Good afternoon. Very warm welcome at the presentation of the financial results of Bank Pekao S.A. after the first six months of 2025. We have Cezary Stypułkowski, CEO, Vice President responsible for finances, Dagmara Wojnar, VP for retail and private banking, Błażej Szczecki, and our Chief Economist, Ernest Pytlarczyk. Now, I would like to give the floor to the CEO, Cezary Stypułkowski.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Our quarterly and semiannual results were good. The key elements we would like to highlight are the following. We have managed to maintain the growth trajectory for net profit. That was quite significant. Probably the most significant thing that we had all been waiting for, and our colleague Pytlarczyk had announced this trend for quite a while, namely the revival of the credit action.
It has been taking place for a while now, and it is materialized in the form of the growth of our portfolio. In the second half of this first half of the year, the second quarter, we saw greater dynamics here. That announces something that I called a boom in our previous meeting. It seems, as my colleague, Chief Economist, confirms, I should stick to this word, we are going to continue to experience this boom. Even in some elements of our credit portfolio, market share might budge a little bit. In all areas, practically, we saw growth. Capital position relatively strong, robust enough to prove solid in stress tests. You know that the strength of the bank is underpinned by capital strength, and we were assessed as a very resilient bank.
Other things that I would like to signal, maybe I will not read out the figures from the slide. You are much better at that than myself. Anyway, one of the things that I would like to stress, maybe foreshadowing what Dagmara will say in a moment, as you might recall, in our strategic assumptions, we assumed that we would have a CI ratio at around 35%. What we have built as a reference point in terms of cost-to-income ratio, we are flexible and modern. If we manage the cost structure skillfully, where the costs were supposed to be the drivers of organic growth, we are ready to loosen this corset of rigid cost control. While we have fixed cost elements, and it's easy to guess which ones I have in mind, we will try to keep in line with our assumptions.
However, all in all, it does not change our target of staying around the 35% ratio, but with a certain portion of flexibility. Risk costs stay below our target. Historically, we had a relatively low level of risk costs. Now the guidance is higher than what we achieved. NPL, a significant parameter, stays within a reasonable range. As I said, the characteristic of the second quarter, in particular, was the growing volumes of financing for various client segments. The weakest impact was seen in large corporations, but that is a result of a significant number of prepayments, also of revolving loans. There was a redistribution of resilience funds to our clients. Periodically, this parameter was slightly weaker, but we hope it's going to rebound. Basically, you can see that all segments contributed quite decently to the overall results.
Even the trusteeship services, where we have a significant share, show a stable position of the bank. Our ranking over a period of more than a decade now is at the top of custodian banks in Poland. I would like to spell out very clearly that it continues to be a very good result. Strategy. Just a few months ago, we had a presentation of this strategy in this very room. The three elements that continue to organize us are the growth, the need to be reinforced in our conviction that the bank is capable of organic growth. That was a weakness of the bank in the past. Then the question of availability of channels with which we communicate with our clients, and efficiency in terms of better IT infrastructure and improvements in operations of processes and hardware.
Here, the bank has quite a lot to do still if we compare ourselves to the best market players in this market. Nevertheless, in each of those areas, we see relative growth. It will be premature to make more lofty sounding, more bombastic announcements. We stay on the trajectory of the assumptions that were formulated in April. I will not talk about retail banking. Błażej is at this meeting on purpose, and he will talk you through this topic because, in general, retail banking is an underinvested part of our operations. The Italians did not put in any money there. At the end of the 1990s, Bank Pekao S.A. was at the top of retail banks. Now it is lagging behind its competitors. The bank is now looking for its niche in this regard.
We talked about this during our strategy presentation, and today you will hear from Błażej a bit more details. With regard to the corporate market, it is worth stressing two things. Accessibility and availability through digital channels for SMEs, that is the key source of success. SME customers in the processes that were half on paper and half branch-based, we need to make quite an effort yet. Maybe these are peripheral things, but still, the improvements that we have already introduced are helpful to the clients. We have this dispersed branch structure. A lot of customers in smaller localities usually use cash.
It is really important to extend our package, let's say, in the way we communicate with customers, the way we maintain their cash operations. For example, we need to think about more machines where people can deposit money and so on. There are many things that come into play here in terms of our local or county-level customers and branches. Over to Błażej.
