Greetings. Welcome to the Federal Realty Investment Trust Q3 2021 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mike Ennes. Thank you. You may begin.
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Federal Realty's Q3 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call are Don Wood, Dan Gee, Jeff Berkes, Wendy Seher, Don Becker, and Melissa Solis. They will be available to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks. A reminder that certain matters discussed on this call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any annualized or projected information, as well as statements referring to expected or anticipated events or results, including guidance. Although Federal Realty believes that expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Federal Realty's future operations and its actual performance may differ materially from the information in our forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that these expectations can be attained.
The earnings release and supplemental reporting package that we issued today on our annual report filed on Form 10-K and our other financial disclosure documents provide a more in-depth discussion of risk factors that may affect our financial condition and results of operations. We kindly ask that you limit your questions to one question and a follow-up during the Q&A portion of our call. If you have additional questions, please feel free to jump back in the queue. With that, I will turn the call over to Don Wood to begin our discussion of our Q3 results. Don?
Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everybody. By the way, that was Mike Ennes subbing in for Leah Brady, organizing this call today, as Leah just gave birth to her second child last week, a boy named Weston. Mom and baby are doing great. If you do get the chance, please reach out by email to congratulate her. My prepared remarks today are going to sound a lot like last quarter because the recovery continues unabated and ahead of schedule. The momentum that we took into the Q2 carried through and in fact strengthened in the Q3, most evidently on the office leasing demand side at our mixed use properties. Let me just cut to the chase here and summarize where we are in five easy points. For one, we killed it in the Q3 at $1.51 a share.
Secondly, we raised our 2021 total year guidance by over 7% at the midpoint. Thirdly, we raised our 2022 guidance, the only shopping center real estate company to give 2022 guidance so far, by the way. Similarly, by over 6% at the midpoint. Dan is going to talk about 2023 and 2024 also. We executed 119 retail leases for 430,000 feet of comparable space at 7% higher cash basis rents than the leases they replaced. We ended up the quarter with our office product fully leased up at CocoWalk. 89% leased or under executed LOI at Pike & Rose. 88% leased or under executed LOI at Assembly Row. Heck, we're even having some consequential discussions with full building users at Santana West.
After the quarter, you might have seen last week that we signed a 105,000 sq ft deal with Choice Hotels to be the lead tenant in the next phase at Pike & Rose. That's some serious office leasing progress for any three-month period. Never mind one in which decision makers are still unsure of their future office space needs. It sure says a lot about amenity-rich new construction in our markets. We'll put more meat on the bone for each of those points and others. That's where this company is as we sit here in the first week of November 2021. We're feeling great about our market position. With FFO at $1.51 per share, we exceeded even our most optimistic internal forecasts, core up 35% over last year's recovering Q3.
We didn't anticipate the bounce back in nearly all facets of our business to be so fast and so strong, even with the effects of the Delta variant surge. The quarterly positive impact of the faster recovery meant that we collected more rent in the Q3 from prior periods than we anticipated. $8 million collected versus a few million forecast. We had significantly less unpaid rent in the quarter than we anticipated. We collected 96% of what was due. We had far fewer tenant failures than we anticipated, and at $4.9 million, we had far higher percentage rent from COVID modified and unmodified leases than we had anticipated. We also had less dilution from our new residential construction in Assembly Row because our lease up is well ahead of schedule at this point. Nearly half the new residential building is already leased.
Heck, even the three hotels in our mixed use properties are performing better than we thought that they would be at this point, with occupancy at all three back into the mid-60s% and better. Of course, we more than covered our dividend on an operating cash basis in the Q3, as we did last quarter. As a reminder, that's the dividend that was never cut during COVID. All that means that we'll significantly raise earnings guidance and take a peek at the out years too. As we've said all along, visibility toward 2022 earnings was ironically better than 2021. That's proven to be the case. Dan will talk through guidance details in a few minutes. On the retail leasing side, we continue to see strong demand across the board and see that continuing for the foreseeable future.
Over the last 4 quarters, we've done 442 comparable deals for nearly 2 million sq ft, not counting another couple of 100,000 sq ft for non-comparable new development. To put that into context, that's 27% more deal volume, 25% more square footage than the annual average over the last decade. A decade that itself was very strong for us from a retail leasing standpoint. As we've been saying all along, demand for Federal Realty properties, that's not the issue. They're in high demand from today's relevant and well-capitalized restaurants and retailers that are all trying to improve their sales productivity post-COVID through better real estate locations. We've always been pickier than most in terms of the tenants we choose to curate our centers.
When you couple that with the execution of the broad post-COVID property improvement plans that we've talked about over the last several quarters, that higher capital outlay today will result in significantly higher asset value tomorrow, places that are more fresh, more dominant, more relevant in a myriad of ways in the communities they serve for years and years to come. The value of our real estate net of capital is going up, and the prospects appear to be better than they were before COVID. A signed lease does not equal a rent start, and the well-publicized supply chain issues affecting most U.S. businesses will have to be managed thoughtfully and deftly in the next 18 months to move all those tenants from signed lease commitments to build-out operating stores in the shortest possible time frame at a reasonable cost.
Whether we're talking about a shortage of rooftop air conditioning units or production shortages for kitchen equipment from overseas or materials stuck on boats waiting to offload, supply chain issues are broad and to some extent unpredictable. As a company, we're all over it, and we have been for months. Early ordering, stockpiling, problem-solving, and leveraging long-standing relationships are all tools that we're using to mitigate build-out delays. At quarter's end, our portfolio was 92.8% leased and 90.2% occupied, both improvements over last quarter and the quarter before that. We're a long way from being 95% leased, which we were just three years ago.
The earnings upside from not only getting rent started in all the leasing we've done to date, but the continuation of occupancy gains to historic levels, maybe higher over the next couple of years, provides a visible and low-risk window into strong future growth. That's before considering the inevitable earnings growth coming from the lease-up of our billion-dollar-plus development and redevelopment pipeline, the costs of which are largely locked in, and our very active acquisition program also will add to that. By the way, we did close on the $34 million acquisition of Twinbrooke Shopping Center in Fairfax, Virginia, in another off-market transaction during the Q3, marking the fifth deal that we closed in 2021 and the second in Northern Virginia. Very excited about the remerchandising and rent upside at this underinvested shopping center staple in the middle of Fairfax County.
