Good day, welcome to the Federal Realty Investment first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Leah Brady. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Federal first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call are Don Wood, Dan G, Jeff Berkes , Wendy Seher , Jan Sweetnam , and Melissa Solis. They will be available to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks.
A reminder that certain matters discussed on this call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any annualized or projected information, as well as statements referring to expected or anticipated events or results, including guidance.
Although Federal Realty believes these expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Federal Realty's future operations and its actual performance may differ materially from the information in our forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that these expectations can be attained.
The earnings release and supplemental reporting package that we issued this afternoon, our annual report filed on Form 10-K, and our other financial disclosure documents provide a more in-depth discussion of risk factors that may affect our financial condition and results of operations.
Given the number of participants on the call, we kindly ask you to limit yourself to one question during the Q&A portion. If you have additional questions, please re-queue. With that, I will turn the call over to Don Wood to begin our discussion of first quarter results. Don?
Thanks, Leah, good afternoon, everybody. Strong start to 2023 here with a first quarter ffo per share result, ahead of both consensus and internal expectations, and 6% growth over last first quarter. also happens to be the first quarter result we've ever posted.
Here's the best part. We signed 101 comparable leases for more than 5000,000 sq ft at $34.72 a foot, 11% higher than the cash basis rent the previous tenant was paying in the final year of their lease. 24% on a straight line basis. Demand was exceptional, with momentum encouragingly strong at the end of the quarter, late March. As you know, I've been expecting the inevitable tail off of leasing activity for months and months now as the portfolio leases up.
These activity levels exceed historical levels by 20%-30%. We just plainly haven't seen that tail off yet. The retail demand for the product that we offer is in lockstep with what today's consumers and retailers demand in these affluent first rank suburbs of major metropolitan areas. One of the larger drivers of that leasing performance this quarter was the signing of four grocery deals, three new deals and one renewal.
The renewal was at Dedham Plaza in the Boston suburb with Star Market and Albertsons branch. The new deals included Giant Food, replacing Shoppers Food Warehouse, Loch Raven Plaza in suburban Baltimore. A grocer that I'm not allowed to announce yet, replacing Michaels at Fresh Meadows in Queens. Aldi replacing Barnes & Noble on Long Island.
Together, these four deals started $3.3 million in base rent for $17.81 a foot to $4.4 million in base rent for $23.40 per foot. Strong rents and rent growth in proven productive centers in Northeast densely populated suburbs. The timing of them all getting done in first quarter bodes well for the future.
The Bed Bath bankruptcy filing news, while not exactly welcome, was inevitable, and frankly, better that the band-aid is being ripped off so that we can get on with creating incremental value in our shopping centers. There are many more productive retailers than this one that should be serving our customers. Deals are in the works for all of our Bed Bath boxes, and replacement rent should start to ramp up in late 2024.
With average Bed Bath base rent at $15 a foot, rest assured that Federal's portfolio will be more valuable, not less, once these locations are re-tenanted. Dan will provide more detail on what we've assumed in our numbers. The natural lease expiration of a large format Bed Bath & Beyond store at Wynnewood Shopping Center in suburban Philly closed in January as expected, was the primary cause of a modest 20 basis point drop in occupancy in the quarter.
That closure, along with a Tuesday Morning in suburban Boston that also closed when the lease expired in January, barely overshadowed the many store openings elsewhere throughout the portfolio. Mean while small shop occupancy gains continued unabated during the quarter and increased 50 basis points. That's a total increase in small shop occupancy of 270 basis points since Q1 2022.
The quality of our shop tenants and the discerning way that we choose them at our properties is where we create a ton of value. All small shop tenancy is not created equal. As much as I love the grocery deals I mentioned earlier, it's the retail side of the big four mixed-use communities that I find most impressive.
Taken together, Assembly Row, Bethesda Row, Pike & Rose, and Santana Row are a real company differentiator for Federal and more in demand than ever before. With retail lease occupancy at 98% and tenant sales well above 2019 levels, these properties are humming with estimated foot traffic in excess of 28 million shoppers in the trailing 12 months. That's a big number and comes from the database of Placer.ai. Roughly 2/3 of tenants report sales at the big four, so the numbers are representative.
Overall sales per foot total $700, with total food and beverage sales per foot in excess of $1,000. In our estimation, this is the product and the markets that consumers in a post-COVID world want the most. I know you've heard me say it many times before, but it bears repeating.