Thank you so much. As the CEO, the President said, we are well on our way in terms of our strategy. In many areas of our strategic deployment, we have good progress. Let's start with demographics. Demographics are a huge challenge for the entire sector, especially that our client base has actually moved over to the over 50 bracket, over 50 years of age. We need to acquire younger customers as well. We're doing a lot to achieve that, product-wise, sort of commercial-wise.
Getting 70,000 customers, 80,000 customers that we acquired in the first half of this year puts us squarely on the trajectory, one quarter of a million, at the end of 2027. It is important that every, I mean, one in three customers is a young one, let's say, belongs to a younger demographic. We've been focusing on growing in the most profitable areas, like, for example, consumer finance. That's a big area for us, and we've devoted a lot of attention to it. We looked at it quite holistically. We left no stone unturned. We analyzed processes and tools and instruments and risk and the way we communicate with customers. We looked at our efficiency as well. We've started to see some results, some first outcomes, and hopefully, we will move on in this direction.
Our portfolio has been growing 11% year-on-year, which allowed us to increase our market share slightly. We have an appetite for more. We're optimistic and quite hopeful for the second half of this year. We had similar outcomes in terms of microfinance. We're also growing, increasing our market share. We can see that we could grow profitably here. Our portfolio has grown 12%. Our market share has grown as well. When it comes to Bancassurance and synergies with the PZU Group or linked to the PZU Group, actually, all product groups have contributed here. We have all kinds of products that have been growing, products that are linked, somehow interconnected, but also ones that are not interconnected. We want to get 5% growth in this strategy.
When it comes to gross premium written, we've achieved a record-breaking result, and we feel a strong commitment to get to PLN 1 billion. I mean, that's within our strategy, and we want to deliver on it. When it comes to our clients and how we relate to them and our connection to them, this half a year, we focus on aspiring customers, those who are proactive, who execute quite a lot of transactions. We prepared a special sort of holiday travel package for them. It's a really special offer that's looking to build our new identity, sort of focused around travel and what people need when they travel. We want our customers to sort of associate us and link us with whatever they need when they travel. We're out there.
We have our stands at airports, and we really want our clients to feel that we're with them whenever they travel, travel physically and also in their journey through life. What's important for us here is to really work long-term with them and sort of giving them real benefits, sort of to get them to feel that what they're receiving from us is valuable. We have payment rings that we offer to them, and we guarantee low exchange rates, for example. Whenever they go on holiday, especially abroad, we want to be with them when they plan their journey, when they plan their budget, and of course, when they execute their transactions while on holiday, especially abroad. We have all kinds of packages, like online packages as well. We also have wanted and have been striving towards personalization. You can personalize the app.
We can adjust our messaging to what customers need on a personal level. Actually, personalization led to an increase of PACs and our loans. Of course, with payment rings, customers want to personalize. They want to select the color. They want to select the design that expresses them and leads to more loyalty, and that will lead to more transactions, of course, executed. We are also betting very heavily on safety and security. The rings are integrated with a PeoPay app so that the customer knows that it's easy and safe, and even the payment ring can be an entry to banking with us. Also, as I mentioned, we support our customers when they travel. We are part of Miles & More as the only bank in Poland. Actually, credit cards and Miles & More, it's a big part of our identity.
That's the only loyalty program with an airline in Poland, and we're there. Next year, we are looking at 100,000 Miles & More cards. I mean, that's the level that we want to achieve because we want to be with our clients, not only when they're banking and doing transactions, but also, as I said, as they travel. When it comes to banking, definitely, we pay a lot of attention to digitalization, especially that we were lagging behind, and now we're catching up. 9% growth in the number of active users. We're now, after a period where we lagged behind, actually getting to being number two in terms of mobile banking with us. Very much, we don't only want to acquire these customers. We really want them to use, to actively use our apps.
We have a special indicator that's part of our strategy, and it's like a percentage or an indicator of digital sales, and it's increasing. For example, in terms of loans, cash loans, digital sales have grown 6 percentage points year-on-year, but it's just one part. We're working on so much more. We want to sort of move away from branches, and we want to make PeoPay the first sort of channel, channel number one. Of course, contact center will be an important channel, and branches will become number three. They will be there, but they will decrease in importance. When it comes to our contact center, in the second quarter, we've incorporated our contact center. Actually, employees of the contact center became our employees. It's a big milestone. The number of FTEs hasn't changed much, but the number of employees has increased.
