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UBS Global Media & Communications Conference

Dec 5, 2023

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Well, great. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us. I'm Robin Farley, the leisure and also sports tech analyst at UBS. With us today is Sportradar. Sportradar is a B2B provider in the online sports betting space. They provide sports data, analytics, live odds, trading platforms, for online sports books in the U.S. and globally, in addition to, sports leagues and media companies. With us today is Gerard Griffin, a 20-year veteran, in finance, most recently at Zynga, and now about seven months here at Sportradar. I'm gonna adjust this a little bit. Recently, Sportradar has undertaken a cost-cutting initiative, and they've given an upbeat outlook for, 20% revenue and EBITDA growth next year, and we'll kind of unpack all of that here today in our fireside.

Then we'll have time for Q&A. I think there are iPads at everyone's seat if you want to send questions in, and I guess those questions will show up on the screen. Gerard, thanks for joining us this morning.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Thank you for having me.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

So, maybe to start with, in the last year, Sportradar has won the exclusive rights to the NBA. You've also recently won the rights to be the provider for ATP, the governing body for tennis, and I think in some of these cases, you weren't necessarily the highest bidder to get those rights, so, but you still won those rights. So I guess, can you tell us what is it that Sportradar is doing that's helped you to get these?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

I think, part of it is, you know, the company's been around over 20 years in the space and has built deep relationships, not only with its client base, but with the sports federations and, you know, within the industry. And what we've seen is, you know, the economics are still the same. The federations, they want funding, so they are looking for money. But more importantly, they're looking to try and drive, you know, stronger fan engagement and really look at how the convergence of technology and data can drive that, in addition to driving, obviously, the entertainment side of the sport and then the betting side of the sport. So they're all connected. If you think about it from an immersion point of view, if you're a sports fan, you may not bet, but there's a probability you do.

But the more you can do to deepen your engagement, the connection to that sport is important to the federations. And so when we were talking with the NBA and we're talking with the ATP, it was like: Okay, guys, we know you got a balance sheet, but how can we bring the partnership to life and make it a deeper partnership? And with the NBA, it's still mainly a fixed contract, but with that deal, there's a lot of commitments from both sides to invest in product together. With the ATP, it's a variable contract, and it's got a variety of elements. It was a more creative contract from the point of view of the financials, but it's still at underpinning is: How can we work together to truly unlock this fan engagement?

Because they're not necessarily interested in the sports betting per se and so on. They're looking at the overall ecosystem and how to drive that engagement. And we believe that sports federations looking forward and, you know, from conversations we've had with others, they're looking for that. They're looking for, you know, it can't always be just up and to the right in terms of the economics. At some point, it's got to be a give and take.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Great. Kind of looking at recent results, you came in lower than revenue guide because of FX and some sport outcomes that kind of accounted for that, but you beat and raised on the EBITDA side.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

So, can you kind of tell us a little bit about what's been bringing EBITDA higher than guidance, especially when FX and sport outcomes, you know, kind of went against you?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Well, even you know, when the company set its plan at the start of the year, there was a focus on how do we be smarter in how we operate. So throughout the year, even when I got there, the company had very much a focus on managing run rates and looking to develop you know, contingency plans around. It wasn't really about revenue risk, it was more about we want to invest in more. Well, it can't be just continually, you're just adding more on top of it. It's just that's not a sustainable operating model. So from that perspective, I brought a bit more of that to bear. You've heard me say operating leverage many times, and I'll continue to say that.

The other aspects were the FX was a pesky euro, being stronger than the good old greenback, but that actually helped on the flow-through as well, because even though it hurt the vanity of the revenue, it also didn't impact as much EBITDA, so there was a balancing act there. We also saw, which was helpful, a better mix in certain parts of our revenue schema going into the end of the year. That helped us to mitigate some of the impact from the impact of MTS, in particular in Q3 and into Q4.

So it was a mixture of mix, FX not being as full of an impact for the full year in terms of the EBITDA, and quite frankly, the actions we took in the last month or so, where, you know, as a company, we're looking to continually challenge every aspect of the business. We know we can grow revenues. We've demonstrated that. What we have to start doing is demonstrating that we can deliver the operating leverage and the margin expansion. This time around, it was to protect the bottom, but as we go into, you know, 2024 and 2025, it's to expand the margins.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Great. And then on that 2024 outlook, you've guided to EBITDA growth, I think revenue and EBITDA growth of at least 20%. So can you kind of break down the main drivers of that? I mean, there are some of it may be the NBA contract, new state and territory launches, organic growth, kind of what are the building blocks?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah, I would say, the first thing that's important to understand is that given the recurring nature of a revenue base, we start the year looking at, a certain level of growth, just through contractual increases and just general, rate increases that we can deliver, from our clients. And some of that tackling, you go in with, a portfolio of packages that may look similar to last year, but you add a few things, so you're able to reposition those packages for growth. So, you know, if you think about, you know, industry growth in the, let's call it 10%-15%, that's sort of table stakes for us as we think about, you know, trying to drive, growth in any given year. The next major factor is, and I'll put it in order, is ATP and then NBA.