Demographics matter, especially in times of economic pressure, and especially now that the $5.5 trillion of government stimulus that propped up the economy during the pandemic years is waning. Past cycles have convinced us that families simply have to have money to spend for retail real estate cash flow to grow. 68,000 households with average annual household income of $150,000 sit within three miles of Federal Realty centers.
That's $10.2 billion of family income generated within a three-mile mile radius, and more than half of those people have a four-year college degree or better. I know of no other significantly sized retail portfolio that can say that. It was a light quarter on the transaction front, where we sold a small grocery-anchored shopping center in the quarter for $13 million.
Not coincidentally, that center, located in very suburban New Britain, Pennsylvania, had one of the lightest three-mile population demos in our portfolio, was an obvious candidate for sale. More interesting was our acquisition of the fee interest in the anchor tenant leases at Huntington Square Shopping Center on Long Island from Seritage Realty Trust for $35.5 million .
Back in 2010, we had purchased a leasehold interest in the shop tenants with the hopes of someday finding a way to consolidate the anchors and the fee. With first quarter transaction, we now fully control this 18-acre parcel in affluent East Northport, Long Island.
As I mentioned earlier, we just replaced Barnes & Noble with an Aldi grocery store here, creating another grocery anchor property in the portfolio. With a $5+ million annual income stream on our $56 million all-in investment, we've created a much more valuable property with an unlevered IRR in the low teens and arguably $20+ million of immediate incremental value.
You might have also noticed that after the quarter's end, we refinanced our $275 million in bonds coming due June first with a new five-year, $350 million green bond at 5.375%. The offering was significantly oversubscribed, with demand helped by our LEED G old or better investments. Next up will be the financing or the refinancing of our $600 million bonds coming due next year. We would expect to be opportunistically in the market at quarter points in the second half of this year.
For an additional source of growth in 2024 and beyond, you only need to look at the $600+ million of construction and process on the quarter end balance sheet to identify a large source of future income on capital already invested, much of it leased, not yet reflected in the results.
What was reflected in the quarterly results was a $10 million property operating income contribution from the latest completed phases of some of our mixed use operating properties, namely Assembly Row Phase III, 909 Rose at Pike & Rose, and a full quarter of stabilized CocoWalk, which contributed. Finally, our floor-by-floor build-out at Santana West seems to be attracting more interest in the marketplace as inquiries and property tours have seen renewed life in the last 30- 60 days.
Tech sector in Silicon Valley is far from settled. The increased activity is certainly welcome. We continue to see our fully amenitized office space at our mixed-use communities to be the product of choice in their respective markets. Okay, that's about it for my prepared remarks this morning. I'll turn it over to Dan before opening it up to your questions.
Thank you, Don. Hello, everyone. Our $1.59 per share of reported FFO is first quarter record for Federal and solidly above our expectations and last year's $1.50 result, representing a 6% annual increase. That our performance again was broad-based as all facets of our business continued to contribute.
Specific drivers which deserve mention, overage percentage rent continues to outpace expectations as tenant sales demonstrate strength and resiliency. Parking revenues also saw gains above forecast as customer traffic at our large mixed use assets continues to drive higher. Small shop occupancy again showed gains and we saw lower expenses both at the property and corporate level. This was offset modestly by higher collectibility impact or bad debt expense than was forecast.
Our GAAP-based comparable POI growth metric was 3.6%, coming in in the upper end of the range of our 2%-4% initial guidance. On a cash basis, comparable excluding prior period rent and term fees is 5.2%.
Cash basis comparable minimum rent grew by 4%. Term fees in the comparable pool this quarter were essentially flat first quarter 2022 at $1.4 million in each period. Prior period rent this quarter was $1.3 million versus $2.4 million in first quarter last year. Please note that we have added all of these figures to pages 10 and 11 of our 8-K supplemental disclosure. You're welcome, Steve.
Year-over-year occupancy results were also solid with our overall occupied metric growing 140 basis points year-over-year from 91.2% - 92.6% and our lease percentage increasing 50 basis points from 93.7% - 94.2%. Sequentially, we took a small but anticipated step backward given 1Q seasonality and two known anchor departures in January at lease expiration, which were reflected in our guidance.
