CD Projekt S.A. (WSE:CDR)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Mar 25, 2025

Operator

Hello, and welcome to CD Projekt's FY 2024 earnings call. There will be a presentation followed by Q&A. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the call over to Michał Nowakowski, Joint CEO of CD Projekt.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

Good afternoon. My name is Michał Nowakowski, and I'll be your host during today's conference dedicated to the CD Projekt Group's financial results for 2024. I will be co-presenting with Piotr Nielubowicz, and after the presentation, we will invite you to participate in a Q&A session where we'll be joined by Karolina Gnasz, our VP and Head of Investor Relations. 2024 was the year during which we achieved a major milestone in the development of The Witcher 4, previously codenamed as Project Polaris. In November, we announced that the game had entered the full-scale production phase. A team consisting of over 400 developers is now focused on scaling up the solutions developed during pre-production and validating them across the entire game. The cherry on top came in December, when at the Game Awards event, we unveiled the first massive trailer of The Witcher 4.

That marks the beginning of a new saga with Ciri as the protagonist and a natural successor to Geralt embarking on her own journey to become a professional monster slayer. The fan anticipation for this new chapter was clear at TGA, where the trailer became the most-watched of the event, with over 8 million views on IGN's channel within the first 72 hours after the event. Similarly, global media outlets were thrilled by our reveal. The Witcher 4 generated great interest, being the most talked-about game after the Game Awards. It dominated headlines and media articles, proving that the game is hungry for more stories to be told in the Witcher universe. Our second franchise, Cyberpunk, is also riding high. The base game consistently maintains a high recent review score on Steam, which currently stands at a level of 95%.

This shows that our commitment to the game is highly appreciated by the community. Additionally, last year, Cyberpunk 2077 won additional accolades, including a BAFTA Award in the Evolving Game category. Looking at sales, in November, we announced that over 30 million copies of Cyberpunk 2077 had been sold, along with over 8 million copies of the Phantom Liberty expansion. We are not stopping there. Cyberpunk 2077 is coming to the macOS platform this year, which will allow us to reach new players and further expand the Night City community. The game will be available to purchase in the Mac App Store, GOG.com, Steam, and Epic Store. In parallel, we are also broadening the universe built around the Cyberpunk games. In 2024, we announced another animation project, which is currently under development and in the future will be released on the Netflix platform.

That is just some of what we have in store regarding Cyberpunk. Looking forward, I would like to give you a brief overview of the current status of our other ongoing projects. Regarding Project Sirius, we have decided to integrate the Molasses Flood team into our studio structure by merging the company with CD Projekt RED to ensure even better alignment in the scope and direction of the project. Although this naturally entails some changes in the project leadership, the project itself is proceeding. Moving on to the next project, The Witcher Remake. Due to production process dependencies, among others related to assets and technology, we have decided to temporarily integrate its development with ongoing work on The Witcher 4. As a result, a small portion of the Fool's Theory team is currently supporting The Witcher 4 team.

Our goal is to have the necessary assets, tools, and pipelines ready for a more efficient development of The Witcher Remake. As we have mentioned before, we're also currently working on some undisclosed projects, one of which is carried out in collaboration with full Ciri. As for what's next for the Cyberpunk franchise, the Orion team is heading towards the end of the concept phase, and this means that we'll be entering the pre-production phase in the coming weeks. Moving to the third IP, the vision of Hadar has progressed over the last year, becoming more detailed. Internal assumptions and ideas have been forged into main pillars that guide us forward. This year, the team's focus is on further development of our new IP and the work on the game's story, while prototyping some gameplay solutions specific to Hadar.

The mentioned activities require a greater workload, and hence the recent recruitment announcements for new positions. As for our current allocation of development teams, the differences in team sizes versus the end of October, the overall number of developers increased by about 10% to over 700. The Witcher 4 development team remains above 400 developers, a level we expect to maintain, with adjustments made as project needs evolve. Orion has seen the highest rate of growth since October 2024 and continues to be our primary recruitment focus. We plan to double the team working on the new Cyberpunk game by the end of 2025. Regarding our other projects in the pipeline, we plan to increase recruitment in response to evolving project needs.

