Thank you very much for waiting. This is NYK. Thank you for your support. Thank you very much for attending this meeting despite your busy schedule. We would like to start the financial results for the quarter, First Quarter FY 2022 for NYK. I am Shimomura , Head of IR. First of all, I would like to explain the presenters of today. Deputy Managing Executive Officer, Chief Executive liner and Logistics Headquarters, Hiroki Harada.
Hello, this is Harada. Thank you very much.
We have the Senior Managing Executive Officer, CFO, Takaya Soga.
This is Soga. Thank you very much.
From Soga, CFO, he will make a presentation about the financial results for the first quarter of this FY 2022 and the full year forecast. We go to Q&A, and we plan to end this meeting by 4 P.M. The presentation is uploaded on our website, so please take a look. In terms of the questions, we will receive it through chat or through oral questions. I will explain about how to ask questions afterwards. This presentation, including the Q&A session, will be available on demand through our video streaming. Let's start the presentation. Mr. Soga, please.
I'm Soga of NYK. Thank you very much for attending this meeting despite your busy schedule. I would like to extend my gratitude to your support. Today, first of all, I will explain about the overview of the first quarter results of FY 2022. Next, I will explain about the revised forecast of the full year of fiscal 2022. After the presentation, we will turn to Q&A. First, refer to the presentation material that you have on hand, or we will be showing you the same page on the screen, so please refer to the screen, whichever is comfortable for you.
First, I would like to explain about the summary of the first quarter results. Please turn to page 6. This is about each of the income lines. From the top, revenue was JPY 673 billion. Operating profit JPY 89.1 billion. Recurring profit JPY 377.7 billion. And net income was JPY 343.3 billion. All the items have surpassed our initial forecast, resulting in very strong results. As for the revenue in the bulk shipping segment, the market remained favorable from the previous quarter in the dry bulk business, and automotive transportation business recovered.
Due to the impact of the exchange rate, revenue in the bulk shipping segment increased by JPY 74.5 billion year-over-year. In the Logistics segment, revenue rose by JPY 63 billion year-over-year due to the increase of freight rates. In total, we saw a JPY 168.4 billion increase of revenue year-over-year, achieving JPY 673 billion. For the recurring profit, logistics business, which consists of the liner Trade, logistics business, saw a large increase by JPY 176.1 billion year-over-year. Furthermore, in the bulk shipping segment, due to the favorable market in Dry Bulk improvement of the transportation efficiency in automotive transportation business, recurring profit increased by JPY 48.1 billion.
In total, recurring profit went up by JPY 224.1 billion year-over-year to JPY 377.7 billion. Taking into account extraordinary loss and gains and corporate tax for this quarter, net income increased by JPY 192.2 billion year-over-year, reaching JPY 343.3 billion. To follow up on the extraordinary loss, in view of the unpredictable situation in Russia and Ukraine, from an accounting perspective for the LNG transportation for Sakhalin-II project, we decided to review the asset value. Accordingly, we have booked JPY 17.8 billion of extraordinary loss in this quarter.
Next, I will explain about the performance of each segment at the recurring profit level in more detail. Please turn to page seven. First, for the liner Trade business. This is on the very top column. Recurring profit was JPY 270.4 billion, a JPY 159 billion increase year-over-year. The major reason behind this is the continuing strong market condition in the containership business of ONE, our equity method company. There has been some easing of the congestion at some of the major ports of the U.S., such as in the West Coast, but this has not led to the resolution of the disruption in land transportation.
There was some impact coming from the lockdown in Shanghai and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but overall, robust transportation demand continued. Some adjustments were conducted from the very high spot freight rates, but as the rates increased through the renewal of long-term contracts, this supported the average price. As a result, recurring profit was better against our initial outlook. In air cargo transportation segment, recurring profit was JPY 24.6 billion, up JPY 9.3 billion year-over-year. The tightness in demand and supply eased somewhat through the reopening of the international passenger flights. However, a favorable market condition is still continuing.