Our signed not occupied spread in the existing portfolio stands at 160 basis points as we continue to show progress in getting tenants open and rent paying. This spread represents roughly $18 million of incremental total rent. Our signed not occupied in our non-comparable pool stands at $18 million as well of total rent, bringing total signed not occupied to $36 million.
This effectively brings our SNO percentage to a total of 3%. These executed leases will continue to drive bottom-line results over the next two years, with roughly 65% coming online over the remainder of 2023 and the balance primarily in 2024. When you include new lease deals in our pipeline for currently unoccupied space, this increases the SNO figure even higher.
Rollover for the quarter was 11% on a cash basis and 24% on a straight line basis. The second consecutive quarter to have the cash number in double digits and the straight line number up into the low to mid-twenties. I highlight the straight line number as it reflects sector-leading contractual annual rent increases embedded in our leases. Both anchor and small shop blended at roughly 2.25% across the portfolio.
Year- to- date, small shop rent bumps have averaged about 3%. Now to the balance sheet. We ended first quarter with $1.3 billion of total available liquidity at quarter end, comprised of $1.2 billion available under our revolver and $100 million of cash.
As many of you saw, we successfully accessed the unsecured market subsequent to quarter end, with $350 million of a five and three-eighths green bond, and as a result, no maturities until early 2024. Also, keep in mind that for our term loan, whose initial maturity is also in 2024, we have two one-year extensions at our option, taking that maturity into 2026.
With respect to our leverage metrics, our net debt to EBITDA ratio is roughly 6x as adjusted. We fully expect to be back to our targeted level in the mid 5x in 2024. Additionally, we are targeting free cash flow after dividends and maintenance capital to return to pre-COVID levels by next year.
Our in-process pipeline of active redevelopments and expansions now stands at $740 million, with only $250 million remaining to spend against our $1.3 billion of available liquidity. On to guidance. With initial guidance to start the year showing FFO growth of 2.5% at the midpoint and 4% at the top of the range and a first quarter under our belts, we are affirming guidance for 2023 at $6.38 - $6.58 per share.
While we continue to see strength and resiliency in our business, with three quarters left for the year, it is rare that we would modify guidance at this point in the year. For the first time in almost two years, we are seeing tenant bankruptcies in retail as selected businesses struggle to compete in a challenging economic environment of higher interest rates and diminished government subsidies from the pandemic.
Despite the bankruptcies to- date, where we have very manageable exposure, we still feel comfortable with our initial 100-135 basis points of total credit reserve, comprised of roughly a 75 basis points general reserve and a 25-60 basis points of specified Bed Bath reserve.
Given where we started May and the expected range of outcomes, this Bed Bath reserve has now been reduced to 20-45 basis points, given the cash rents we've already received on eight of our nine anchor boxes that have not yet been rejected, including May rent. That range will depend on the timing of the bankruptcy process and which leases are affirmed and/or assumed, if any.
From a comparable growth perspective, given a first quarter metric, we are affirming the 2%-4% range for comparable POI growth as well as our 3%-5% range on a cash basis, adjusting for prior period rents and terminals. Page 27 in our 8-K provides an updated summary of the key assumptions for our guidance.
Now in addition to the expanded disclosure on term fees and prior period rent that I previously highlighted, you'll also notice several other additions to our 8-K relating to revenues, comparable POI growth, debt, occupancy, and leasing metrics, demonstrating our commitment to continuing to expand our disclosure to provide the information we believe is most relevant for investors to analyze our business effectively and efficiently. With that, operator, you can open up the line for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.
If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. In the interest of time, please limit yourselves to one question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
T hank you for the time. Just curious on the renewals, those popped up in the fourth quarter. If you look relative to the trailing 12, you also had lower TIs. Is that a mix, or is that kind of a new normal? I know you mentioned some anchor leasing. Just curious if you can comment on that. Thank you.
Yeah. It was essentially a mix, with regards to, you know, just what got done during the quarter. One of them was the grocery renewal that we had up in Dedham, but also just a broader mix. Obviously the TIs, you know, again, a mix of the leases that got done.
The next question comes from Craig Schmidt with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. I kind of wanted to talk about mixed use and added resi. I noticed on your future development opportunity page, you've gone from six mixed use projects that could add residential to now we have 14.
What I'm wondering is, you know, I've heard you say that 1/3 of your properties are mixed use now. Where do you think you might be in five years' time? The second is, will mixed use assets grow faster in their rents than strictly retail ones? What are retailers telling you about mixed use, and what are the resi people telling you about mixed use?