Over 300 employees came to us officially to become our employees. We can digitize more, and we can offer more services, voice services, digital services. These services can be all about insurance, can be about investing. It helps us in creating the best contact center in the world. It's one of our goals. Actually, we are well on the way to achieving that. The second quarter was a big part of that. Thank you so much.
Right, retail. This is important. It used to be lagging behind because the corporate division, we're a leader here, clearly. We have huge penetration. We're highly sophisticated in terms of our product range. The number of transactions, that's the number of transactions executed or last quarter. Let me point two numbers to you. Some of these numbers are what you'd expect, but we also participated in funding some investment loans.
For example, Equinor and Brookfield, which are offshore wind farms. That's a huge project, second largest project right now on the Baltic Sea. We are quite exposed, also committed very much, and helping fund these projects. Secondly, I wanted to tell you about how we are more and more active in dealing with local government because Pekao, i mean, we are a sort of county bank. That's a little bit of our history. We're everywhere in those smaller localities, county level. We do have to be more present working with local governments, and we have to be closer to the local government structure. Our infrastructure that's already there, it has to be put to better use. I mean, Warsaw, for example, it's a metropolis, but on the other hand, it's a county, right? Anyway, bigger cities are counties as well.
We have to be more present out there, for example, supporting town halls and winning tenders. Out of twelve large metropolitan areas, we're very present in six. We are quite well positioned.
With that, I can give over to Ernest.
2025 is going to be the year with GDP growing by about 4%, and we think that this forecast still holds water. The second half of the year is going to be better. Already, 3.2% was the economic growth in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, there will be more and more investments. That translates into the overall development of the Polish economy. There will be more public investments first, followed by private ones. The cost of credit for enterprises has been too high so far. This is, however, changing slowly, and we can already see that in the volumes. We are already bullish in credit volumes, and the end of this year should see almost two-digit numbers. Next year, even better. The downfall is shown in the graph in the middle of this slide. That is consumption.
Last year was rather poor in this regard. Downfalls with consumption doesn't sound very good. Let's use another word. A surprise. A surprise. Unanticipated growth in consumption. Consumer moods with regard to buying durable goods seem to be growing. If customers have a greater disposable income, they are able to drive consumption. Last year, we experienced cost inflation related to the energy crisis and so on. Now, this is receding. That will have a number of implications for various industries, but also for consumers at large. For example, the volume of consumer credits will grow as a result. You can see that something is going to budge in mortgage loans. The level of interest rates plays an important role here. Almost PLN 70 billion is the backlog here. We will see this spilling over the next year.
There is going to be a significant revival in the volumes of mortgage loans. Mortgage loans, in turn, will strongly push the development of the credit market. That will significantly grow the asset portfolio at banks' interest rates. Indeed, economists use the term Goldilocks economy. You know probably what that is. That is about the economy that is neither overheated nor too chilly, with inflation on the right track, lower energy prices, also the impact of cheap products from China. In some product groups, you can see deflation because prices go down year-on-year. That is an environment good for consumers. There is an opportunity for further decreases of interest rates. We expect the National Bank of Poland to reduce interest rates twice by 25 points this year. Probably the same will go for interest rates in the U.S.
That is likely not the model environment for interest rates that we might be familiar with from the past, but that is going to be good development for stability of the economy in general. Thank you.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Now, a few words about our results. If I were to give a title to this slide, I would probably call it, "We are accelerating and we are growing in credit volumes." If we compare the first and the second quarters, now we see a 6% growth of credits in general, loans in general. In the first quarter, that was 4%. We want to grow in cash loans and enterprises and SMEs. Mid and SME, 13% up. We are happy that we have seen a growth in the segment of large corporations. That was 10% year-on-year.
As regards growth in cash loans, you probably remember that one of the strategic pillars was availability, accessibility. This growth happened mainly in remote channels. 80% of sales go through remote access channels. This is good news to us. As for mid-corporate and SME segments, here, the growth is supported by a strong acquisition of new clients. In the second quarter, we had more than 1,000 customers more here. As for other parameters, investment funds, 29% up year-on-year with the record net sales, PLN 10 billion. To break down the PLN 10 billion, over PLN 7 billion out of that are treasury bonds and three funds. We are also opening current accounts. The balance of current accounts in our total deposit share, that was 71.8. Now it is 77.8.