We had to suspend flights on the Shanghai route due to the lockdown and reduced flights for the European service due to the ongoing situation in Russia and Ukraine, but freight rates stayed at a high level. Going to the logistics segment, recurring profit was JPY 19.3 billion, a JPY 7.7 billion increase year-over-year. In the forwarding business, both ocean freight and air freight saw a decline in handling volume year-over-year. However, sales pricing continued to be high, and additional demand, such as urgent transportation, boosted earnings.
logistics business, although personnel costs soared, supported by movement of general consumer goods, performance stayed strong. Lastly, turning to the bulk shipping business, which consists of the automotive transportation business, dry bulk, and energy. Recurring profit was JPY 64.1 billion, increasing JPY 48.1 billion year-over-year. In the automotive transportation business, we continued to be impacted from the suspension of production and shipping of vehicles due to the lack of automotive components coming from semiconductor shortages and the lockdown in Shanghai.
However, through our efforts in optimizing vessel deployment and collection of alternative cargo, we were able to maintain the same level of transportation volume as of last year. In the dry bulk business, the market rate for charter vessels remained strong. Specifically, favorable conditions continued for small and medium-sized vessels such as Panamax, Handy, and Handymax. As for the energy business, market condition for some tankers, such as VLCC, the very large tankers, remained weak. However, the VLGC market improved. As mentioned previously, for the LNG vessels, as I have mentioned, we booked an extraordinary loss for this.
But on the recurring profit level, earnings remained stable, supported by medium to long-term contracts, including offshore businesses. For your reference, what I have just explained is written from page three to page five in the presentation material. Please turn to page eight. This is the chart and the graph. To sum up, in the first quarter of 2022, as shown in the graph on the right-hand side, all segments booked an increase of profit from the previous year. If you refer to the chart on the left-hand side, out of the JPY 224.1 billion profit increase, about JPY 25 billion is coming from the weaker yen.
This has been the outline of the first quarter results for FY 2022. Let me explain the forecast for FY 2022. Please look at page 12. This graph is also showing the forecast of the performance. As a result of the review from the initial forecast announced in May, revenue, operating profit, recurring profit, and net income are revised upward. The revenue is expected to be JPY 2.5 trillion, up JPY 200 billion from the initial forecast. Operating profit, JPY 250 billion, up JPY 63 billion. Recurring profit, JPY 1.4 trillion, up JPY 280 billion. Net income, JPY 960 billion, up JPY 240 billion.
In terms of the breakdown, the recurring profit in the first half will be JPY 720 billion, and the second half will be JPY 290 billion. Net income in the first half will be JPY 670 billion, and the second half will be JPY 290 billion. Most of the expected increase in revenue and profit are concentrated in the first half, primarily due to high level first quarter actual outperforming the initial forecast and the outlook to maintain the comparable level in the second quarter.
In the second half, after the third quarter, as it is extremely difficult to predict economic outlook due to interest rate policy of each country and the timing and the magnitude of softening of freight rate at the aftermath of the convergence in logistics and supply chain disruption, we must retain relatively conservative position on all business segments. Having said that, our guidance in the second half is not overly conservative. Exchange rate assumption is changed from 120 JPY per $1 to 127.62 JPY, and bunker price assumption is changed from $741.25 per metric ton to $838.24 per metric ton. Let me walk you through the full year forecast on recurring profits of each segment.
Please turn to page 13. On this chart, this is in comparison with the previous year. Starting from liner Trade, the recurring profit is expected to be JPY 770 billion, up JPY 220 billion from the initial forecast. The environment surrounding container shipping still has multiple unpredictable fluctuating factors, including impact of lockdown by COVID-19, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, soaring resource prices, effect of port labor negotiations at the West Coast of North America, and economic outlook based on policy interest rate in each country. Although ONE does not disclose forecast, as it is difficult to indicate reasonable outlook, certain assumptions are made and reflected on our full year forecast.
The assumptions include fluctuating factors in the first half, as I mentioned earlier, yet we retain the assumptions of continued outperformance in the second quarter, as in the first quarter. Gradual stabilization of demand, mainly in North America in the second half, convergence of logistics supply chain disruption, normalization of supply-demand balance, and downwards adjustment of extremely high spot freight rate. To be supported by long-term freight rate renewed at the backdrop of rising spot freight rate to a certain extent.