I've got to believe that the visibility of this company's bottom-line earnings growth coming out of COVID is, on a risk-adjusted basis, one of the, if not the, most transparent in the sector. That's about all I have for my prepared comments. Let me turn it over to Dan, and we'll be happy to entertain your questions after that.
Thank you, Don. Good afternoon, everyone. Feels really good to be here discussing another quarter where we blew away expectations. $1.51 per share of FFO represented a 7% sequential gain over a strong Q2, 35% above 3Q last year, and was $0.23 above our expectations, which represents an 18% beat. As Don highlighted, the outperformance was broad-based, with upside coming from continued progress on collections, occupancy and leasing gains, better than forecasted contributions from hotel, parking, and percentage rent, faster lease-up at our developments, and another accretive off-market transaction. While collections climbed higher to 96% in the current period, up from 94% last quarter, plus another $8 million of prior period collection, leasing is what continues to command center stage for yet another quarter at Federal.
Momentum that started during the second half of 2020 continues with a 5th consecutive quarter of well above average leasing volumes across the portfolio. We saw our occupied percentage surge 60 basis points in the quarter from 89.6% to 90.2%. Other strong leasing metrics to note, our small shop lease occupancy metric continued its climb upward as it grew another 40 basis points to 86.1%, coming on top of the nearly 200 basis point gain in the Q2. Overall, small shop is up 260 basis points year-over-year. Leasing momentum continues to be driven by strength in our lifestyle portfolio as we sign leases with such relevant tenants of tomorrow.
Names such as Whole Foods, Jenni Kayne, American Giant, Herman Miller, Peloton, GLOSSLAB, Purple, another Faherty location, another like Nike location, our fourth this year, and restaurants such as The Salt Line, Molto, Sprezzatura, Astro Beer Hall, Gregorys Coffee, and Van Leeuwen. Just to name a few. Some of these names you may not be familiar with, but trust me, you will. Office leasing continues to be a bright spot, with 224,000 sq ft of leases signed during the quarter and subsequent to quarter end, including the investment-grade Choice Hotel deals with Don Highland. Comparable property growth, again, while not particularly relevant this year, continued its resurgence of 16%. Please note, for those that keep track, as we expected, term fees in the quarter were down significantly to $500,000 versus $6.1 million in the Q3 of last year.
A headwind of -4.2%. Without it, our comparable metric would have been 20%. Our remaining spend on our $1.2 billion in-process development pipeline stands at $215 million, with another $50 million remaining on our property improvement initiatives across the portfolio. You may have noticed that we added a new project to our redevelopment schedule in our 8-K, a complete repositioning of Huntington Shopping Center on Long Island. An $80 million project which will transform a physically obsolete power center on a great piece of land into a re-merchandised Whole Foods anchored center. The project is expected to achieve an incremental yield of 7%. Now on to the balance sheet and an update on liquidity and leverage.
With $125 million of mortgage debt having been repaid over the last 60 days, we have no debt maturing until mid-2023. We continue to be opportunistic, selling tactical amounts of common equity through our ATM program under forward sales agreements. As a result, we maintain ample available liquidity of $1.45 billion as of quarter end, comprised of our undrawn $1 billion revolver, roughly $180 million of cash, and $270 million of equity to be issued under forward agreements. Additionally, our leverage metrics continue to show marked improvement. Pro forma for our 2021 acquisitions and forward equity under contract, our run rate for net debt to EBITDA is down to 6.0x. Pro forma for leases signed, yet not open, the figure is 5.8x.
Fixed charge coverage is back up to 3.9x. Our targeted leverage ratios remain in the low to mid 5x for net debt to EBITDA and above 4x for fixed charge coverage. We are almost there. Finally, let's turn to guidance. Given the strong recovery we are experiencing in 2021, we will be meaningfully increasing guidance again for both this year and 2022. Taking 2021 up 7.4% from a prior range of $5.05-5.15 to $5.45-5.50 per share.
This implies 21% year-over-year growth vs 2020 at the midpoint, and are taking 2022 up 6.5% from a prior range of $5.30-5.50 to a revised range of $5.65-5.85 per share. While maybe premature, preliminary targets from our model show FFO growth in 2023 and 2024 in the 5%-10% range. The drivers behind the improved outlook for 2021, first, a significantly stronger Q3 than previously expected. This should continue in the Q4 as we increase our Q4 estimate to $1.36-1.41 per share. A 10% improvement versus previous guidance, but down from this quarter. While we again collected more rent than expected from prior periods in the Q3, we don't expect that to repeat.
Repairs and maintenance, demo and other expenses are all expected at elevated levels as we continue to drive the quality of our existing portfolio, and G&A will be higher in the Q4 as well, given higher compensation expense. In addition, we forecast issuing $150 -200 million of common equity under our forward agreements before year-end. For 2022, the improvement in outlook is driven by strength across all facets of our business. Stronger occupancy growth, driven by the continued momentum in leasing activity. Contributions from our in-process $1.2 billion development pipeline. A full year contribution for all of our 2021 acquisitions. Higher collections as we return to pre-COVID levels. Let me try to add some color to each of these areas to provide greater transparency to a multiyear path of outsized growth.
The first driver of growth, occupancy and leasing, which I would like to break into two components. First, what deals are already executed? With physical occupancy at 90.2% and our lease rate at 92.8%, our signed not open spread is 260 basis points for our in-place portfolio. This represents roughly $25 million of incremental total rent. The second component, what leasing demand will drive going forward? Given the strength of our leasing pipeline, getting back to 95% lease, a level we were at just three years ago, is certainly achievable.
If you look at our current pipeline of new leasing activity for currently unoccupied space, this could add another approximately 115 basis points to the current lease percentage for $12 million of total rent upside when executed. Please note, for every 100 basis points of occupancy gain, we see roughly $10 million in additional total rent on average. The third driver of growth, our development pipeline. That $1.2 billion of spend will throw off just over $10 million of POI in 2021 for about 1%. With a stabilized projected yield in the mid- to low-6% range, it should produce $70 -75 million of POI when stabilized.