Boy, Craig, that's pretty funny. I love how, you know, we limit it to one question. You have a whole white paper in that in that question there. You're the best. A couple of things.
I apologize upfront.
Don't at all. Don't apologize at all. Let's just have a little fun. Listen, what you see in the 8-K is a continuation of what we believe, and that is the ability wherever we can to maximize the use of the real estate that we own, especially when we're talking about successful retail shopping centers with... You know that ours are on bigger pieces of land.
The ability to add other uses is something that it's just part of our DNA and something we'd like to be able to do. Now, I would not. You should not expect us to be running and putting shovels into the ground over the next nine, 12 months at those projects because the economics don't make any sense today.
I do expect them to make some sense in the future. That's what that is supposed to convey. With respect to the overall mixed use properties, what we have clearly found is that the demand for lots of uses at both, you know, office and retail, and resi, and hotel, frankly, at a really well-done mixed use property is a real differentiator.
It's where people wanna be. It's why in the comments I made, I'm talking about traffic counts that are really enormous. These are a lot of- t here's a lot of visits there, a lot of sales. They also seem to have the ability to raise their prices in places like that more than at more value-oriented properties. I guess you would expect that.
Apple in areas, the lululemon of the world, et cetera, they can raise prices. As a result, we see the ability to charge higher rents there. If we did that right on the ground floor, we should also see outsized returns, both in the form of occupancy and the rates that we're getting upstairs in the other uses. That's been our experience. Frankly, since COVID, I think it's even stronger than it was before COVID.
The next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Don or maybe Wendy, just on the leasing side, I mean, I know the strength is probably surprise to Don. Things have remained healthy, consumer spending has held up. I'm just wondering what you guys are hearing from tenants. You mentioned maybe bankruptcies picking up. I'm just wondering how you feel about the 75 basis point general reserve and, you know, might you not use all of that as you sit here today, just as you survey the landscape?
Steve, let me just kind of add some color first before Dan talks about the numbers. You're right, we're seeing great demand on the retail leasing side, specifically in the small shops. We have not seen a decline of anything considerable as it relates to people's ability to fund projects and make decisions.
They're making decisions for the long term, and they're understanding that with these recession discussions, that these headwinds that we're facing, that the decisions that they're making are critical to their livelihood, especially for the mom and pops. There's a flight to quality that continues to happen in our portfolio. I'm feeling very bullish about what I see in our pipeline. Again, honestly, I was expecting it to level off a little bit, and it has not. It is as robust as ever. I'm very encouraged.
Steve, I would only add to that. Yeah, there might be some room in the 75 basis points, but, you know, I read the same things in the newspapers that you do, and it's May 5th or 4th or whatever day it is. By the way, Steve Sakwa, my 25th anniversary, at least, you know, happy anniversary, Don Wood, right?
It makes me laugh, though, because the power of the small shop tenants and that Wendy mentioned is something I really wanna make sure that you understand a little bit. We don't do kind of first time mom and pops. We don't have those type of businesses here.
They are almost always adding a store or adding a food use from a place that from strong cash flow in another location whereby they're expanding into the third or the fourth or the fifth. There is that flight to quality that's a critical component. If this is anything like whatever happens this year or next year is anything like, you know, prior recessions, this is gonna be one of the strongest parts of our portfolio and the place that differentiates us.
The next question comes from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
G ood evening. Happy 25th, Don.
Thanks, Greg.
Yeah, you're welcome. To celebrate, let's talk about office demand. Can you just talk a little bit more about the interest you're seeing in Santana West? Are those feels like serious inquiries? Is it all tech, whole building or by floor?
Sure.
Any additional color is helpful there. We'd also appreciate updated info on 919 Walnut Street lease up and initial rent contribution expectations. Thanks.
Sure. Yeah. G reg, it's Jeff. Let me start off on the West Coast office leasing, and then Dan or Don can jump in on the second part of your question. The business decision we made late last year to allow the building to be leased floor by floor and to start building out the building, so we were a great alternative to the sublease space that's coming on the market that I'm sure you've heard about is working out for us.