Thus, our forecast for increase in recurring profit for liner is JPY 220 billion, of which JPY 200 billion will be in the first half and JPY 20 billion in the second half. air cargo, we expect recurring profit of JPY 77 billion, up JPY 15 billion from the initial forecast. It is still anticipated to take some time for tight supply-demand balance to loosen by the recovery of the international passenger flights, and coupled by increase of long-term multiple year contracts, yield index is expected to stay at high level for the time being.
Logistics business, we expect recurring profit of JPY 48 billion, up JPY 10 billion from the initial forecast. Although both ocean freight and air freight do not experience drop in freight rate, as we factored in at the beginning of the year, and retain relatively high level rate during the first half, we anticipate gradual decline in profit level as supply-demand balance normalizes after the second half. Lastly, in bulk shipping, we expect recurring profit of JPY 154 billion, up JPY 40 billion from the initial forecast.
In automotive transportation, although the impact of decreased production of finished cars resulting from semiconductor and parts shortage is still uncertain, steady transportation volume is expected to be retained by capturing transportation demand for construction machinery and used cars. While dry bulk business continues to enjoy favorable market, mainly for small sized vessels in the first half, market for each vessel type is expected to weaken slightly in the second half. Yet overall, we expect to see continued steady performance.
In energy business, VLCC market is expected to recover to a certain level in the second half, but it may be difficult to see the recovery. VLGC is expected to improve compared with the initial forecast. Strong performance is expected, supported by medium- to long-term contracts for LNG carriers and offshore businesses. What I just explained are covered in pages nine to 11 of the materials you're seeing on the screen. Please refer to the material as well. Lastly, I will touch on dividend. Please turn to page nine of the materials. At the very bottom of this page, you see the description on dividend.
As I mentioned, the dividend forecast is based on the revised full year forecast. In accordance with the basic policy to refer to consolidated payout ratio of 25% as an indicator, the interim dividend will be JPY 1,000 per share, and the year-end dividend will be JPY 145 per share based on the number of shares after 3-for-1 common stock split, calculating from anticipated net profit for the first half and the second half of FY 2022.
Based on the number of shares before stock split, year-end dividends will be JPY 435, and full year dividends will be JPY 1,435, which is up JPY 350 per share in interim dividends and JPY 30 per share in year-end dividends, and up JPY 380 per share in full year dividend. That concludes the overview of Q1 results for FY 2022 and revision of forecast for FY 2022. Thank you very much for your attention.
Thank you. We'd like to go into the Q&A session. Let's start the Q&A session. I have three questions. First of all, my first question is: Takaya Soga, you have explained about the container shipping freight rate. The spot rate has been going down, but it has been supported through the annual contract rates. If you look at the past experience, when the spot rate goes down, the annual contract rate will go down as well. That may be a risk. But you are predicting that is not happening, so what is the reason behind this? That's the first question.
The second question is that this is on page thirteen. How are you going to look at the second logistics business, year-over-year profit is going to decline year-over-year. air cargo is going to go up. What is the background? It's in the same market, but difference between the integrators and the forwarders, maybe there's a different outlook. I would like to hear your view upon that.
The third question, again, this logistics business. this is on page 17. In terms of the air freight. The first half, 170, 202 on the first half in terms of the volume. Second half, 202. The first half, the volume has gone down. In second half, it's going to go up. Maybe, maybe the volume that has not been able to carry by the ships, and maybe that will impact the second half. But, i n terms of the increase of the volume in the second half, any- i f you have any specific reasons, would you please give us that? Would you please, answer my questions?
Thank you for your questions. First, Harada-san, would you like to start with?
Logistics business, your question, three questions about those. I would like to respond to your question. Your first question was about the spot rate of the container shipping. If it goes down, it will impact the full year annual contracts. That is the past experience. What are you anticipating for this time around? First of all, as you have pointed out, in the past for the container shipping business, so as a fact, for the certain period of time, the spot- i f the spot freight goes under the annual contract for some level of time, when there is renegotiation for the annual contract, the cargo will basically go through the forwarder's spot market.