This $60-65 million of incremental POI should begin to deliver more fully in 2022, but will also be a meaningful driver of POI growth in 2023 and 2024. Please note, as we did before COVID, next quarter, we plan to re-include in our 8-K supplement the disclosure detailing the ramp-up of POI for each of the projects in our pipeline. The fourth driver of growth in 2022, acquisitions. As Don mentioned, the closing of Twinbrooke Shopping Centre, our fifth off-market deal of the year, brings our consolidated investment to $440 million, with $360 million on a pro rata basis. With a blended going-in yield of 5.5% plus a full year of contribution, these purchases are very accretive. Lastly, collections.
Current period collections for 2021 are forecasted to finish at 95% on average for the entire year. We are expecting that to be higher in 2022 with pre-COVID levels returning in 2023. This is expected to more than offset any fall off in prior rent collection next year. Keep in mind, for every 100 basis points of collection percentage improvement, it represents almost $9 million annually. Please note that similar to last quarter, there is no benefit assumed to our guidance in either 2021 or 2022 from switching tenants from cash basis back to accrual basis accounting.
The combination of these primary drivers of growth, supplemented by forecasted upside in other parts of our business, such as parking, hotel investments, and percentage rent, gives us a clear and transparent path of growth, not only in 2022, but beyond into 2023 and 2024. We couldn't be happier with our market position and expect to have sector leading FFO growth over the next few years. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. As a reminder, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up per person. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question is from Alexander Goldfarb of Piper Sandler. Please state your question.
Hey, good evening, Sarah, Don. Great to see that you already are putting out 2023 and 2024 guidance. I'm gonna guess it's gonna be the standard thing. You're gonna sandbag those, and next quarter, we'll see those numbers raised as well. The bigger question here, Don, is what is actually going on at the properties, at the operations everywhere that the recovery is so strong and the tenant demand is so strong? Meaning a number of years ago, tenants were still coming to your centers, taking space. They could see the consumers shopping at your properties. What has gone on now that it's supercharged? Is it just merely that these tenants don't have the threat of the online shopping?
I mean, it's just been incredible, and I know I've asked this question before, but the pace of demand across retail this quarter is just mind-blowing, and it just really begs the question, were retailers really just holding back before, or is it really flushing out of the bad credit that's allowed you guys to have better space to rent to people who are willing to pay higher rents?
Yeah. Well, first of all, Alex, it's good to know that you're very predictable in terms of the first part of your statement, so without a question. In terms of the question you're asking, you know, it's a whole bunch of things. It's not just one thing. Certainly the notion of the amount of time that a lot of people, certainly in our markets, had not been out and had been at home and have restrictions one way or the other. I gotta tell you, as you know, that gets old. I think you're seeing a revised and a rejuvenated, if you will, love for socialization.
I can tell you any restaurant certainly in New York that you would see would be, you know, you can't even get a reservation. We're seeing that same thing throughout our properties. People wanna be out. Tenants are upgrading their space and having the ability, and you know, obviously I'm talking our portfolio primarily, but having the ability to get into better real estate in a portfolio that was as low as 89-some-odd% leased, that's as rare as it gets for Fed. The ability to actually have a chance to upgrade is
It's a huge driver, as we've been talking about all the way through. From a consumer perspective, you've certainly got the demand. From a real estate perspective, the tenant perspective, you certainly have a demand. The other side of it is. This surprised me. You can call it sandbagging or what. Whatever, but it surprised me that we have not lost more tenants over the past 6 or 8 months in 2021. The notion of tenants holding onto their properties and finding a way to make it through and not wanting to lose their superior positions in real estate was greater than we expected.
The combination of not losing them, having availability from the 89% coming back up, and the strong consumer demand, you put those three things together, and I think you've got the bulk of the answer to your question. We, as I say, don't see a change to that at this point. It's continuing strong in an unabated way.
Okay. The second is on office. You had a win with Choice Hotels. I think you mentioned Santana West. You know, we all hear the low return to office numbers, and yet all the office companies talk about the really strong leasing that's going on. Clearly, you're seeing that in demand for your for your different mixed-use projects. As you look out over the next 12 months, how many new office projects do you think you could start based on the conversations that you're having today? Is it just one or two, or you think you could easily announce four, five, six buildings to go?
No, Alex. It's the Choice building. It's one. So, you know, for us, first of all, just get it all in perspective, right? There is Assembly Row with office, Pike & Rose with office, potential opportunities, and it's Santana Row. In all three markets, the demand is there. The Santana West is a different kettle of fish because it's one big building that we're looking for one big tenant to take the whole thing. At Assembly, what has happened to the building that was PUMA and just PUMA forever has been astonishing in the past period of time. There, you may see us able to announce another building next year. We're working it hard right now.
To your point, that demand could mean that there's a faster route to the next building. In terms of Pike & Rose, we certainly didn't expect to be announcing another office building here. As you know, the building we just moved into, we were the only tenants in here on August tenth of 2020. So the notion that this building is 90% or 89% leased, whatever it is, and our conversations with Choice, who originally started about this building, was such that we could not accommodate them, so that we needed, if we wanted to do that deal, to start another building. It's astonishing. I don't think this is even-handed throughout the country.
Obviously, there's a whole question of you know, what happens to office space in terms of needs going forward over the next decade. I know if you're in amenity-rich environments with new buildings in places like where you are, I know you're in the catbird seat because I'm seeing it in terms of the deals we're doing. 1, maybe 2 buildings over the next year.
Okay. Thank you, Don.
Our next question is from Craig Schmidt of Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thanks. I guess, the acquisitions in your acquisition pipeline, are these still deals that you originated in 2020, or are they deals that you struck up since 2021 started? How are you dealing with the more competitive cap rates?
Everything we've announced to this date were pre-COVID negotiated deals or deals that started in their negotiation. Pre-COVID often got renegotiated during COVID and allowed us to close, to me, 5 of the best acquisitions we've ever done at this company. Now, going forward, you bet it's different because it snapped back in a big way. I'm gonna let Jeff kind of give you his perspective of where that road leads. Doesn't mean we can't find them, but it's certainly harder than it was to be able to get those 5 deals done during COVID. David?