If I were to sum up the deposit and liquidity part of our results, we can say that our liquidity ratios are safe, much above the minimum rates. LCR well over 200. Business growth is supported by the growth in our results on interest rates, on interest income. This stems from a greater volume of loans, but also from a different structure. We have a greater share of cash loans and mid-corporate and SME loans. The third element that contributes to this positive margin, 8 basis points better than it used to be, is the very good liquidity situation, which translates into the possibility to efficiently manage the deposits. Interest on interest-bearing assets dropped. Liabilities by 11. That contributed in a positive way to the overall result. Although deposits grew by 8%, costs stayed at the level of last year, which was the effect of our efficient pricing policy.
This slide is something that we presented when showing you the results of the previous quarter. It shows our sensitivity to interest rates. The natural sensitivity is 20 basis points-25 basis points down when interest rates go down by 10 basis points. Of course, there is a series of factors that we use in order to mitigate the drops. On the one hand, we have hedging strategy using derivatives. We have derivative instruments that we, derivative mortgage loans that we also sell as part of our hedging effects. The last element is the securities portfolio.
Thank you. 25% of our bonds portfolio has been overestimated by the end of the quarter. Out of the 25%, 74% has been overestimated. We will see some positive results from that in the coming months, slowly but surely. There's one more component that I've already mentioned, namely adjusting interest rates on our deposits, especially term deposits. What's been making us happy for two quarters is that fees and commissions have increased, and we have better results here. It's close to 10% now. There are three components that should be mentioned and that contribute to this result very strongly. The first component is commissions from the capital market. We have a 41% higher value of assets under management. Both valuation and sales are positive. We also have good margin on foreign currency transactions, and the higher results come mostly from volume.
Thirdly, fees and commissions coming from loans, which come from an increase in lending. Now a little bit about costs. Cost-to-income at the level of 35.7%. When we're looking at the Banking Guarantee Fund data, we're going to be somewhere at 34%. We're looking at what was in the strategy. Just like Cezary or President said, we are a bank. That's part of our strategy. We need to invest, of course, and we will continue investing. As you will see, look at our costs. Our costs have been growing year-on-year by 5%. If you break it down to components, personal costs, 1%. Mind you, last year, we had this one-off event. There was a special bonus. If we take a look at that, it's going to be 4.6%. The cost of DBA, it's 11.4%. Cost of risk is below our strategy and what our strategy dictates.
They've been falling. year-on-year, they are lower. First of all, cost of risk is due to a drop in Q2 compared to what was happening in 2024. We have recalibrated our parameters of our provisions, group provisions in the retail portfolio. When you look at Q2 and corporates, we have a higher result, a higher cost of risk because we've created a provision for one sort of isolated case, for one specific corporate customer. All in all, when you look at our portfolio and cost of risk, it's been stable, behaving well. We don't see any worrying or negative trends or tendencies that could materially affect the coming quarters. Let me just remind you that in our strategy, we have 65 basis points- 75 basis points in terms of cost of risk. Now, let's take a look at the quality of our assets and NPL below 5%.
We've said time and time again that in order for dividends to be paid, if we want to look at dividend at the level of 75%, we want NPL to be below 5%. It is so. Let me maybe say one more thing, but it's hardly surprising. It's not surprising for us, not for the sector, because just like the sector, we too sell all kinds of irregular liabilities or receivables. We actually sold it. It's around PLN 180 million, and it's around PLN 30 million that impacts our overall results. When it comes to our capital position, it's quite strong. We have surplus across all categories, I would say, as you can see on this slide. The surplus and being strong actually allow us to hit the dividend-related targets. We also are in line with the buffer. Let's talk about MREL. Actually, we are very much compliant.
We have 3.6% over the buffer. When we look at MREL to TREA, we are able to hit the 100 bps that we need, and we're increasing or planning to increase lending. There's 100 basis points awaiting, let's say, in September 2026. Hopefully, we have like one or two issuances this year and next year. Let's talk about recurring net profit, 13% year-on-year, 13% up, PLN 4.1 billion. We had quite significant one-off events or regulatory burdens that actually lower our result to PLN 3.2 billion. We're talking about CHF provisions, consumer protection, and of course, the banking tax, the banking guarantee fund, the financial supervisory authority requirements. When you look at all these things, you get PLN 1.2 billion, which is around 35% of our net result. To sum up, we are accelerating in terms of volumes, 6% versus 4% growth.
