will not appear this year, leading to a lower outlook. In energy business, LNG carriers and offshore business is expected to remain steady, supported by mid to long-term contracts. The VLGC market expected to fall from the high levels at last year, specifically because new ships is going to be introduced into the market. Although, slightly, we think the market is going to happen. Going to page 16. This slide is the comparison between the 2022 results and the FY 2026 forecast that we announced in the midterm management plan for each of the indicators. Excuse me.

Yes, this is the right slide that should be shown. This is a comparison between 2022 and FY 26 forecast. For all of the indicators, we think we were able to make a good start against the 2026 targets that we have announced. One thing that stands out is that the shareholders equity and shareholders equity ratio is higher than last year's results. Please be reminded that this does not include the share buybacks that we are trying to hammer out the details. Lastly, please turn to page 17. This slide shows the status of the trends in the recurring profit of the Stable Freight Rate Business, which we have highlighted in the previous midterm plan, including the forecast for FY 23.

Among the bulk shipping business, those categorized as stable freight rate businesses will be on the left-hand side, the pink colored portion of the bars. In 2023, it has jumped up. Overall, the terminal business under the Liner Trade segment and the logistics business as well, all have grown steadily. This jump up in this area, it is a categories of a stable freight rate business, but by slight, slightly, has been impacted by the market rate. Automobiles basically is what is contributing to this rise. With this, I would like to end my presentation about the forecast of FY 2023. On our website-

Following the slides that have been shown today, we have included an appendix that has reference material, such as assumptions for the major indicators for each segment. Please refer to this on your leisure. That's all from me. Thank you very much for your attention. Thank you very much. We would like to move on to Q&A session. First, I have two question. The president talked about the freight rate of container shipping. Until the first half, there was a positive impact of the high freight rates. I was wondering what that means. From May, North America trade SC annual contract will be renewed. Are there customers with longer contracts? Could you explain why there is a positive impact up to first half? My second question, JPY 200 billion of recurring profit for this period is conservative.

When you break it down to the segments, which part is conservative? Do you have any comments you can share? Those are my two questions. Thank you very much for your question. Regarding the freight rate for container shipping, Mr. Banno will add explanation later on. Regarding my explanation, first point is, as you have said, for SC, for North America trade, the renewal is usually May first, and we have been negotiating. Some contracts are beyond May first, and for that part, the volume is not that large, but the high air freight rate will continue to some extent. When we negotiate on SC, what would be the agreed freight rate, compared to our assumption, it's slightly higher. The spot rate dropped significantly, but our rate was rather higher than the spot rate.

From that perspective, the first half will not decline as much as the spot rate. That is our forecast. Banno-san, do you have anything to add? What Mr. Soga said is that the renewal is on May. April and May renewals, the higher long-term contract rate will be applied. Especially in the first half of the first half, and that impact will be felt. That is the meaning. The second question, the recurring profit of JPY 200 billion on FY 2023, the area that our assessment is conservative is the bulk shipping segment, especially dry market forecast. This area, we are taking a stricter view. For all type of dry ships, vessels, we are setting our assumption conservatively.

As I have said, for automotive transportation, there are several negative factors that cannot be avoided this fiscal year, and we factored them in. It's not that last year's strong performance will be maintained as is, and that is another area that we are setting conservative assumptions. Liquid, LNG and tankers, those areas, especially for LNG, this is supported by medium to long-term contracts, this area will be stable. There's no particular inclination of views. There is, in terms of, the tight supply-demand market continuing, we are following that assumption. For logistics business, to a certain extent, we are conservative.

As I have said, the forwarding business for air and ocean, the cargo volume we expect to recover, especially for ocean, the shipping companies, container companies, the price gap from procurement is suppressed and the profit level will decline year-over-year, and that view is slightly conservative. That was my response. Let's go to the next question. My first question is for the automotive transportation business. The current demand supply situation-

The following a few years demand-supply situation, what is your take on that? Based on this anticipation for the Japanese car makers, basically you negotiate about the price increases or price revisions every years. What's going on there? I would like to confirm about that as my first question. My second question is that, at this time, Kono has become the CFO. I have not heard what your sense is in terms of what you think your role should be. Are you focusing on balance? In terms of the balance sheet, I think there are various ways to utilize the balance sheet, I would like to ask the CFO about his views. Thank you for your question. I will respond for your first question.

For the air, automotive, transportation market, well, last year around this period of time, actually, that the end of the year last year, specifically for the North American consumption demand, there was this threat that it's going to diminish, and we were looking at this conservatively. Actually, what happened was that this there was no drop in consumption. Actually, the appetite for consumption has been remaining at the same level. As long as far as we know, currently, the current demand-supply balance, or rather the state demand in terms of the demand for the following couple of years, I think that it will continue at this level.