As the last thing from my part, I'm excited to share that we have entered into a strategic partnership with Scopely to develop a game set within one of CD Projekt's IPs. That will be all from me, and now time for some financials, which means I'm handing over to Piotr.

Piotr Nielubowicz
CFO, CD Projekt

Thank you, Michał, and good evening, everyone. Let's start the presentation with our 2024 financials with the consolidated profit and loss account on slide 13. Our group sales revenue for 2024 reached PLN 985 million, which corresponds to 80% of the revenues for the previous year when the Phantom Liberty expansion was launched. Cyberpunk and Phantom Liberty were the main drivers of our sales, bringing PLN 589 million to the group. It's worth mentioning that the Witcher products family remained a strong and stable contributor to our revenues in 2024, with PLN 163 million in sales, slightly more than the year before. Sales of goods and materials were mainly driven by GOG, which, looking at non-CD Projekt products, also recorded some growth versus the preceding year.

The main reason for the costs of products and services sold being higher in 2023 than in 2024 was the premiere-related higher amortization of Cyberpunk and Phantom Liberty in Q3 and Q4 of 2023. Speaking of amortization, the most recent track record of the strong performance of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk has proven their longevity. Based on the achieved sales results, we reevaluated our historic assumptions regarding both titles' useful life. This exercise led to adjustments in our assumptions for the amortization schemes of the products. More details on this can be found in our 2024 financial statements. An important update and important note: the new amortization schemes will be applied starting from 2025. Moving on to operating costs, our selling expenses decreased by PLN 108 million, down to PLN 135 million.

The savings came mostly from the following two areas: lower Cyberpunk IP publishing costs in the non-premiere 2024 year and lower costs of product maintenance, and I will come back to that in a moment. Parallel to that, in 2024, we involved ourselves more in the early-phase research works on our future products. That was the main driver of growth for the administrative expenses. On top of the projects you know, such as Orion, Witcher Remake, and Hadar, five new product initiatives were kicked off last year, both in-gaming and non-gaming. The research work costs also include our constantly growing AI engagement. Moving further to other operating income and expenses, the positive balance of PLN 30 million in 2023 was supported by the partial reversal and partial write-off of our development expenditures related to Project Sirius. This year, no such one-off transactions supported our results.

The surplus for financial operations reported for 2024 at PLN 64 million came mainly from the usual drivers, such as interest from bonds and deposits. Moving further to our income tax, in 2023, we recorded a relatively high amount of withholding tax that could not be deducted from our local tax settlements, which increased the overall value of current income tax reported for that fiscal year. In 2024, the tax due on income generated by the activities taxable within the IP Box tax regime amounted to over PLN 18 million. At the same time, the reported negative effective tax rate was mainly due to a change in the net deferred tax asset calculation totaling over PLN 58 million.

This was related mainly to the disclosure of the historical costs qualified for the R&D relief as part of an adjustment to the tax declarations for years 2020 to 2023, in connection with obtaining favorable decisions of the Supreme Administrative Court and an individual interpretation relating to the R&D relief. Finally, our net profit for the last year reached PLN 470 million, only 2% less than what we achieved in the comparative period of the Phantom Liberty premiere. The overall net profitability of the group increased to 48%, while for CD Projekt RED alone, this factor was 58%. Annual reports always make me take a longer-term perspective on our business. Let's proceed to the next slide, presenting over a decade of our revenues, costs, and expenses. Two key events mark our growth and cycles: the premiere of The Witcher 3 in 2015 and the premiere of Cyberpunk 2077 in 2020.