Now we have lending revival with 6%. We're growing in key segments. We have yet another quarter of good results in terms of commissions behind us. Cost-to-income is at the level of 34%. With annualized banking guarantee fund, our risk profile is safe, and ROE over 20%. Overall, solid results for Q2 and solid sort of deployment of our strategy.
Thank you very much. Now, let's move on to Q&A. For all those of you who are with us remotely, you can ask your questions using venicki@pko.pl. You can email me as well. We would also like to thank some of you for coming to us offline and appearing in this room physically. Let's start with these questions from people who are with us in the room.
Kamil Soracki from Santander Bank. I have three questions, so let me ask all three of them at once.
I was very interested in what you were saying about costs, and actually, I asked it during your previous conference. Italians, they're not here. They haven't been here for eight years, right? Can you quantify at this time what kind of investment you need to sort of catch up with the sector? Some of you were using some words like, you know, lagging behind, stuff like that. How to eliminate that? Secondly, we're all about Ukraine, right? Trump is meeting Putin and so on. It's very big. Pekao S.A. , do we expect that when the war ends, it's going to be a huge impact on your business, you know, on customer behavior, on provisions, or even if the war ends or when it ends, you don't expect any huge impact? Also, the President, the CEO, has been known to be very vocal on anything that's happening on the sector.
What about this tax that may become a burden or any taxes or any other things that can encumber the sector? What do you think about that?
Technically speaking, your first question is really key. As we have been, as we presented our strategy, I've mentioned it. The Italians haven't been with us for eight years, true. When I go back to, you know, back in the day when Pekao S.A. was being privatized, it was like somewhere in the 1990s, in the 1980s. Definitely, Bank Handlowy was at that point very much interested in a merger with Pekao S.A.. At that point, Bank Handlowy was a primary retail bank. They had a wonderful customer base, and they had great products. Actually, Pekao S.A. was the first one to introduce foreign currency accounts and credit cards and so on. Anyway, back then, we were strong as well.
Over the last 25 years, we've had two instances of sort of growth on the retail market and things that have redefined everything. The first thing was when the first online bank came into existence in the early 2000s.
mBank, for example, took advantage of that. The other company that took advantage of that was T-Mobile. These were those two instances of retail development. That was when the Italians were in this bank. Those two opportunities were completely ignored. On top of that, the bank simply grew old. The average age of Pekao client is higher than the average age of an average pole. This is not a trivial thing. Coming back to your question, my guardedness when talking about cost-to-income ratio results from two factors. On the one hand, I'm not able to completely measure the things that I needed to catch the peloton. It's no secret that on the 1st of September, we will have a new Management Board member who will, to a large extent, take care of that area.
Hopefully, we need to do some leapfrogging in order to improve our current status. Of course, when we talk about cost-to-income ratio, we are not talking only about investments that will subsequently be depreciated. Because investments are moving forward, we are even ahead of our competitors. Some of these investments have been completed. If you want to fold ahead and if you have a ready agenda to do some leapfrogging, you need to increase your CapEx, not only with regard to investments as such. That's something we have to take into consideration. When you look at those numbers, probably the branch structure will cost us a little less because we have already managed to streamline it a little. We are optimizing those branches now. For example, such branches that occupy two floors and the area of 2,000 sq m. This is something that the Italians had arranged.
This cannot be changed overnight, but over a reasonable period, it can be completed and streamlined. On the other hand, if you have a certain acceleration, especially in IT developments, then you always face the dilemma whether you shouldn't hire more people on the technology front and on the servicing front. We have to admit that we do not really have a ready agenda for each single aspect of our functioning. We do hope that within the next weeks or months, that will be specified. We are not going to increase costs without limits. The second part of your question regarding the prospects of developments in Ukraine, my opinion here regarding the conflict in Ukraine, its nature and origins has been very guarded. Undoubtedly, the closure of this conflict will be the source of optimism, both on the part of investors with regard to Poland and internally inside Poland.