In terms of supply, in terms of the capacity for the vessels, as you know, since in the beginning, early years of COVID, there has been shippers who thought that the cargo bottom is going to stop. For the older vintage ships, they scrap them, and they did not build new ships. Demand did not go up. In terms of supply, since 6 months after COVID, there was a sharp recovery. The demand-tight situation of demand and supply is still continuing until now. I assume that this situation will continue from this year until the end of next year. After that, all the new bulk ships for air automobile transportation is going to be come into the market.

I think the market will start to soften after these ships has been delivered. In terms of this year outlook, we have to be aware of the balance between the container ships, as I said in my presentation. The high rates at the high unit price cargo, like construction equipment, and they used to be utilized in container ships, but there was no capacity, so they started to utilize the automobile transportation vessels. For instance, forklifts or bulldozers or small cranes, excavators. Those tend to be high margin or high unit price. The container ships, the space has gradually become available, and they start to go back to utilizing container ships. With the additional capacity, there are passenger cars that still have a lot of backlog.

In terms of the freight unit price, it is lower, but this will start to come back. In terms of the utilization of this space, it's not that we're going to have a lower load ratio, but if you look at the overall freight income level, because of the difference of the mix, we think that we're going to see a lower level of revenue. This is going to happen this year and maybe continue into next year. Other points about export of, from China. In this past 2-3 years, it has doubled, like, each year. This year, maybe it will come to a saturation point for some kind of a plateau. Maybe it will be a plateau.

The reason I say this is the European customers who has been purchasing, they have been looking at quality, looking at after service. I think they are trying to find out the level, and I think basically they will analyze it this year. Export from China, it has been dramatically growing, but this growth may be more or less become moderate this year. That is one of another assumption. In terms of the contracts with Japanese customers, in reality, the contract with the freight rate, sometimes we renew it every year, but in some cases, we renew it when something happens. Maybe it's a kind of a semi-permanent type of contract. There are two types of contracts in Japan.

Currently, with the LNG energy ships, We are trying to put a premium on the freights, and we are negotiating. Based on the tightness of the demand support situation, and giving increasing the rates on the container ships, we're not doing that. For the overseas customers, like overseas auto OEMs or European OEMs, when basically depending on how the container ships are behaving, they are raising their rates or reducing the rates dramatically. I think this will continue to be the case this year and into next year. I hope I have answered your question. Thank you. Next, you have Mr. Kono, our CFO, will respond to your question. Thank you very much for your question.

This April, I have been assigned as a CFO, and I'm trying to catch up with my role or responsibility. To just introduce myself, in 2006, when I have been working in the energy division, so for 17 years I have been working in the energy division. Before that, in the 2000s, beginning of 2000s until 2006, I was in the corporate planning division. Back at that time, there has been a bulk boom in dry bulk. I think you remember that. There was. We ordered a lot of the vessels back at that time. In terms the investment standard as a company and in terms of the IRR, ROIC, we have been discussing about this investment criteria.

From before, in terms of investment, we have been utilizing and focusing on IRR. Not only this of course, but in terms of the criteria, we have been utilizing IRR. In terms of the segment performance, analysis or evaluation of ROIC, we have been aware of ROIC and looking at that. In terms of the assessment, we haven't been using that. This time around, in the mid new midterm plan, we have referred to ROIC, R-O-I-C, and going forward, in terms of the assessment of our company performance, we'll be utilizing ROIC. Maybe the first time in 17 years, maybe. Well, this is my personal opinion, but by utilizing ROIC, so I am not in the shipping business, but the financial situation has recovered a lot since then.

Based on the financial condition that we have right now, I would like to look at ROIC and other indicators so that we will be focusing on capital efficiency, how we utilize capital, and then how we return to the profit to our shareholders by striking a balance of these factors and enhance the corporate value. This is a very challenging but great job that I have. Another point I want to make as this, not as only as a CFO but as of first of April, the ESG Strategy division has been started up, and I am in charge of leading this. Decarbonization and GHG reduction is the two points that we are focusing on. In terms of the reduction of GHG from last year.

Excuse me, for next year, Europe, our carbon is going to be considered as cost. The reduction measures that we are focusing on this year and to accelerate these measures, currently some of that will be counted as cost. Going forward, this will be our competitiveness. I want, in terms of the administrative accounting standards internally, I want to put in a framework so this can be considered as a competitiveness. This is a very major task that I have. Decarbonization is from a company's accounting standard, there will be impact, of course. My role is to manage this side as well. This is a big challenge for me. This will be my aspiration, so to speak. Thank you very much for asking me, for my comment. Thank you.

We would like to move on to the next question.

I would like to ask one question, which is related to NCA. The first half recurring profit is factored into the plan. Let me confirm. Along with the sale, there's a cash income or a special PNL is not factored in. Am I correct? If that is not factored in during the period, you will need to reflect that to your plan. Price is not determined yet, so it should be difficult. Will that impact the dividend plan? Will that be the magnitude? I understand this is a difficult question, but if there's anything that you can share with us, please.