The order of things was different after each launch, but now, for each of the cycles, we have a five-year perspective to compare against, which I'm going to present on the next slide. I'm proud to show that our revenues for the five-year Cyberpunk cycle between 2020 and 2024 were 2.3 times higher compared to the five-year Witcher 3 cycle that started in 2015. Cyberpunk clearly brought us to a new level. Even better news, net profits for the group presented in green in the recent five-year Cyberpunk era were 2.5 times higher than what we had achieved within the five years following the launch of The Witcher 3. I believe this is an impressive growth that we aim to continue, as reflected in our long-term product outlook and the goals of our incentive program for the coming years.

Now we can move on to the next slide, number 16, our consolidated balance sheet. On the asset side, first, the core of our business: expenditures on development projects. The balance here increased by PLN 168 million. The new developments, mainly The Witcher 4, Sirius, and Orion, but also some that are still unannounced, were responsible for a PLN 274 million increase, parallel to a decrease coming from the amortization driven mainly by the already released Cyberpunk 2077 and Phantom Liberty. Along with the recent and planned growth of our development activity, we also continue investing in our local infrastructure, as visible in the PLN 77 million increase of the property, plant, and equipment line item. This was mainly driven by the ongoing construction of a new building at our Warsaw campus. Our dev team working on The Witcher 4 will move in in the middle of this year.

The growth of our deferred tax assets comes mainly from the discussed recalculation of the R&D tax relief, which we will be utilizing in future fiscal years. The total value of cash, deposits, and bonds included in the three asset items marked with an asterisk is summed up under the table and amounts to PLN 1,472,000,000 as of the end of 2024. I will have a separate slide to provide some more insight on our main cash flow drivers this year. Moving forward to liabilities and equity, slide 17. The most noticeable change here is the increase in our equity driven on the positive side by the strong financial performance of 2024 and, on the other side, by the 2023 dividend paid out at the end of June 2024. The board has not yet made the decision on our recommendation regarding allocation of 2024 profits.

We will inform you immediately after its adoption. Incidentally, an important decision in respect of future dividends was made in January this year. We adopted our first-ever dividend policy. Starting from the financial year 2025, the management board intends to recommend a dividend of at least 25% to the company's net profit for each financial year. To ensure this does not impact our development projects, payouts may be delayed up to five years. Any difference between the 25% and the actual dividend will be reported in our financial reports, providing investors with clear expectations. Undistributed funds may also be used for share buybacks. The policy aims to enhance transparency for shareholders and set clear goals for the management. Coming back to our balance sheet, among liabilities, our trade liabilities and provisions grew over the last year, but in general, no major changes were noted in this section.

Now, please move on to the next slide, number 18. CD Projekt RED's expenditures on research works, development, and costs of product maintenance presented here quarterly for 2024 and the comparative period. After the premiere of Phantom Liberty, which took place at the end of the third quarter of 2023, we visibly regrouped our dev teams. During the fourth quarter of 2023, following the release, extra effort was dedicated to servicing the fresh expansion and the Cyberpunk 2077: Ultimate Edition released at that time. Starting this year, we've been continuously growing our engagement in both research and development of future projects. The growth over the course of this year is clearly visible. Finally, our main cash flow drivers on slide 19.

The PLN 470 million book net profit, which included over PLN 78 million costs attributed to research works that I have permitted myself to extract on the next part, was supported by PLN 120 million in amortization and depreciation. At the same time, PLN 98 million was expensed to the acquisition of tangible and intangible assets, as discussed on the balance sheet slide. Summing up all the above, thanks to the strong performance of our games, we came up with an estimation of PLN 590 million generated by the ongoing business. At the same time, we continued our engagement into new projects and technologies, both in the already mentioned research phase and development phase, PLN 78 million and PLN 249 million respectively. Last but not least, at the end of June, we shared with our shareholders a nearly PLN 100 million dividend.