Yeah. Craig, as you probably know, the market, like Don said, has snapped back very quickly and is very active. Deals, you know, institutional quality, pro strength deals in the markets where we do business are now, you know, 4.5%-5% cap deals, so very aggressive pricing. We have a pretty strong pipeline. Our acquisitions teams are busy. Nothing real material to talk about yet, but, you know, we've got some stuff on the horizon we're excited about. And, you know, maybe next quarter or two, we'll be able to just talk more about it. But the market's picked up very, very significantly, and we're obviously happy to see that.
Being disciplined and, you know, differentiating ourselves by trying to get stuff before it comes to market and put our money into assets that we think we have a reasonable chance to redevelop and grow the income stream over time.
You know, Craig, the only thing I just wanna add to that is. It's a different perspective when you're trying to do what Jeff is talking about here, when you also have the development pipeline that's already been spent creating inevitable future growth, when you also have a portfolio that was hit harder during COVID, and therefore has more room to grow to get back to a stabilized occupancy. There are other levers, if you will, to pull that continue the growth. Frankly, any acquisitions are, you know, the cherry on the top of an already very robust growth profile.
Great. Just on the other arm of external growth, maybe you could talk about Huntington, and do you already have a anchor lined up to take the newly constructed anchor and small shop space?
Yeah, let's talk about Huntington. First of all, I think Simon did an amazing job at the adjacent Walt Whitman Mall to Huntington. They just did a great job bringing the entire profile of that product up to what that market frankly deserves. That we would've liked to have done something similar at Huntington, but we have leases in place which are restricted. Well, COVID took care of that, didn't it? The notion of being able, therefore, to go and lock in Whole Foods as our anchor, which we have, is a game changer.
Now the future of Huntington, which will marry up very nicely to a brand-new Walt Whitman Mall adjacent to it with a Whole Foods anchored center on that piece of land, I mean, it's gold. Give us a couple of years to get it built out and done, and that'll be another avenue for future growth for Federal.
Yeah. It seems like you're laying the groundwork for an extended period of above average growth, you know, given that this would open in 2024.
It certainly feels like it, Craig. It certainly feels like it.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Katy McConnell of Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thank you. I just had another one on the new office plans for Pike & Rose. Wondering if you can provide some context around what you're expecting from a cost perspective, and just based on leasing progress to date, would you expect yield somewhere close to the office portion of phase three?
Yeah. You know, it's a good question, Katy. We are in pretty darn good shape in locking up our costs, but we're not all the way there yet. Basically, at the end of the day, we should be able to yield a 6 and potentially better on the building. The building'll be close to $200 million to build. Hopefully not that high, but somewhere around that spot. What it does is a fully loaded 6 to the extent you can talk about incremental, it would be higher. We're really just thrilled to be able to take what we've done and capitalize on it.
I couldn't imagine starting that in, you know, in a place that wasn't already very established with the amenity base already here.
Okay, great. Then just on that, the results, and we saw a big pop in straight-line this quarter. I'm curious if you started converting any of your cash leases tenants back to accrual this quarter. How should we think about the run rate of straight-line going into 2022, since it's probably gonna be lumpy?
It'll be lumpy, but it should grow with all the office leasing that we're doing. You know, the big driver was PUMA this quarter, which is still in a free rent period. But as we do more and more office leasing, that's gonna push to our straight line rent increasing, and that should increase, you know, next quarter and into 2022. No changes to how we're assessing kind of cash to accrual.
Okay, great. Thanks.
Our next question is from Derek Johnston of Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. Good evening, everyone. How you doing?
Hi, Derek.
Have any of the Big Three master mixed-use developments recovered more briskly? Are there any leading or notable laggards? And if so, does that bode well for a snapback in demand, clearly for the laggard in the coming quarters? Or would you describe demand as leasing demand as being relatively balanced across the Big Three?
I would. I would say it's balanced now. All three of them, you know, they got hurt a lot more than obviously than the essential-based properties throughout the portfolio. Those three still are not back to where they're going to be or where we want them at all. Yes, there's outside growth at those properties because as you know, I mean, the office leasing is just one component of what we're seeing. Then you can imagine what it's doing to the retail side in terms of the leasing that's coming to fill space that hadn't been there before.
That growth will continue, and it'll take all of 2022, and probably into 2023, where you'll continue to see that outside growth from those three properties. They're special properties, man. That is where people wanna be. It's also, as you can imagine, where people wanna live. I think we're like 97% leased at our, you know, at the residential component of those assets. Certainly we have some restrictions in the jurisdictions that they're in on the ability to increase rents in the case of Montgomery County and, you know, evict in the case of Somerville, Massachusetts. Overall, when you sit and you think about those, they were the places of choice.
We see some real good long-term growth on that component of those mixed-use properties also.
Oh, okay. Great. Just back to the off-market COVID era acquisitions, especially the four big ones prior to Twinbrooke, or even including Twinbrooke. With private markets, which we've discussed being competitive and cap rates compressing, where do you feel those four assets would trade if they were being marketed today versus in the throes of the pandemic? Or how much value do you think has already been harvested in your view?
Significant. You know, Jeff and I argue about this 'cause it's all conjecture, right? Who knows? When you look at what things are trading at all the way through, I'm thinking 15%, maybe 20% more. Big numbers.
Great, guys. Thanks.
Our next question is from Greg McGinniss of Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good evening. Dan, and I apologize, I know you covered some of this already, but could you please just outline the one-time items in Q3 results or changes expected into Q4? Then what are the base assumptions that underlie future guidance, and especially if you could just touch on the expected cadence of occupancy recovery, that'd be appreciated. Thank you.
Sure, sure. I mean, the big items for next quarter is, as I mentioned, higher expenses at the property level, you know, repairs and maintenance, demo, other expenses. You know, I don't expect prior period rent to be as strong consistently. We've been poor forecasters of prior period rent. I think at some point that's gonna fall off, and I think this quarter feels like it probably is the quarter that'll have that happen. You know, I think we will be issuing, and we plan to be issuing about $150 -200 million of equity in the quarter, which will cause some drag. Then G&A is expected to be a bit higher due to compensation expenses.