We have the tendency to ignore this conflict a little bit, but it is a real geopolitical conflict that was predictable. The best thing that can happen now is to break the ongoing vicious circle by some form of cooperation, mediation, closing the conflict anyway. For the position of Poland and the optimism that will accompany our clients and investors, yes, that will have the immediate impact here. The third point of your question, tax, aha. Maybe some of you recall the article that I wrote some time ago about the limits of burdens being exceeded. I uphold this opinion. In today's issue of The Economist, there is an article about credit cards and bonus systems in Europe and in the U.S. There is a very interesting observation. Who knows the interchange on cards in the U.S.? 2%. In the U.K., 0.3%. In Europe, even lower. In Poland, yet lower.
Even if there are some issues, the banking sector in Poland is very efficient. It continues to be cheap for its clients. Its profitability, transitional as a result of high interest rates, is relatively better. This is the last two years. Along the way, we had a completely unpredictable series of events, like this grace period in the repayment of the loan. A discussion within the sector and with the involvement of the general public should take place. Everybody knows the effects of such taxation. I agree that under the existing circumstances, it's extremely hard to imagine a situation where anybody gives up the idea of such tax, especially, I mean, budgetary circumstances. One option would be a change in the tax rate on personal income tax, corporate income tax. I think that would rationalize this corporate income tax rate change.
It would optimize a lot of behaviors in the banking sector. The opinions that are voiced now, to a large extent, result from a lack of understanding of the nature of this business, its cycles, and as a consequence, the security of deposits. There are a lot of implications. I would be most afraid of a situation where some sort of incidental tax is introduced because somebody had an idea to introduce this kind of tax, and then it becomes anchored in the market for many years to come. Ignoring the nature of the market leads to dramatic events in the economy. I saw this, and I wouldn't like to live through that again.
Are there any questions from the room? If not, let's move on to the questions asked online, first regarding the results, and then for dessert, our transaction.
Why this double growth of loans for non-banking financial institutions over $3 billion?
To answer this question, we bought securities simply. These are securities of the European Investment Bank, tax-free, let's say. We also issued our MREL in euro. We bought securities of the European Investment Bank. There's a number of questions on sanctions on the free loan, and there's a question about how it impacted your results. Right. Just like my colleague said, we do have a disclosure in our statement, but let me give you some numbers. We don't have all. I mean, as of 30th of June , we have over 1,000 cases. The value is less than $30 million. By the end of June, 80 of these have been finalized, and nearly 70 are verdicts, court verdicts that are final and favorable for us, in our favor.
Actually, the scale of this phenomenon and the court practice is mostly in our favor. There's another question about volumes. Indeed, volumes have been up, especially in the corporate segment. What's the reason, and is it sustainable? What are perspectives for the second half of the year? Let me give you some context. There is, let's say, revival in investments, public investments, and also lower costs of funding, lower costs of loans simply make loans more attractive, more appealing. It will continue to happen. We've had a number of research projects where we looked into this. We looked at the scale of transformation-related projects in the Polish economy and how everyone is investing. By 2030, $1 billion is supposed to have been invested. It could be even out of around 25% of investments' contribution to our GDP.
Of course, we can move one quarter, one or two quarters, one way or another, but those dynamics could be really, really even really impressive. In 2024, 2025, there was a squeeze in the construction sector, but in 2027, it will continue. Also, the energy sector will be somehow affected. Their machine parks will have to be invested in, right? Those volumes are important. This is investing in action. The second quarter was very, very active. The pipeline of the third quarter is also looking very, very appealing. We are just acting like Ernest described. These are our priorities, and we are quite optimistic in terms of volumes. They will grow.
Just like the NBP is saying, the National Bank of Poland is saying, the competition is going to be more and more fierce, and the banking sector will have to sort of take into account that interest rates will continue to fall. If I remember correctly, when I look at all kinds of forecasts for Poland, I think we have the toughest competitive situation since 2010. It's hugely competitive. All these phenomena indicate that there is a revival after some kind of a slower period for the last two to three years, but we remain optimistic. Also, we've assumed in our strategy that we want to take advantage of our expertise and our experience in the corporate sector. We expect it, what's been happening, and we're acting consistently. Just like I said before, of course, there are some skeptical voices in terms of retail banking.
When you look at the corporate sector, we have the most expertise out there in the market. When costs of credits and all those requirements are loosened a little bit, we can move towards mid-caps or mid-size companies. We are, of course, aware that we need to invest more because we sometimes cannot serve some of the most mass clients, corporate clients, unless we invest in our infrastructure. We can do that, and we will move there towards this space. Let me just say this, even though it sounds lofty, really, our level of expertise, what we represent in terms of syndication, in terms of what we can issue, in terms of custody-related services, our expertise in corporate banking is absolutely top-notch. We have super experienced experts, people who know what they're doing.