In this time around, through the normalization, to some extent, that will happen. That is our assumption. In the first half, depending on the route, there are some other things happening. If you look, it has not reached a certain timeline and a certain level, so it has not impacted annual contract right now. For the first half, we do not think that this will happen. Going into the second half, specifically in the second, the latter half of the quarter, depending on the route, this will happen.
As a result, for the fourth quarter, of course around January, the annual contract will be renewed in some cases. These type of contract renewals will be impacted. That's our outlook for the second half. What we have experienced in the past through the normalization process, it will happen specifically for the second half. That is our assumption, that is our outlook, and that is the basis of our outlook for the full year. The second point, well, what you have referred, I have not looked up the figure specifically, but in terms of the air freight business, the so-called asset type NCA.
In terms of air cargo business. The AFF, the freight forwarding business, there, I think that's a bit referring to there would be a difference in the quarter. What's happening in the market right now is that, generally speaking, the forwarders towards air cargo business operators, they think the demand is strong and they try to take up the space. It was a mixed cargo, and then it was about six-month contract. It's going to one year, which means some customers, they have two-year agreement on the BSA, according to the BSA. For air cargo business, certain level of foreseeable revenue can be expected.
On the other hand, for the forwarding business, it's not that the cargo movement is very strong right now. Basically, if you have the space, that will come out as expense or as a cost. To be able to get the volume as much as possible, there will be some competition in terms of at the rate level. As a result, the asset type business, well, NCA, that's asset type business or the air freight business, there will be a difference in the business. That is my understanding.
To your third question about the cargo and the- w e do not think in the second half there will not be some cargo that will be loaded in the ships. In terms of the normal cargo, we do have concerns about the U.S. economy, but in terms of the seasonality, the moving of the cargo is between October and December is strong. In terms of the air freight, from autumn onwards, if you look at the demand from the customer side against the space that they have taken up, I think basically there is a certain level of cargo volume that can be expected. Compared to the past, I think basically there'll be some movements in the cargo. Thank you very much your question.
That was my question. Thank you.
There has been no transition from sea air cargo. Actually, it has been seen that already. In the second half, we do not expect that type of thing happening. That is the type of thing that we expect in terms of the cargo movement.
Next, I have two questions. The first question is about the Sakhalin-II impairment, and this is what I would like to hear. Looking at this for LNG transportation. With respect to tanker, I think it's different, but do you have impairment on tanker? I would like to know the details about the impairment process. The second question is somewhat related, and this is related air cargo transportation business.
Looking from the previous assumption, the profit level seems to be revised upward on a full-year basis. Looking at the volume of the cargo, it seems like it's dropping and yield is extremely high. This is the reason why the profit is high. The cargo volume is decreasing, but since there is a tightening of supply and demand, the profit is increasing. Am I correct in my understanding? Those are my two questions.
All right. Starting from the Sakhalin-II question, Takaya Soga is going to explain, and the remaining AFF will be explained by Hiroki Harada.
Thank you. On impairment of Sakhalin-II project, you asked us about the details of this impairment. In this Sakhalin-II project, this is LNG transportation. In our case, we have the joint venture with the ocean freight company in Russia, and we have two vessels for transporting LNG. This is the current status. Due to this Russia-Ukraine situation, there are economic sanctions, and by avoiding that, for continuity of this project transportation, the counterpart, the Russian transportation company, for the equity that the joint venture partner have, we are trying to acquire their stake.
We have 100% of these two vessels are related to LNG transportation for this Sakhalin-II project. Since we have acquired from the partner, we have 100% stake of this joint venture. Going forward, will this project in the future progress according to the plan? The uncertainty is expected at the moment. We have consulted with the accountants, and as of now, because there are uncertainties for this level, we decided to go through the impairment process for the time being.
That is the background. Realistically speaking, this transportation is still continuing. As to what will occur in the future, we still do not know. If this continues, then impairment may recover, but there are uncertainties. This is accounting related treatment to have the impairment for the time being. I just responded to your question. Thank you.