Those are the main drivers that take us off of the 151 that we had this quarter. In terms of cadence of occupancy, I think next year—like by year end, we should see continued growth in our occupancy percentage from the 90.2 where it is today, probably somewhere between 90.5% and 91%, in that range. Then over the course, we'll be somewhere. I think we should get into the 92s by year end 2022. Somewhere between 92% and 93% is the cadence on occupancy.
Okay. Great. Thanks. Thinking about lease structure kind of post-pandemic, have there been any changes in lease terms or needs from retailers and office tenants as you talk to them today?
On the retail side, Greg, I don't see any changes. I did when we were in the middle of COVID. As we're coming out, I see that, you know, we're in a strong position to negotiate what I call real deals and also participate in some cases in a percentage override. So no. I think that we're in a strong position to continue to negotiate strong contracts for the future.
On the office side, have you seen any changes?
I like the way Wendy put it, Greg. They're real deals. There's a lot of capital on all deals today, and that's a trend that continues. The rent pays for it. When you look at it net of capital, these are good deals.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Juan Sanabria of BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. Thanks for the time. Just curious on a couple of the hot topic items. One, inflation, and two, supply chain issues. What impacts they're having. Do you expect the supply chain issues to have the leased versus occupied spread widen out further before it contracts, given maybe some delays in getting permits and/or parts? You mentioned HVAC units. Just curious on how you see inflation impacting the profitability of your tenants. In particular, I'm curious about your thoughts on the grocers.
Yeah, no, there's a lot to unpack in there. Certainly, as I tried to hit in the prepared remarks, I mean, the supply chain issues are so broad. They gotta be managed really tightly, and there is absolutely risk there. When you go from lease to actually getting a tenant open, we had better be proactive. We have been extremely proactive about, you know, whether it be allowing for a larger lead time, whether it be moving ahead with work effectively before everything is all tied up.
A big one, and Wendy mentions this all the time, and that's how I know it must be pervasive, is using our relationships with our tenants to be able to divide up work for who has the best leverage in a situation to get the appropriate supplies or to trade some things out, has been really effective. I am certainly not expecting us to have significant delays throughout the year. There will certainly be examples where we do. There will be other examples where we'll beat. Your point is important. It has to be a very proactive and creative way to deal with something that is, in some respects, uncontrollable. We'll see how that plays out. So far, so good.
Now on the costs, really good thing that the biggest piece of our development pipeline is already locked in, and is, you know, even as I sit here in 909 Rose, our office building here, this building was built with 2018 money. You know, even though there's been a delay, it's taken longer to effectively get it leased up. Now that it has, those deals are really good deals on 2018 money. This will work out just fine. Same way at Santana, same way up in Assembly. On the new stuff, we got to lock in early best we can, lock in price ex escalation. We got to leverage buying power with bulk purchases. We have to sole source alternate suppliers.
It's all part of a very proactive and tightly controlled development organization I think we're really good at.
Thanks for that. Then just my follow-up would just be on cap rates for acquisitions you're looking at. You kind of mentioned in the release that, you know, you're aggressively looking for opportunities. Should we think of those as opportunities for kind of those mid- to high-fours for stabilized assets, or are you targeting more redevelopment opportunities that maybe have some potential for you guys to add value with your platform and/or leasing expertise? Just curious on how we should be kind of thinking about that going forward.
I think you really need to think about it from an IRR perspective because going in cap rates today are so you don't even know what the NOI or the POI that's being capped is when people talk about cap rates the way they are because of the disruptions of COVID, because of the assumptions being made about re-leasing and things like that. You know, you have to dig deeper when somebody gives you a cap rate. From our perspective, we don't say no to something at a 4 or say yes to something at a 6 based on that cap rate. We are looking at where we can create value in that real estate and honestly looking at IRR with IRR assumptions.
To the extent our IRR is over and above 150 basis points of our cost of capital as we define it, we like that deal. Sometimes 100 basis points over, sometimes 200 basis points over. But we look at IRR in a very honest, sober way because I think if you only think about it from a cap rate perspective, you kind of miss the opportunities in development.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith of UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Good evening, Don and Dan. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Your occupied percentage grew 50-60 basis points sequentially, but leased occupancy grew a bit less than that sequentially. Can you help bridge the gap between all the strong commentary about what you're seeing in retail leasing and kind of how that's reflected in your lease percentage? And then also, is 200-250,000 sq ft of new leases the right pace to expect going forward?
Yeah. With regards to the lease percentage being a little slower, it was actually reversed the last quarter where our lease percentage was up significantly, like 90 basis points, something like that. Look, it's quarter-over-quarter. Look for the trends. We see trends continuing upwards on our lease percentage quarter-over-quarter. Some quarters may be a little slower. We had some tenants who left. We took some space back. There were some issues that came up this quarter that put a little bit of a damper on our lease percentage momentum.
We would expect, given the leasing activity that we have and the leasing activity in unoccupied space that we see, we should see you know that should resume to a better than 10 basis point increase that you saw this quarter. I think one thing to comment on is that you know our occupied percentage grew 60 basis points. I don't think we had any impact. We got rent started, and it was I think a strong quarter for that in terms of getting tenants in, getting them rent paying. You know that's gonna ebb and flow from quarter to quarter. Don't look at any one particular quarter, look at the trends over time.
I think you see, looking backwards, the trends have been very positive, and I think that, going forward, we should expect that as well.
That's really helpful. Then a longer-term question. Don, you've talked a lot about you reaching $7 a share in FFO over the past several calls, you know, just updated guidance of, you know, if you take the high end of 2022 numbers and, you know, you get 10% growth in 2023 and 2024, you're gonna get there. What has to go right in order for you to get there kind of by the end of 2024?