All in all, our financial reserves kept in cash, bank deposits, and bonds increased by PLN 163 million over the reporting period, reaching PLN 1.47 billion. To sum up this financial part, I would also like to present where we are in terms of achieving the goals of our share-based incentive programs. The goal for the first financial years of 2023 till 2024 was set at PLN 2 billion of our cumulated net profit. After two full years, we've delivered PLN 951 million, which accounts for 48% of the target. Even though we do not plan to release The Witcher 4 by the end of 2026, we are still driven by this financial goal, and although it's very ambitious, we stand a chance of achieving it within the given timeframe.

Before we move to Q&A, I would also like to invite you to celebrate with us the 10th anniversary of the release of The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt. To mark this occasion, we are launching The Witcher in Concert, a special world tour that will bring to life the open-world RPG's timeless core with a live orchestra performance. I personally can't wait to take part in it. That's all from me for now. We can now move on to the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star 1 on your keypad. To withdraw your question for any reason, you may press Star 2. You will be advised when to ask your question. Our first question is from Nick Dempsey with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Nick Dempsey
Director Media Equity Research, Barclays

Yeah, good evening, guys. I've got three.

First of all, in terms of your partnership with Scopely, that's interesting. Can you first of all say whether you expect an upfront licensing fee for your IP from Scopely in relation to that project, or is it just a question of the project runs through and you get your cut at the end of it? Any sense of timings for that project with Scopely, when it might deliver a game? The second question, you said near the end there that you don't expect The Witcher 4 to be released by the end of 2026. Given that you kind of already know that now, can we have any confidence that it will land in 2027?

The final question, the slight reorganization of your project teams around Sirius and The Witcher Remake and The Witcher 4, does that in any way affect the timings of those three projects in the way you're thinking about them?

Piotr Nielubowicz
CFO, CD Projekt

Okay, I'll start with the first two, which were about the Scopely and the partnership, which we just revealed. Unfortunately, the answer to that is probably not going to be satisfactory. We have no further information to be added on that subject on this call. The time for that is going to come in the future.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

I can take the third question regarding the expected release date for The Witcher 4. We are not going to announce the precise launch date for the game yet.

All we could share for now to give more visibility to investors is that the game will not be launched within the timeframe of the first target for the incentive program, which ends 31st of December 2026. Regarding the fourth question, no, there are no connections or there is nothing that we can imagine Sirius influencing The Witcher 4 dev team. Both projects run independently. Sirius is mostly developed in North America on its own. We believe the changes will bring more efficiency and more alignment to the Sirius team with CD Projekt RED's procedures, systems, and game development, the way we develop games. At the same time, The Witcher 4 is developed fully in Poland, and the two teams are not crossing in any significant way.

Nick Dempsey
Director Media Equity Research, Barclays

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, you may press Star followed by 1 on your keypad. As we have no further audio questions coming in, I would like to turn it back over to the team for any webcast questions.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

Okay, I think the first question we can see here is from Krzysztof Tkocz from Erste. The question is, in your opinion, how big is the chance that GTA 6 will raise the price, the standard price of AAA games? It will be an opinion because we have no intimate knowledge to that. The opinion is that we're going to find out soon what's going to happen. There is likelihood for sure. I mean, it's been indicated on a few calls, but it's pure speculation, to be honest.

Our stance is if the standard price changes for the market, it will work towards our benefit for sure. I mean, that's where we sit.

Piotr Nielubowicz
CFO, CD Projekt

I'll take the second question from Tomasz Rodak, Dom Maklerski BOŚ. In order to deliver your 2022-2026 incentive program target, you still need to generate around PLN 1 billion net profit in 2025-2026, which seems extremely difficult without any new projects. Could you please shed some light on the new projects that may help you to achieve these goals? Yeah, the incentive program targets are for 2023 till 2026, so a small correction in dates. Yes, that's true. We still need to deliver slightly above PLN 1 billion. What I can say today is that our business success is based on the longevity of our products, active franchise flywheel management, and releases of new content.