For the second question, air cargo transportation on the full year profit, there seems to be upward revision. The cargo volume is not increasing, so yield should be improving compared to what was expected at the beginning. In a nutshell, your understanding and your analysis is correct. With respect to yield, the biggest reason for the increase in yield is more than what we expected. As I mentioned, a half year, mixed loading, is now changed to more than one year, BSA. The supporting freight rate is very high, and that portion is now increasing. That's one aspect.
As for spot, in some of the routes- b ecause of the sudden increase, for example, in Hong Kong, there is increasing number of flights in Cathay Pacific, and the market declined temporarily. What's happening is not impacting to the long-term contract by the spot price. Furthermore, one of the reasons are boosting the yield is a semiconductor-related charter. A high freight rate is now visible. As a result, the yield is increasing.
The volume is not increasing, but the profitability is improving. The demand and supply situation is not so distorted. A part of air cargo transporters have increased the space in some areas. The long-term yield with a higher charter freight rate, the average is high and the performance is improving. That is our view.
Thank you. About the Sakhalin-II, JPY 17.9 billion. In terms of book value, technically speaking, it has become zero. Am I correct?
The vessel itself, we have acquired the two vessels, so those are remaining as our assets.
I see. So, the company part is now zero?
Yes, it's like a goodwill, and that part is impaired.
I see. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Next. I have two questions. One logistics business, the ocean logistics. JPY 90.3 billion for the first quarter is profit. The fourth quarter was JPY 13 billion, so it has improved even more. I'd like to know the background of this. I think it is the improvement of the margin, but I want to know in more detail. For the other companies, the first quarter forwarding profit compared to the fourth quarter has gone down. What is the difference between you and the other peers? I would like to know the reason.
The second question is about the container freight rate and the current situation. It is a peak season, but we don't see any rebound. Why? I would like to know your view about that. If you just look at the news flow, in North America, the cargo handling is good. In some ports, there may be restricting the container being loaded. But it doesn't seem that the freight rate is going up for containers. I would like to know your view about that.
This logistics business, so Harada-san is going to respond.
First, I would like to respond to the liner and logistics-related business. First of all, in terms of YLK 's performance, specifically compared to the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter of this year, the difference between these two quarters compared to other forwarders, I think you're comparing it to the other forwarders' performance. In terms of YLK, in this the April to June three months, I think there has been some special demand that came into this first quarter.
That what appeared in March as well, but there has been some cargo that has not been able to be loaded in these by sea vessels, and that has been handled by air freight. That impact was seen until April and up into May. The special demand was there. That is the reason for the first quarter of this fiscal year that have been impacting the first quarter results. That's the reason why we have been done better than the fourth quarter of last year. The fourth quarter, again, this is special situation.
Fourth quarter, it should have been a high season, but- SG&A, that would be the bonuses, et cetera. We had to pay those bonuses in the fourth quarter, and that was booked on the fourth quarter. Because of this reason, the fourth quarter and the first quarter difference, for NYK turn out this way. In terms of the cargo volume, it's basically the special demand for [air to LL]. In terms of the peak season rebound is not seen, but if you look at the situation, the freight rate has made some adjustments on the spot market.
Of course. In terms of the cargo, demand is not as strong as seen in the peak season. The peak actually isn't happening right now, maybe the demand is a bit weak. On top of that, the North American side, because the situation has improved and the ships start to return, and there has been supply coming here from Asia, the space has become available. From the Asia side, there has been some supply of the space, and then, basically, the space is sold.
On the other hand, mainly the railway, there has been some congestion of the cargo. Going forward, I think we have to observe the situation going forward. In terms of the peak season, in terms of the cargo situation, we don't think that there'll be a seasonal peak. Maybe the situation will turn and then available from Asia is there, and then there's some competition. We don't know how the situation is going to trend going forward. We have to look at the cargo situation and observe going forward. That's our view. Thank you.
Going back to your first question about the special demand that happened for the first quarter. In the first quarter it will be automotive components, semiconductors, those type of cargo. I think it's basically the automotive related components. Thank you.