What's happening now. The single biggest thing that's gonna impact the timing of this trajectory is the lease up of the Santana West building in California. As I said, you know, that's kind of an on/off switch. Or hopefully it's an on/off switch because we're looking for a single tenant, a user of the building, or at least the majority of the building. The timing of that creates variability in, you know, in that trajectory. The second thing is, I am very confident this is gonna be a 95% lease portfolio. The trajectory of that 95, we have to see. To the extent it's quicker, we'll get to 70 faster. To the extent it's slower, we'll get to it slower.
Basically, what we're seeing happening now, the continuation of that will get you there. I hope that's helpful.
Thank you very much.
Our next question is from Haendel St-Juste of Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Hey there. I guess my first question's on capital allocation. You talked a lot about the cap rate compression in the market, seeing grocer deals in the 4.5%-5%. I guess I'm curious how you're thinking about incremental dispositions in the face of this strength to fund some of your external growth pursuits, and how that maybe you're thinking about your stock as currency with implied cap here in the high 4% range.
Yeah, on the you know, disposition side of things, we do what we always do and comb through the portfolio, and if there's assets that aren't keeping up with the growth that we've projected for the rest of the portfolio, we look at selling them, and we're you know, actively in that process right now. Again, nothing to talk about on this call, but you know, we always look at peeling off a portion of the portfolio, and that's generally $100 million or so every year, and we're in that process right now. You know, Handel, just to make a point, you know, we expect stock price to go up.
Accordingly, when you're looking at capital allocation, how you're gonna fund our growth, whether that's with those dispositions or whether it's with equity or, you know, we take a balanced approach. You should expect some dispositions and taking advantage of the market that is there today. As Dan Gee said, you should expect some of the forward contracts that we've taken to be issued all on a modest basis. All with a balanced approach so that I'm not surprising you with one, you know, way to fund this company, but that we're using all the tools we've got available.
Okay. I don't know if I missed this. You talked about the $25 million of signed but not leased rent. Did you talk about what proportion of that will likely hit or is embedded in your 2022 guidance?
Yeah. A big chunk of that number will hit in 2022. You know, I would say that 90% of the income from those leases will happen in, you know, the Q4 and over the balance of 2022.
Okay. Sounds good.
In terms of cadence.
I hear you. Percentage rents, if I could sneak one more in here. I guess how they performed in the quarter versus your expectations. Saw a big pickup versus prior quarters, and thoughts on that into year-end here.
Yeah, no, it's strong and significantly better than we thought. There's two components to it. First is there are, you know, there's percentage rent on deals that were not adjusted during COVID. They have natural or unnatural breakpoints, depending on how the contract is written, and sales have been high. Just there's a natural component to percentage rent that is better than others. As I think we've talked about in the past, there have been some of our COVID deals effectively traded out fixed rent for a low break point of percentage rent so that we were sharing the recovery, if you will, with the prospective tenant. The recovery has been stronger. Percentage rent on those COVID-adjusted deals were higher.
I think, what do we have? $4.9 million in the quarter. You know, when you think about $5 million, will it be $5 million times four, $20 million for the year? No, it won't. This was you know, it was a really good quarter, and some of those deals in percentage rent will convert back to fixed rent deals. Just by the very nature of the contract, it won't be as strong in that particular number going forward. Hopefully that's helpful. In either case, it's because sales were higher than we thought they would be.
Mm-hmm. No, understood. Certainly appreciate the color on the sales adjustments you made in the leases. Is that gonna be for the next year, two years, or when do they go back to more traditional lease adjustments?
Most of them are done in 2022. I think one or two will make their way into 2023.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Ki Bin Kim of Truist. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks, Don. Good evening. Just going back to your acquisitions. Your basis value per sq ft was pretty low, and I know that was, you know, negotiated during COVID, but even if you kind of mark to market, it's still pretty low basis. I was just curious. I know you could mention IRR, but what's the real estate strategy behind your acquisition?
Hey, Ki Bin Kim. It's Jeff. You know, it's a little different, of course, or maybe a lot different in a couple cases on the group of properties that we bought. You know us, and you know us well, and we're always looking to highest and best use of the real estate, right? So in a couple of those centers, it's relatively simple. Cleaning them up and doing a better job on leasing, including in one case, potentially having a better grocery anchor. There's some densification opportunities at a couple of the properties, for sure.
You know, Grossmont is a little bit of a blank slate that we need to think through and figure out what we're gonna do with all the leases of that property coming up in 2025, and we're in that process. You know, the goal there is to narrow the options by the end of the year and have some clear direction at some point in 2022, but we're not quite there yet. As you know, our view is always buy the best piece of land we can buy in terms of location and population density, incomes, road network, all that good stuff. You know, put on that piece of land what the market demands and generate as much rent as possible. That's why we bought those deals.
They all have those characteristics, and it's a little bit different at each one, but that's what we'll be doing. You are right.
There'll be some good growth. We're really happy with the growth profile and what we've bought in the last year.
You are right, Ki Bin, to look at one of the components we look at, and that's price per acre. Because at the end of the day, what you get in at will help determine what it is that you can make, you know, make work in terms of highest and best use. You know, when you look at something like Grossmont, price per acre is really important to us because we're not sure of exactly which way we can go. Because of the price we got in at, we've got multiple ways to go. That's when you really think about creating value. It really often comes down to the flexibility. Because you always have an idea, and then often something gets in the way of that idea. What are your choices?
I don't wanna say that price per acre is not important. It's really important. Obviously, when you get to highest and best use, you try to figure out what your IRR will be as you go through. That going in price is probably the most important factor to determining what it is that you can do.
Thanks for that color. It is interesting because you're seeing different REITs take different strategies and, you know, it would be dumb to say just low basis is good. Obviously you want to do smart deals and put smart capital to work. It is something I noticed that your basis is just low on a lot of these deals. Anyways, second question on development. You know, what is the likelihood of adding a fourth project to your big three? Does the fact that just the cost to develop is so high, and if you do it, and you start it, then you're basically kind of locking in a higher rent that you need to justify it hold you back from adding a fourth, you know, grand project?
I would say the chance of adding a fourth project are less than 50-50. They're not zero, they're not even 20%, but it's less than 50-50. There's a number of reasons for that. The single biggest reason is everything has to be looked at through a risk-adjusted prism. When you look at the big three, it's funny because we've been doing the big three for so long, everybody looks and says, "Well, okay, what's the next one?" If you worked here, and you tried to figure out where you wanna put capital incrementally to create the most value, time and time again, it will come down to the big three because we're not close to being done.