We expect to be active in all of the mentioned areas within this remaining timeframe. Another question comes from Nicolas Langlet, sorry if I mispronounced it, from BNP Paribas. Now that you have entered full production for The Witcher 4, are you able to size the total development costs you expect for the game? In terms of headcount, since we believe the headcount is at the target size for now, it may obviously somehow fluctuate over the time, but in general, we are where we should be. Yes, in terms of future costs, especially those related to future development stages like localization or QA, that will be getting more intense closer to the end of development, obviously things will change. The general rule we will follow here is that we do not guide on future budgets.

The next question is, can we also come in from Christoph Schultes from Erste? The question is, can we ask for an update on the progress of the animation live-action projects? We have no specifics to be shared. I would only say that these are two separate processes. When it comes to animation, we've seen some teasers end of the last year. Naturally, I would expect more information coming sooner on the animation side rather than the live-action. Other than that, we really have nothing new to share with you about that today. Next question comes from Krzysztof Kocz from Erste. What % of investment expenditures are animation live-action projects and unannounced projects? Most of the investments, expenditures, and development projects come from the major products we are involved in, which is The Witcher 4 and Orion.

As for now, the other projects are much smaller than the main flagship titles we work on.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

Okay, and the next one is coming from Grzegorz Balcerski from Trigon. It's a long question. I'll read it. I have a question about the whole new Witcher trilogy. You have probably already had some experience with the production of the new Witcher. Based on this work and observations of the entire development process so far, also taking into account the use of the new Unreal Engine, do you think that it is possible to release the entire trilogy in a six-year window? At this moment in time, we see nothing that would prove this goal to be impossible. Our experience of working with UE5 is actually pretty good. We're progressing as planned. Any hiccups that we encounter, we're able to straighten out ourselves and sometimes with support with the Epic team.

Nothing changes in terms of our outlook towards the frequency of releases in the Witcher 3 trilogy. Piotr Poniatowski, mBank. Kudos on the results. Could you once again explain what has happened on the tax line in Q4 2024 alone? Why was it that much negative? Thanks to the favorable decisions of the Supreme Administrative Court and an individual interpretation relating to the R&D tax relief, we could recalculate historic disclosures of the R&D tax reliefs in our historic tax declarations for the years of 2020 to 2023. Based on that, we could generate or we came to an increased R&D tax relief available to the company, which influenced our deferred tax asset calculation. This increase of the deferred tax asset calculation generated influence on the total tax calculation, opposite to the PLN 18 million taxes that we paid within the IP Box tax regime.

This extra R&D tax relief that we obtained thanks to the Supreme Administrative Court rulings will allow us to spend less on taxes in future years to utilize the R&D tax reliefs in future years. This R&D tax relief is already available to the company, and some part of it was also used in 2024 tax declarations.

The next one is coming from Nicolas Langelet from BNP Paribas. The question is, can you update us regarding the development, deployment, and use of generative AI tools within your development process? As a concrete example, do you plan to use any type of GenAI tools for Witcher 4 development? I think we mentioned before that last year we set up a team that's investigating the potential use of AI solutions in our future products, including development of our own customized AI models.

We have several research projects underway. However, they are really not necessarily focusing on generative AI. GenAI, to be honest, is quite tricky when it comes to legal IP ownership and so on and many other aspects. When it comes to implementation of any GenAI in the actual games, we really have nothing happening when it comes to Witcher 4 or any projects in the near future. I mean, should the legal status of that change, we may look at it, but there is nothing happening with GenAI specifically. There are various other tools we are looking at or using, but not GenAI-oriented so much.

Piotr Nielubowicz
CFO, CD Projekt

Okay, the next question comes from Alexey Philippov, J.P. Morgan. What is the impact on depreciation in 2025-2026 from the new accounting policy? It is not actually a new accounting policy. The policy is the same.