Thank you very much. I have two questions. The first question is about the container shipping, and as you mentioned, the spot freight rate. It seems like there is improvement at ports as well. The volume continues to be very strong after February. But looking at our ports, it seems like we don't see so much improvement in terms of the processing and the handling. But can you explain on that aspect on ports? The second one is related to logistics and air cargo transportation. You mentioned that there was special demand in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, is there a major difference in situations that there is a drop? Coming to the third question, in terms of the demand, I think you are trying to reduce demand on a four-year basis, and you are also trying to revise downward for the second half. Are we beginning to see the slowdown in demand? This is the point I would like to confirm. Thank you. Then, can we ask Harada-san to respond to the questions?
Thank you for your questions. Starting from the first question. Thank you for the question about the spot, the freight rate for container shipping. Looking at the port situation, it does not seem like there is dramatic increase in labor, and there seems to be improvement. Does that create an impact to the spot, the freight rate, and what is happening now and what will be the impact of going forward?
Looking at ports, originally local cargos compared to some time, we are seeing more workforce and we are receiving more cargo. It seems like, for the time, for some time, railway was quite favorable and we no longer have much risk of infection. More than 100 vessels, for example, in Los Angeles, there was a stopping of about 100 vessels to 20 vessels. Even with the 20 vessels, this is higher than the normal situation. With respect to railway, currently, the railway transportation seems to have a congestion and we have more cargos in yard.
What we are concerned about is that it's taking more time for receiving the cargos locally. I'm hoping that there isn't much relationship with the inventories. It seems like there is an increase. If this kind of situation is going to continue, it's probably sometime later that we will see the complete resolution of the port situations. This may create an impact to the spot freight rate, depending on whether the vessels would come back or not. For the time being, it's not bad. As I mentioned earlier, a seasonal momentum with respect to this fiscal year, we feel that there isn't any seasonal momentum this year.
In logistics air cargo transportation for the first quarter and the second quarter, especially in case of NYK in logistics, second quarter seems to be weaker compared to the first quarter. This may be repetition, but the special demand from the fourth quarter ended in May. In comparison with that, because there was so much profit from that impact, it seems like there is a slightly weaker second quarter. The logistics figures in the second quarter will be not as strong. On the other hand, a customer is giving us the information that there may be recovery after fall, including semiconductor. The second quarter is slightly weaker in terms of the figures.
I think that is how you can understand. This is similar air cargo transportation as well. First quarter had a special demand from a switchover from sea to air. In case of a shipping from Japan, there seems to be some slowdown during summer. Second quarter seems to be weaker compared to the first quarter, but this is not a dramatic aggravation. First quarter was better, so it's just a matter of comparison. In terms of the overall demand, this can be applied to L and L business. No matter which business you see, there is a certain level of demand. We are not seeing that there isn't any imbalance of the supply and demand.
Normally entering in fall, mainly in the United States and looking at the current situation in the world, that there could be possible recession. Some people claim that- w e are not receiving information that the customers say that the cargos will drop. As we are expecting, that would begin to take place in fall and that may reduce the demand. Also in terms of the forecast, compared with the first half, we must take a more conservative stance, specifically against the possible recession. We are not seeing that the customers are trying to adjust a cargo.
Well, may I just ask one follow-up question? If, after the second half, if the volume drops, at the NCA, long-term contract freight rate, can that be maintained? Or just like, container shipping, will there be room for revision, if the spot rate becomes weaker? May I confirm about the downside risk? Thank you very much.
About the downside risk, compared with the long-term contract of the liner air cargo transportation, six-month BSA may be retained. What the customers are saying is that there may be more demand from fall, but it may require more space. So far, for example, what was acquired by NCA and BSA, a freight rate, we are not seeing any downside risk as to the impact. Thank you very much for your response. Are there any other questions?
Thank you. This is about the container shipping business. I have two questions. On the second quarter freight rate and compared to the first quarter, what is your outlook? Up to now, the freight rate will be gradually going down step by step. That has been your outlook. Has your outlook changed or is it unchanged? As compared to the SCFI and CCFI, what is your assumptions? For the first quarter, CCFI has gone down, but your, in terms of your correlation to your freight rate, how, what was your correlation? No more, not much of an adjustment? I would like to hear about that. My second question is about the demand for the containers.