The notion of adding incremental buildings to Santana Row, Pike & Rose, and Assembly Row just kills the comparison with starting another mixed-use property that will take two decades to do. It always comes down to capital allocation and where your alternatives are and what the smartest thing to do is, and that I think the mistake that some investors and analysts make are underestimating the level of growth and capital that is still yet to come at the big three, some 10, 15, in the case of Santana, 20 years later.
Got it. Thank you for the color.
Our next question is from Paulina Rojas-Schmidt of Green Street. Please proceed with your question.
Good evening. Your tenant collectibility impact includes $5 million in rent abatements. I'm curious, what type of tenants are still receiving these abatements? How much longer do you think they will need it? Three, are these really rent abatements or these are deferrals that you are writing off?
Yeah. I mean, deferrals that you write off are abatements. I mean, like, different parts of the, you know, the deals that Don alluded to where we restructured, and we lowered the rent for a period of time, and then would participate through participating rent based on sales, effectively, you know, whatever diminution from the contractual rent to the new floor rent is considered an abatement. To the extent that you write off previously negotiated deferrals, that's an abatement. You know, really where the abatements are occurring, you know, restaurants, we still have that because a lot of our deals that were restructured like that because of the limits on their capacity constraints during COVID and so forth.
Paulina, I wanna say one thing about that right now. You asked a question, how long do you think they'll need it? That's irrelevant because these are deals that were cut. They were cut in the middle of COVID. They were cut to expire with expiration dates at some point, either in 2021 or in 2022, and a couple, just because of good negotiating, got us to 2023. They actually don't need it any longer, and that's why you see percentage rent the way you see it offsetting that abatement. It was smart that we were able to switch off an abatement for a you know for fixed rent for perc`entage rent because we are getting paid. It's just in a different line than you see it there.
I just wanna make sure you know, these are contracts that were agreed to previously that have sunset dates on them, the end of this year, some in 2022, and a couple in 2023.
Yeah. That number will burn down over the course of 2022.
That's very helpful. I wasn't fully aware of that. Are you able to share the same-property NOI growth implied in your FFO guidance, for next year? Even if it's a wide range, it would be helpful.
Yeah. We're gonna provide that detailed, comprehensive, you know, assumptions in our guidance for next year. Just guessing, it's probably, you know, it's probably in and around 3%, you know, for next year. Our, you know, this year, while we don't think it's relevant, should come in in double digits, low double digits, blended for the year. You know, I think, you know, this year it's somewhat irrelevant. Next year, we'll give you a detailed assumption on same comparable property growth, on the February call.
Thank you very much.
Our next question is from Mike Mueller of JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah. Hi. A couple quick ones here. How much quarterly hotel and parking NOI are you guys getting today? What do you see as a more normalized level for that?
Hang on, Mike. They're scrambling.
Yeah. No.
While you're scrambling, the second one was,
You know, let's go one question at a time. I'm not gonna.
Sure.
Help me out here. It's roughly the run rate right now, parking income is about $2.5 million a quarter. Kinda given that should stay. That's probably at about 70%-75% of a stabilized run rate. Hotels are not gonna contribute this year. You know, so we should see that it's only gravy if they increase. We've seen this, you know, in the last couple months, kind of a real resurgence in our occupancy levels at the three hotels that we have. We're really optimistic that they'll start to contribute in 2022 and certainly in 2023 and 2024 more fully.
Got it. Okay. Then, Dan, when you were talking about prior period rents not recurring, was that a comment when you were talking about 2021 guidance and 2022, you're not booking anything at the same level as to what you saw in 2023, or you just kinda have zero in for prior period on everything going forward?
No, I don't have zero. No, I'll give some guidance on 2022 in February. You know, this year we've been pretty consistently in the $7 -10 million range. Started out high in the Q3 of last year, and it's been about $7 -8 million the last three quarters. I don't think we can sustain that, so that should start coming down just based upon what's outstanding in terms of our bills, accounts receivable. It should, you know, come down pretty meaningfully, certainly in 2022 from the levels we've had this year.
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.
Our next question is from Linda Tsai of Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Hi. I just have one question. Do you have any big picture thoughts on how companies are utilizing office space differently coming out of COVID, you know, based on what you're seeing in your own portfolio and any anecdotes to share?
You know, Linda, all I would say is I just did an interview for the Washington Business Journal around the Choice deal. We are seeing pretty consistently in our places, and again, it's a small sample size, but most people are looking for less space and from where they are to where they're going. I guess I'm not saying anything so eye-opening there, but it's been pretty consistent. Equally consistent is obviously the ones we're talking to are putting a very high value on the amenity-based environment in buildings that are brand new.
When you put those two things together, we're not getting, frankly, the rent pressure, partly because I think it's, you know, the total rent that they're paying is not more than they were paying before because they're taking less space. Interestingly, the biggest component of, you know, where they're going, and almost all have some kind of a hybrid work model associated with it that partly allows them to take less space. They're unyielding with respect to what amenity base means and, frankly, the newness of the building.
Do they also want shorter lease terms too?
No. In no cases, frankly.
Thank you.
Just remember, Linda, you know, you're not talking to a guy with a lot of office knowledge throughout the country. We're talking about really San Jose, California, here outside of Washington, D.C., and outside of Boston, and that's it.
Great. Thanks.
Our next question is from Tammi Fique of Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Thank you. Good evening. I guess I was wondering in terms of the acquisitions in the pipeline, I'm just wondering if you could talk about, you know, where you are looking to expand geographically going forward, particularly given the recent acquisitions in Phoenix. Then maybe as a follow-up, do you think that there is an advantage to geographic portfolio concentrations in your business, or given that you have been pretty concentrated, historically? Thank you.
Yeah. Let me try and start with the end of your question first, Tammy. And if I don't get all of it, tell me what I missed. You know, look, we've said a number of times we really like the markets that we're in, and we see great benefit from having a concentration in each of those markets. We think that helps us see more deals on the acquisition side of our business going forward, and it certainly puts us in a much better position when we're talking to tenants. Every one of our leasing people would tell you that. You know, being concentrated in a market is important.