As I talk to some of our clients, I would say this aspect is being noticed, that we have really dedicated top-quality resources geared towards corporate banking. There is a number of questions emerging with PZU and the fact that the government has been restructured. There's a new minister for state assets. What about this transaction? Will it be based on a six-month exchange rate or UAP3? If you could give us more of a general update with the transaction. The nature of the transaction, I don't think I need to explain this in this environment. When we're looking at the dynamics of the transaction, it's moving forward. It's happening. Previously, some of the journalists asked me whether I talked to the Minister for Assets, and I did talk to this person. He knows about the transaction. He knows the details.
I think today, they announced some regulatory changes and modifications that would be conducive to this transaction, or at least if such changes happened, it would be easier for the transaction. I think that now our Center for Legislation has already published some of these regulatory changes, which, again, goes to show that the governments, that the authorities are very much involved and active. I don't see too many threats, honestly. I mean, the transaction, the deal itself is very complex. Especially its first stage is plenty complex. There's a number of steps that need to be undertaken, you know, to stick to the structure. PZU has some steps to perform. We have a steering committee. We have steering committee meetings. The last meeting happened quite recently. I would say most of the events will happen come fall this year.
When I'm looking at the timeline, I would say a lot of things should be happening till the end of the first quarter next year, or should be happening by the end of the first quarter next year. When it comes to all the benefits and when it comes to what this transaction will bring, if you want to know, of course, fire away if you want to know any details.
Are there any questions from the room? There is something from the room.
Andrzej Powierza, Citi Handlowy, Brokerage. I have two macro questions, maybe thought-provoking questions. Mr. Ernest talked about two-digit growth in terms of loans, but I'm looking at your forecasts. Actually, corporate or loans, I can't see anything about two-digit growth forecasts. Is there anything more than you publish in your official forecasts?
I mean, our bank, nothing is ever in line, or not everything is in line. I mean, Ernest and myself, we've always been in dialogue. I mean, for 15 years, we're not always of the same mind. For example, we differ. Ernest actually published a book on the euro. There are some differences, let's say, between us. We have been engaging in a creative dialogue for the best part of 15 years. Actually, I mostly agree with Ernest. Sometimes we've even been, we even placed bets on how things would unfold. I agree that certain things are moving towards two-digit growth. That's the trajectory. The timing, that remains to be seen after Q2. After what I've been hearing in July, I would be leaning towards agreeing more with Ernest. I would say, whenever you don't know, be conservative.
When I learned English, that was one of the first sentences that I learned. Predicting things, especially in the future, is very difficult. We don't want to start thinking about the second half of the year just sticking to our scenario. We have a scenario, but there is a potential upside there. After one quarter plus one month, as someone wearing a little bit of a different hat than Ernest is wearing, I'm leaning towards, okay, let's leave, let's stay with those numbers, let's stay with those volumes, let's be part of the trend, and let's sort of chase everyone, but also move forward, especially. Are these numbers leading us to sustainable two-digit growth? I wouldn't like to pronounce on this. Not now.
The second question, going beyond 2026, on the forecast slide, the interest rates at the end of 2027 after the next parliamentary elections in Poland, what level do you expect?
That's a hard question. A very difficult one. Sometimes when things happen, you see changes in the market. Anticipation doesn't change anything. Europe stayed at 3%, so 3.5% for Poland seems a reasonable assumption. I would like to add that in the strategic forecasts, we assumed 3.5%, just as Ernest said, for 2027. I agree with Ernest that the premium on PLN is of the order of 1.5%. Should it turn out that the Polish economy develops materially faster, it might continue. If there is a slowdown, that probably will decrease a little bit.
Martin, I have a few questions. One to Ernest. You talked a lot about investments. What is your assessment of the quality of these investments? Because you can evaluate the loan portfolio, saying that some part of this portfolio is better. I believe that the similar observation goes for investments.
Probably in energy, investing in energy is different from investing in factories, plants. That increases our overall competitiveness. The second question is to the President. What can you expect in the context of changing the shareholder? Do you see any risks for your bank as a result of a change of the main shareholder in Santander, your chief competitor? A question regarding the PZU transaction. Do you think there are any challenges that might prevent the transaction from completing? Are there any risks that would make it very difficult to complete the transaction? The last question, traditional one to both gentlemen. What is your assessment of the forecasts for the following periods if you compare your forecasts from the previous conference after the first quarter?