If you look at the transportation category for in terms of furniture, home appliances, due to the impact of the retail situation, there's an adjustment. If you look at the total, transportation volume in the North American route, is still holding up. It's still strong. In terms of risk, it is there, but the overall, transportation volume is strong. What is your evaluation about the situation? Would you please explain about that?
First, you asked about the two questions about the container business. Mr. Harada, please, would you respond?
Thank you very much for your question. I would like to respond to your two questions. This is related to the LNL business. I would like to respond. For the second quarter rate, for the container shipping, what is our outlook? As I have said, the spot rate, it has already started to go into adjustment, and in the short period, it has been impacted the annual, rates. But if it has to continue for a certain period of time with a certain gap. Although you have to have that to impact the annual rate, so that is our experience. In the second quarter, there will be some adjustment for the spot rate.
During the second quarter, whether it will have an impact for the annual contract, that is your question, I think. Quick answer is that, no. Because basically if you look at the cargo demand, if you look at the space availability. I do, I'm looking into the situation. We don't think that will happen in the second quarter. Compared to the first quarter, in some spot, a freight rate on average compared to the second quarter will be lower than the first quarter. We do not think that will have impact on the annual contracts. If that is to happen, that will start from the third quarter onwards, going into the second half, that is.
That is our assumption- so, ONEs, well, we cannot elaborate about the performance of ONE, but the lower floor and the SCFI trend between ONE, so how much there will be a change. It seems that there is a correlation. It is synchronized, if you look at the past track record. The SCFI's index is very close to the movement that the ONE is assuming in terms of the spot rate. That is our take. In terms of North America, that's basically in terms of the cargo volume or the cargo handling, it's not basically the things that they have been handling. I think basically this is where it is very difficult to have an outlook.
Some information points that with the Walmart, Target, the U.S. customers, well, that would be our customers, these retailers, they have started to pile up inventory. The sales have started to go down. We do have that type of information. If you look at the more short-term situation, is that impacting the cargo movement a lot? No. When and what shape will this come out? That is reason why we are saying that, the timing and the deepest depth of the normalization, we don't know.
With ONE, it has not been able to make that kind of outlook as well. We do have an assumption, but that said, we do not think that this situation will continue from autumn and onwards, if you look at the macroeconomic situation and the U.S. market situation. Putting that into account, the demand for a certain level through normalization, that will impact the freight rate. That is the only way that we can assume. That is reason why we have reflected a risk for our outlook. That's all.
Going back to your first response. The spot rates as an average, second quarter is going to be lower than the first quarter, but the full year is going to go up. The profit, the first quarter between the second quarter is not going to change. Is that your take?
Well, in practicality, everything is going to be reset starting from April. Some of the cargo will start from March, May or June, or that will be the seasons in the US. In some cases, there's some booking, but there's some rollovers because we cannot handle all the cargo. The higher rates will be pushed forward. There'll be some, you know, rollover of the rates. In the long-term average of the rates compared to the first quarter, the second quarter, there's some peak season surcharge, although we have not been able to get all of that for the annual contract. Maybe the July to September will be high.
But for the spot rates, as you have pointed out, if you look at the situation, the spot for this, for the July to September will be lower. Basically, things are trending as you have assumed in terms of the average rate, that is. The average rate is higher than our initial outlook. In the second quarter, we don't think that the rate is going to go down sharply in the second quarter based on the reasons I have said, because annual contract is there compared to the first quarter. It will be higher by a certain level. The spot rate will go up and down a bit. In total, the average rate will not be that different from the first quarter to the second quarter.
Going to second response. Sorry for going into detail. Furniture, basically in terms, the container volume is down from the last year. For ONE, is that the same situation?
I'm sorry. By item, by customer data, I do not have that with me. But, a ccording to the customer information, we do not have the situation that, from the customers saying to us that the booking is going to go down from now on. On the other hand, we do not have all the information from the customers in terms of how the cargo is going to be from autumn onwards for next year. We think that we should reflect some risk in this area.
Understood. Thank you. It seems like we don't have any more questions. We are a little bit earlier than the scheduled time, but we would like to close the Q&A session. With this, we would like to conclude the meeting for our financial results for FY 2022. Please jot down your response. Thank you very much for your attendance today. We would like to close the meeting.