Certainly, you know, now that we're in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area, we're gonna wanna grow in greater, in greater Phoenix and get that same concentration that we have in our other target markets. Expect to see that. I think we've mentioned on some prior calls that we are looking at a couple of new markets. You know, doing our research, making sure we're identifying where in those markets we wanna be, and we're working on deals in those markets. Whether they happen or not, I don't know. It's too soon to say.
You know, don't be surprised if we pick another couple of markets to be in that share the, you know, the characteristics of the markets we're already in, which is barriers to entry and good education and income and population density levels and, you know, properties where we think over time we can grow the income stream and add value. That's what we do.
You know, Tammi, I just want to add something to what Jeff said, which I couldn't agree with more all the way through. You really cannot underestimate that when you're a player in a market, how prospective sellers or people that are not even sellers but might be sellers view you, how they'll come to you, how you'll see things that you wouldn't see. It's so different than just owning one or two properties in a you know, very wide place because obviously our business, this business is local. The best example we have that just happened is effectively what's going on in Phoenix. I mean, we are talking
The inbound questions along with our own work in Phoenix has quadrupled from what it would have been when if we had just bought, you know, one or two very small properties. By owning Camelback Colonnade, we're a player. It's well known. And what you can't underestimate how that can lead to, you know, more work. Certainly on the retailer side and on the operational side, you get your obvious efficiencies and disproportionate level of play. We've seen that in Washington, D.C., in, you know, suburban Maryland forever. We're now starting to see it in Northern Virginia because we've made such a play there. There's no doubt in my mind that concentration is a really big plus in this business, and no more so than on the acquisition side.
Great. Thank you for that, perspective. I guess just following up on the collections question, just to be sure I'm clear, you expect the majority of those tenants to start paying full rent again and not get resolved through move-outs. Is that the right way to think about it?
Could you repeat that again? Yeah, you fluttered in and out.
Oh, sorry about that. I was just saying on the collections question, I just wanted to be sure I was clear, that you expect the majority of the tenants in that 4%-4% number to start paying full rent again and not get resolved through move-outs. Is that correct?
I think some will be resolved. I think some will be kicked out. Right? We're down to the last 3-4% of tenants, you know, we are obviously have taken a much stronger position with them. We are not in COVID as an economy anywhere near the extent we were, obviously. To the extent those businesses can't survive in the existing business and going forward, maybe they don't belong here. We're taking a harder line on that side. With respect to the balance, we certainly expect to get paid and will. I'm not. I don't. You know, the difference between 96 and 99, 3%, I don't know whether it's half and half of those choices or two thirds and one third, but it's something like that.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Yep.
Our next question is from Katy McConnell of Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Are we going around again, Katy?
Hey, Tom.
Oh, Michael.
It's Mike Gorman. Why are you laughing?
We started with Katy McConnell, we ended with Katy McConnell, but it's not Katy McConnell. I thought we were going around all-
No.
I thought we were going around the circle again, but no sir. What can I do for you?
Well, I'm not gonna ask you for drivers of 2023 and 2024 guidance, don't worry about that. You did give us 2021 and 2022, so I really appreciate that you guys came around and provided that to the investment community, so thank you. I wanted to just ask two questions.
Well, thank you.
One, just one on Somerville. You know, your Mayor Joe has put out some revised and updated plans for what he wants to see at Assembly. I guess, how close could we be to that next phase and incorporating the power center into sort of a larger project? You know, I know you talked about the big three, you know, the gifts that keep on giving. It feels like this is closer now, but I wanted to sort of get your sense of where things stand.
Yeah, you know, I don't think that the power center conversion to Assembly Row 9.0 or whatever it would be at that point is imminent, so I don't want you to think about it that way. It is obvious when you sit and you think about the long-term highest and best use of any piece of property given what's happened at Assembly Row, that eventually, one day, there should be intensification on the power center site. It is years and years away. I don't. Heck, you won't pay me for 23, for Pete's sake. Never mind whenever that's gonna happen at that asset. Forgetting about that, look at the rest of Assembly Row.
Look at the space between Partners HealthCare and our existing property and what happens to that. We are looking very hard at life sciences there, as you can imagine. To the extent we can get the economics to make some sense and obviously construction costs are the biggest hurdle in that. But given what's happened to the adjacent properties, it's really clear to us that the Assembly site in Somerville is gonna be a life sciences site at some point. Whether it's, you know, just the adjacencies or whether it includes us will depend on whether we can make the numbers work or not. But that is far more imminent certainly than the power center site.
Okay. Just thinking about sort of your enthusiasm, I don't wanna curb your enthusiasm at all, but I guess how do you sort of sit back? It's been a pretty strange two years, and so how are you able to distinguish that all the things that are happening now are not just sort of a little bit of a catch up from just being, you know
Yeah
... out of the market for a while and, you know, not taking what's happening right now and all the leasing activity and everyone's excited and we're getting back out and we're having meals and dinners and bar mitzvahs and weddings. How do you not take it to not get ahead of yourself in terms of where it goes?
No, I love that question, man, because you're, you know, you're basically talking to a very conservative guy in terms of those. I worry about everything going forward all the time. In this case, though, the thing that gives me confidence, and it's a lot of confidence, is I am sure that what we own and where it is is really valuable. It's kinda like the office side. If we may be over-officed in this country now, right? We talk about being over-retailed forever, we may be over-officed. Federal Realty isn't because where we have that office and what is being built in terms of that office, if there's any office at all, it's going to be. That demand is going to be at places like this that we own.
I feel the same way on the retail. Where you hear confidence from me, you don't hear confidence that everything's great in the world, is gonna stay great in the world. I just know on a relative basis, whatever's happening, we've got the right product.
Yeah.
That's where my confidence comes from.
Yeah, that makes sense. Perfect. All right. Well, thanks for the time, and speak to you next week.
Thanks, Mike. Talk to you soon.
We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Ennes for closing remarks.
Thanks for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with those attending NAREIT next week. Have a good evening.
Good day.
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.