Let me start with the investments and energy in particular. Some two months ago, we released a paper on energy.
Chapter two says very specifically which transactions make economic sense, which do not. We have significant doubts as to wind energy or major new investments in wind energy, with a reservation that anything that carries state guarantees of the state collecting, receiving the energy. The fixed price, that is also in line with Grzegorz Onichimowski i's interview. He changed his opinion not a long time ago and now is very skeptical regarding wind energy because a change in prices would result in a major spike in prices for end users. We are very conservative here. Gas and storage is okay, plus cogeneration. Cogeneration and generation at a local level. Please have a look at this research paper. We had taken a long time to present it, to develop it. There are some very relevant conclusions there. This is how we approach the topic in the bank.
We pick up from the renewable energy sources, the ones which make economic sense or which carry guarantees of the state treasury.
There was a question about forecasts. Have our forecasts changed compared to what we presented after the first quarter? We probably increased the forecasts for retail. We have slightly better developments here. For the corporate segment, we uphold our previous forecasts. For retail, we bring the volumes up. If we update our forecasts, you can find those changes in our social media where we update our information. The beginning of the year is slightly weaker, but inflation also is lower, 1 percentage point lower. We have freezing of energy prices. In general, there is disinflation on goods imported from China. One was a common question to both of us. If you ask me whether I'm happy with what Ernest is forecasting, yes, I am.
The blockages of transactions is the next point. If there is something attractive, then it's obvious. I do not see in the transaction any risks, any elements that would pose any risk to the economic rational to the conclusion of the transaction. Of course, there are some risks of institutional nature, some psychological aspects. We get such questions too, and we try to answer them as best we can. The element that is also being discussed in the public domain is the topic of legislative changes. Obviously, I'm not able to predict the developments of legislative processes. In the Ministry of State Assets, all steps that were agreed in the past are now being implemented. From this perspective, it seems there are no risks. The parliamentary process is extremely complex. If there are questions, we are normally prepared to give reasonable answers, and we provide them.
There is the possibility of a veto. We have a new president. If there are any questions, we will try to explain things. This is not the only scenario. That is the scenario which, to the largest extent, addressed three elements: time, money, and state authority here. If, for whatever reason, the legislative process differs from what we expected, we will look for new solutions that were considered in the past but were finally decided to be less attractive from a time perspective or cost perspective, even if some of them were promising to be more efficient than the course of action that we finally opted for.
One more macro-related question. What about the impact of the German infrastructure investment program? What's the impact on Poland? There's another online participant who's asking about how trade wars and tariff wars impact the Polish economy.
All right, what's happening in Germany? I mean, they have a whole fiscal package, not just infrastructure investments, but also military investments from 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP. I would say even more because we're quite well sort of connected with Germany, and we will continue to be their production hub. We have been an automotive production hub. We will continue to be a defense production hub. These are similar competencies, similar facilities as well. Germany, after the war, they moved from defense to automotive, and they can move back, right, from automotive to defense if need be. Actually, we published our research results today about that, about tariffs.
Hypothetically, our sensitivity used to be 25% to hypothetic tariffs. You can read our research. This is not a huge impact, honestly. I would say there is a direct impact, like you know engines and things like that that we export into the States. We also export as part of the European Union. There is an impact on us because there's an impact on the European Union and cheap competition from China, right? It's an impact. China will have to redirect their exports, so they will redirect to Europe. It's the second wave of the Chinese shock, as we call it, you know, direct competition of cheap goods from China. Actually, I went to, I read Reuters, and I read on their website that Chinese exports in the first half of the year are 7% more than it used to be from the previous year.
Some of it is, you know, sort of stockpiling and getting sort of prepared before tariffs hit. Ernest actually mentioned a lot of the impact, talked about a lot of the impact. I agree that the impact for the Polish economy directly, I don't think it's going to be that big, but there are those three channels. Those channels will somehow impact us, but mostly through the fact that we are part of the European Union rather than, you know, a direct impact. Right. Thank you very much for being with us. Of course, do participate in our meetings. We'll be holding meetings in London, New York, Warsaw. We invite all investors to stay in touch with our board members. Have a good day and see you around. Thank you.