That combined, I think, with a little bit more of a settling, at least in the call it mid-sized tenant market as to what they're gonna need in the way of the office space has caused tours to tick up. We have paper going back and forth with a couple of tenants. They're not full building tenants, but they're multi-floor tenants. I don't know whether we'll get any of them done, of course, at this point, but there is activity, and I would call the activity very good and really happy we made the decision that we made to start building the building out floor by f loor.
Yeah. Greg, just to say the obvious, that is a difference. That is a difference in feeling. I don't think we could have said that, in fact, we didn't say it on the February call or maybe last November. Really happy about that decision at this point, too. Hopefully, it's a... you know, it bears fruit. Time will tell. With respect to 919 , you know, it's really interesting. Not 919 .
915.
915. We haven't done 919 yet. 915, we turned the building over, the floors over to Choice, and they are building out their space. We will have a contribution from them starting next year.
End of the year.
End of this year.
Yeah.
Sodexo also, which as you know, signed the lease. We're almost ready to turn the space over to them. That is going really well. That's the 60 some odd percent of the building that is completely leased.
We have serious back and forths on a number of tenants from most of the rest of the building at this point. It's, it's pretty interesting at a time when, as you know, there can't be a dirtier word than office in the country as is it possible that a subcomponent of office is actually undersupplied.
That subcomponent, could that be mixed-use properties where you have a new building in a first-ring suburb, which is obviously all we have. I'm pretty encouraged by what we're seeing here at Pike & Rose, certainly the same up at a ssembly Row. With new activity at Santana West, I hope we have something to tell you.
The next question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
T hanks for taking my question. Now that you've entered Hoboken, Phoenix, and I know you've mentioned you're not rushing to start digging anytime soon, as you deploy more capital, do you see more urban infill or population growth areas? Maybe just how you think about these two different market types?
Yeah, Connor. You know, i t certainly wouldn't be areas with big population growth. The problem with big population growth means that there's usually room for a lot more supply to be added, and we wanna be in supply-constrained areas. Nothing more supply constrained than Washington Street in Hoboken.
Love the investment that we've made there. We're just getting into on, you know, the one redevelopment there, whether we can effectively make the numbers work. I'm very encouraged by that fact. I would not, again, expect to see us under construction in the next month or two or something like that. That project is very likely to pencil and make some sense.
To the extent we can find more and have it make sense in markets where we already are like that, we'll look at it all day long. That's the type of thing that's far more attractive to us than chasing headcount.
The next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi. Please go ahead.
T his is Sasan for Craig. The active mixed-use redevelopments all have 6% projected returns. How are you thinking about return thresholds for incremental project starts given the elevated cost of capital?
Yeah. No, it's a very good question. I think I've answered this a couple of times before. Think about it this way. We need incremental returns or incremental returns on top of our cost of capital in terms of development of at least 150 basis points from an IRR's perspective, more like 200 basis points from an IRR perspective.
The reason I keep saying IRR perspective is because the stuff that we do in those projects, we won't do unless they grow faster. Our experience has shown us that those projects we are able to increase rents faster. The residential component is important with respect to that. Incrementally, once we get comfortable with what our cost of capital is gonna be, I'd like a little more clarity from the Fed.
Maybe we're getting there, getting a little bit closer that way on the debt side. On top of that, add 150-200, depending on the risk of the particular project from an IRR perspective. Hope that's helpful.
The next question comes from Floris van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please go ahead.
G ood evening. I guess, could I ask about your shop occupancy at 90% leased? What is the gap between occupied and leased? How much more will that number can you drive that over the next two years? How much more do you think that will increase, maybe even this year?
Yeah. The occupied percentage of small shop is 88%. You know, we would expect to be able to drive both of those up higher. I think that's a real opportunity. You know, up towards, you know, the occupied percentage above 90% and up towards north of 92% on the lease side. I think there's still more room to run on that in our portfolio.
The next question comes from Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
G ood afternoon, everybody. Wanted to touch on capital recycling, you know, primarily because it's such an important growth tool for REITs. You know, really it's been hampered, as you know, especially this year. Don, with the Fed, you know, striking a pause here and, you know, some calling for, you know, perhaps a first round of cuts in maybe, you first quarter 2024 or somewhere around that timeframe.
Do you think there's visibility in rates and somewhat of a stability in rates, you know, can, you know, condense or narrow what must be a wide bid-ask spread so, you know, you can, you know, maybe do some accretive acquisitions and reignite that growth engine later in the year?