Thank you for your question. NCA, topic on NCA, as you say, based on the basic agreement, we are working towards final agreement, and we are in the process of negotiation. Therefore, the price or the method of share transfer is under negotiation. In this forecast, we could not factor in them in terms of the numbers. This, in fact, is excluded from this forecast. Once we reach a final agreement, and we are to execute the transaction, at that point, we will disclose. In case we need to make adjustment to the current plan, we will share the information with investors. So far, we cannot say for sure, but the dividend assumption and share buyback plans, we do not expect there will be a major impact on those. Thank you. Understood.

Any other questions? I have a follow-up question. In the midterm plan, there's JPY 270 billion. Each business, is there any businesses that is going over that or below that? This following few years, how are you going to increase the build-up of the profit so that you can reach these targets? Can I confirm about that? Thank you for waiting. Thank you for the follow-up question. What you have asked is that our midterm plan of the last year would be FY 2026. That is 4 years from now. At that point, the target recurring profit is JPY 270 billion. I think that was what you were referring to. Yes, that was what I was asking. Overall, to reach this target, FY 2023 forecast will be JPY 200 billion.

To be able to achieve JPY 270 billion, it means that in 4 years we'll have to accumulate JPY 70 billion of recurring profit. That is what we are anticipating. Where is What segment of business is going to contribute to this increase? ONE's numbers seems to be quite substantial right now. We are looking this, analyzing this closely and looking at other business from ONE business, like environment-related responses, investment in vessels. There's some major CapEx that we are anticipating. We are considering how much return that we can get from these investments. What we can say now is that we, with the automobile transportation vessels that we have already start preparing, utilizing I think basically we'll be using LNG as fuel.

20, we're going to have decided we're going to construct 20 vessels until 2028. We already ordered a lot of that, already 4 of these are operating. In 2024, 25, 26, gradually, these will be introduced, start operating. In terms of the contribution to the profit, I think, these will be a contribution, a great contributor. In terms of the LNG, we are doing our best to prepare these vessels, but in terms of when they'll start operation, will be after 2026. A lot of them will be start operation after 2026. In terms of, in terms of the contribution coming from the LNG, is more or less limited. On the other hand, the gas LPG, VLGC is what I am talking about.

For the VLGC, this year, the market is going to soften. That is our outlook. I think the actual demand will robustly build until 2026. With the besides ONE, this will be another factor that will contribute to our profit. In terms, I think we have to do a close analysis of business besides ONE. As I said, with these businesses outside of ONE will be the contributors to reach this JPY 270 billion. In terms of ONE, well, maybe this is preaching to the choir, from 2024 and onwards, there is as some concerns that will be a building capacity oversupply that will start from 2024.

In that sense, in terms of ONE, how are we going to bring this to a higher level and a more normalized level? I think we have to take various measures to be able to achieve that. Thank you. Another follow-up about the container ships. Currently, the demand-supply situation, what's happening there in North America free trades. With the April, I think we have enabled, the spot rate has been increased. In terms of the demand-supply situation containers, what is your understanding about that? I think basically some reflected, some are not to your outlook. If you look at the, in terms of the situation, volume or the construction of the ships, what's happening right now. I would like to ask Mr. Banno to respond to this question. Thank you for your question.

In terms of demand supply for the vessels, in the following three years, there will be new container ships that has been ordered. It will gradually start operation. The majority of this will be coming in for the second half of 2023 to 2024. In that sense, the number of ships is going to increase. In the past three years, the tight capacity of these ships and all the cargo cannot be loaded, I don't think that it's going to be a repetition of that situation. That means that the freight going up substantially in the following two years will not, it's not likely to happen. That is a take for the midterm.

For the short term, on the mid-April, the freight has been raised on spot, on spot market, but the U.S. economy has not fully recovered. If you look at the cargo volume and inventory situation, this has not changed. The cargo volume has not recovered in full. The raise in the freight rate from April onwards, is it going to continue to rise? We are not that optimistic. Currently, after the rate has been raised, how this is going to be? Is this going to hold or there is a possibility that the rates are going to fall again? That's a short-term outlook.

On the other hand, the container ship, ships with the liner business if we want to have a forecast for the 1 year, well, the first half of the first half, the rates will be relatively high. Maybe we can enjoy the contribution coming out of that. Afterwards, beyond that, it's going to drop. From fall, of course, seasonality is 1 reason, I think the U.S. inventory will more or less start to go down, and the cargo volume will start to recover. With that, the spot rate will start to go up. If that's the case, in some contracts that were shorter-term, not long. With those type of customers, there's a lot of room for us to negotiate for the renewal of the contracts.

Towards the second half of this fiscal year, I think it's going to recover gradually. That is the assumption behind our forecast. Thank you. It's a little bit early, but, with this, we would like to close the Q&A session. Thank you very much. With this, we would like to close the financial results presentation for FY 2022. Thank you very much for your participation.

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