However, based on the great performance of Cyberpunk and The Witcher 3 in the recent quarters, we decided to reevaluate our amortization schemes, which should be in line with expected products used in the future. Right now, we updated our plans for the future. Hence, we also updated our amortization schemes. As far as what size of effect it may have on our future results, what I can say from the top of my memory is that for 2025, for Cyberpunk and Phantom Liberty together, the quarterly amortization was supposed to be around PLN 16 million. After this reevaluation, it will be down to approximately PLN 13 million. The difference will be PLN 3 million per quarter. It's not a huge one.

In case of The Witcher 3 next-gen version, the effect will be even much, much smaller as the base amount for depreciation that is still remaining is a level of magnitude lower than what we had for Cyberpunk and Phantom Liberty still to be amortized. Another question comes from Alexey Philippov, JP Morgan. Why are research works' costs edged down in Q4 compared to previous quarters in 2024? PLN 10 million in Q4 2024 versus PLN 20 million per quarter in Q1, Q3, 2024. I'm not sure if I understand the question right now, but I believe I tried to give you an answer in my commentary. Basically, we started capitalizing expenditures on Orion starting from September. That is why starting Q4, the expenditures on development projects grew. At the same time, the early research work costs presented in general and administrative expenses decreased.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

Okay, the next one is again from Nicolas Langelet from BNP Paribas. The question is, do you plan any meaningful licensing deals in 2025, like the one you signed in 2024 with Sony for The Witcher 3? As I understand, it is about including The Witcher 3 in the PlayStation Plus subscription. We stand on a position that subscription can work well for the back catalog titles. It always requires careful consideration at our end. We try to make, in these cases, the best possible decision business-wise, looking also at the timing, what makes sense for the franchise at a given moment. The long story short, we may consider that. That is not a confirmation at my end that we are doing something like that this year specifically. I am just trying to explain how we look at these things.

One thing I can definitely state is we're not fans of including titles in subscription services of any kind for the launch. However, for a back catalog, again, if it makes sense business-wise, time-wise, from the franchise perspective, we can consider that. There is no confirmation for 2025, 2026, or any other year coming from me here right now.

Piotr Nielubowicz
CFO, CD Projekt

Next question comes from Alexey Philippov, J.P. Morgan. Do you have any indication where your effective tax rate might settle in 2025-2026? Did I understand correctly that you have more deferred tax liabilities to recognize in 2025-2026? Book-wise, we've already recognized the deferred tax assets, which we will be consuming in the future. Hence, our cash flows related to income tax will be somehow limited. At the same time, book-wise, we will be accounting the taxes the regular way.

I know it's not a very precise guidance, but since the tax calculations are pretty complex, we use two tax regimes, both IP Box regime with 5% taxation and the standard one of 19%. What I can say for now is that our standard taxation, in case nothing extraordinary happens, should land in between 5% and 19% of the gross profit.

Michał Nowakowski
Joint CEO, CD Projekt

The next question is from Grzegorz Balcerski from Trigon. The question is, I assume you participated in recent GDC. In recent years, main topics were layoffs in AI, in gaming. What issues dominated GDC this year? That's an interesting question. I did participate in GDC. I was there last week together with lots of members of our team. While you are correct that layoffs and AI were the subjects of the past years, I did not really find a very, very dominating subject this year.

I think there was maybe a lot of people talking about everything at the same time. Still, there were some people talking about layoffs. There was a lot of conversations about whether the industry is rebounding. The AI chatter has gone a little bit more quiet compared to the previous years, which does not mean that AI is not a subject for the industry, on the contrary. I think it is, and I think everybody else does as well. It is just the novelty of it has worn down a little bit. It is not such a buzz term as was, for example, last year. I think there is a lot of discourse about whether the industry is growing overall. I have noticed myself that the perception of that depends on where you are positioned. Basically, depending on which corner of the industry you are occupying, some people believe it is.

Some people believe it's not so much. These are very subjective positions, to be honest. There was no specific dominant theme I could really notice this year specifically. All right. As we have no further questions, as it seems, I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to contact our wonderful investor relations team. I hope you have a pleasant evening and goodbye till the next time. Thank you so much.

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