I do, Derek. I mean, you said the word, you know, in your question. There has to be some level of stability. There has to be predictability. Without that, as there hasn't been, as you know, it's. Sure, the bid-ask is very different. That will change.
It'll change, you know, over time, and there are other things than just Fed policy that dictate whether there is or a acquisition market that makes sense or a disposition market that makes sense. It's not gonna stay the way it is. Yeah, I mean, you know, we run this business, we've run this business for a long time. We'll continue to do that and during those cycles, there will be a reversion to some level of stability that allows us to, you know, to get stuff done. No question.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Dan, you had a slight beat on FFO relative to the consensus. You're not touching guidance 'cause it's still earlier in the year. I guess, like, what are you looking for, you know, over the next three months or when we next speak on an earnings call that would give you more confidence that you can take the year's expectations higher? Separately, like what are you looking for which would maybe give you a little bit more caution in terms of the outlook for the year? Thanks.
Look, I think the biggest driver would be just continued strong leasing volumes. Our pipeline is as strong and as large in terms of what's been executed to date this quarter and what's in the pipeline of executed LOIs. It's never been higher. If that continues or we can see that continue, I think then obviously we'll have some confidence.
On the flip side, look, I think the market is got some risk out there, particularly with regards to, you know, tenants and whether or not, you know, tenants will, you know, be able to weather, you know, this difficult economic environment, whether or not we see a continued uptick in bankruptcies.
I think that balance, we've done very well balancing that. I think that, we've managed to have very little exposure or on a relative basis, certainly, but just in absolute terms, in terms of our exposure to those bankruptcies, we hope that continues.
The next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
T his is Ravi Vaidya on the line for Haendel . I hope you guys are doing well. Just wanted to comment, and ask about the SNO spread. You currently are at 160 basis points. Would you view this as a long-term steady state for what SNO could be?
We've done an exceptional job, I think of bringing our SNO metric down from north of 300 basis points in our existing portfolio down to 160 basis points. We'd like to get that tighter. We'd like to get that down to 100-125 basis points.
One of our differentiators, though, is that we have an SNO in space that is yet to be delivered from our large redevelopment and expansion pipeline that is equal to that size. We have $18 million in the existing portfolio, $18 million of total rent in our development, redevelopment and expansion pipeline, and that equates to over 300 basis points.
I think that's pretty compelling. I don't think anybody has a redevelopment pipeline that has the pre-leasing that's been done, where it's something that is a real differentiator because we got scale. That truly, I think, you know, the equivalent of what's in the existing portfolio and what's in the redevelopment portfolio is effectively, you know, 300 basis points or more.
The next question comes from Hong Zhang with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, g uys. Just a quick question on occupancy. I think last quarter you talked about potentially pushing economic occupancy above 93%, maybe in the mid-93s by year-end. Just wondering if that's changed given the Bed Bath announcement and your views on near-term bankruptcy risk in general.
No, I think, look, it depends on, you know, so far of our nine, you know, anchor boxes, we've only had one lease rejected. We'll see how it plays out. You know, obviously, if there's a full liquidation, then we're not going to be at 93% on occupied percentage.
W e'll be probably closer to 92. We'll see how that all plays out, what gets assumed, what gets, in terms of, you know, what leases get purchased in their liquidation. From that perspective, you know, we, you know, would hope to, you know, have a clearer sense from that number, you know, as the bankruptcy unfolds.
The next question comes from Paulina Rojas-Schmidt with Green Street. Please go ahead.
Hello. Don, you have talked about how you believe your portfolio would outperform peers in an economic downturn, and you have highlighted how affluency, good demographics are a key driver behind that, b ut an area perceived perhaps as vulnerability is your slightly higher exposure to more cyclical categories, restaurants and a little bit more full price apparel.
Could you please provide a little bit of a history lesson on how these segments have performed historically in downturns in your portfolio to have a better understanding of how the overlaps between high demographics and cyclical categories perform?
I can, Paulina. Thanks for asking that. You know, it's kind of why in my prepared remarks, I wanted to make a distinction of how those mixed-use properties with generally, higher end tenants, how effectively they do.
What we have found. Look, retail, sorry, real estate is local. In the specific markets where they are operating, both historically and currently, what we're seeing is increased sales, and importantly, very importantly, in a period of inflation, those tenants have the ability to raise prices. When I sit and I think about, and I don't know the answer to this, but I ask you to consider something like this.
If you take aspirational tenants, you know, the lululemon of the world, people like that effectively, and imagine how much they've been able to increase prices over the next last two years of inflation and compare that, you know, more to, you know, maybe the Big Lots of the world or something that that is, you know, aiming for a lower demographic, it's harder to push price increases. That's a really important thing for us in all parts. That includes restaurants, et cetera. I don't know whether I've told you this before or not, I don't remember.
Everybody was worried about Federal Realty going into the 2008 and 2009, you know, great financial crisis because we had more restaurants, because we had more lifestyle, if you will. Everybody was worried about Federal, and it turned out that those were the best performing categories in the company during that.
When I look today at our company, and I look at the restaurant performance in the mixed-use properties, they are generating over $1,000 a foot, you know, of sales. Part of that is because they've been able to raise prices. Part of that is because there's a huge amount of volume that goes through there. That gives them the ability to certainly cover the rents that we're charging them and more.
When you think about that in those type of areas, we would expect that to continue to happen. The conversations we have, and we are very tight. You know, we're a smaller company in terms of number of properties than our competitors. We have very close relationships with our tenants.
We understand, you know, what it is that they are doing to be able to work through difficult, more difficult economic times. Those things give me confidence because we have been doing this a long time and there are cycles, and I expect it to behave similar to the way it's behaved historically. I hope that's helpful.
The next question comes from Tayo Okusanya with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, everyone. Congrats on the solid quarter. Don, last quarter, when you kinda talked about dispositions, it sounded like there was a pipeline of kind of a little bit over $100 million or so you were working on.
I think this quarter you kind of announced $13 million of it done. Could you talk about like the rest of the pipeline and what's kind of happening there, you know, whether it's kinda taking a little bit longer to close deals because of the shakeout on the debt market. Just give us a sense of maybe what's kind of happening on that front.
Yeah. We have and continue to have a list of assets that we would recycle as a component of our business plan. Frankly, we have that list in good times and bad times that, you know, in terms of what it is, those are not a lot of pro-properties, but it's a few that we look at. That's what we talked about last quarter, last year, et cetera. We gotta get comfortable that we're gonna get paid well. So in going through that process, we couldn't get comfortable on as many of those assets as we thought we could.
That doesn't mean they come off the table. That just means pursuant to the question that was asked a little bit earlier, once there's some stability and some understanding of the general market conditions, you'll see a pickup in the disposition side of our business. I don't know, Dan or Jeff, do you have anything to add to that?
I think that's it.
The next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
I'm not sure if you look at this way, but I think one of your peers talked about the average rents in their SNO pipeline. I was just wondering if you had a number for that for yours?
Probably on a total rent basis in the kind of the low to mid-40s, and probably in the upper 30s, you know, mid to upper 30s, on a base rent basis. We can come back to you with more precise numbers. I don't have them exactly here.
Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
T hank you. Good evening. Don, a number of years ago, you guys expanded into the Hispanic centers out in California, and just sort of looking for an update on that. Also, you know, the Korean, like the H Mart of the world seems to also be a pretty powerful anchor, and those shopping centers also seem to have that cult type following. Do you see expanding into, you know, more in the Asian, Hispanic centers? You know, has your experience so far with what you bought a number of years ago, maybe not panned out the way you thought?
Thanks, Alex. No, it has panned out the way we thought. In fact, probably better than we thought in terms of given the fact that we didn't consider a global pandemic, and those properties performed exceptionally well during the pandemic.
The answer to your question really depends on the right local partner. It really depends on the market, of course, that we need to be comfortable with and a partner that we would need to be aligned with respect to our views and the way we can manage a property. Primestor has been that. It's been a very good partnership.
We've had trouble adding more to it. We would have liked to have added more to it, but those are individual deal by deal, and they've got to make some sense, and we didn't find any that made sense. Those assets perform real well. I'll actually be out there on Monday of next week with Primestor. That part's worked out really well.
In terms of any other, you know, property type with a demographic that we're not as comfortable with, as I say, we need the right partner because these are real estate decisions that have to be operated and have to be leased and have to be grown specific to a market that if we're not familiar with, we will get hurt. We better have the right partner, and we've not found that at this time.
This concludes our question- and- answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leah Brady for any closing remarks.
We look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks. Thanks for joining us today.
Conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.