Both those deals, yes, they have a major pressure point on our sports rights next year, but they're obviously contributing, individually and as part of an ability to drive premium pricing and bundling deals, incremental revenues that is compelling. The final aspect, I would say, is just general upsell and packaging that we're doing across the portfolio. Remember, 80% of our business is international, actually more than 80%. The portfolio of content we have coming out of this year into next year, we believe can sustain meaningful growth over the coming years, and it's gonna help us be a little bit more aggressive on pricing across the portfolio. On the other side, yes, there's some geographic growth in terms of state openings, but that's a smaller element of it.

The state openings we expect next year are fairly small from a U.S. perspective, and we haven't built in any major assumption for, you know, opening up Brazil, for instance, or any other major countries internationally.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay, great. Let's talk a little bit about U.S. betting trends, compared to Europe. I'm specifically thinking here about in-play betting, which is, I've seen different stats, but 75, maybe even higher, as a percent of total in Europe, whereas it's more pre-match betting in the U.S., maybe closer to 25%. So can you talk about how that's changed in the last year in terms of U.S. betting trends and the economics to Sportradar of that kind of difference.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah. For, for us, if you think about internationally, it is in that 75%-80% range. In-play is important because the number of data points and the opportunities to bet is obviously a lot more. And, you know, whether it's soccer, football, any sport, it gives us more opportunities. It gives the betting operator, it gives the actually the broadcaster, it gives everyone more opportunity to engage with the fan. In terms of the U.S., it's... You know, I talk about international as advanced markets because I don't want to use the word mature, 'cause it's not that they're mature, it's just they're more advanced in terms of the adoption and engagement. Here in the U.S., it's sort of in that sort of 30%-35%.

It's hard to get an exact number from our clients, but we believe it's in that level. To get that up is important to not just us, it's important to the betting operators, it's important to the federations, because the in-game is gonna stimulate, just like entertainment, it's gonna stimulate more engagement from fans. And I'm a football fan, I'm a golfing fan, but from a football perspective, I do not gamble. It's against our policy, and I don't gamble anyway. But you know, having the ability to chat to people around you about what's gonna happen next, is Saka going left, is he going right? Is Man City gonna score the next goal to tie? The Spurs, are they gonna win? It's interesting.

Getting that in will give the betting operators absolutely a lot more addressable opportunities to create revenue and create margin. Right now, they're happy with the scheme that they have with parlay bets and pre-bet, 'cause from a margin perspective, on paper, it's better. But I think over time, consumers are going to look to see the opportunity to engage, just like they see their cousins across the water. What we're gonna do to drive it is product enhancements, delivering, you know, better opportunities to sports operators to engage differently with their customers. The sports, like the NBA, you know, the NBA, the NHL, MLB, they think the same way. They want that to happen, 'cause just to my earlier point, they want the engagement.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

There will be some technical challenges with, you know, video latency, et cetera. But I think over time... You know, it's not to say that the U.S. is gonna evolve to be exactly like the U.K., you know, they're divided by a common language, but I do believe, we're heading that way. And there's, you know, a lot of assumptions right now in the U.S. market that the existing incumbents, that's gonna be it. It's gonna be all of this parlay. That's the way it's gonna be. I think there's an old saying, "All castles fall." If you try and build your business based on protection as opposed to evolving to where the consumer wants to go, it's gonna be challenging.

We believe, not through any confrontation, we just believe it's gonna happen, and we're gonna do our best to give our clients the tools to drive that.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

But your outlook for 2024 doesn't necessarily count on that.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

No, we think it's a longer-term play.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

It's like state openings and in-play, it's gonna take time.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

But again, we've been here since, you know, 2014. We're patient.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Right.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

In the meantime, I keep saying it, and people listen, the international business is still the, you know, it's over, well over 80% of the business, and it's driving very nice profitability. So for us, we love the U.S., but it's incremental to us.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Great. So you've been EBITDA positive for a while, and profitable in the U.S. for over a year. I think it might be five quarters at this point.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Thank you, Katie, my Head of Finance.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

So thinking about capital allocation at this point, with your liquidity and the fact that you're cash flow positive, is there a potential for capital return to shareholders now that you're generating more cash, or should we be thinking about potential industry consolidation or both?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah, we're cash flow positive. We're obviously generating EBITDA. We've got a clean balance sheet, so that's all great. And our liquidity is strong. I am looking at ways to potentially give some back. I don't think we're doing dividends. I think I'm more looking at, you know, areas like a buyback. That said, you know, we wanna make sure we have the optionality to look at acquisitions if they make sense for the company. But we're not in a buying frenzy. I think we'll. When I look at the space, if you look at the existing incumbents, we're not sitting on our laurels. There's a lot of growth ahead of us, and we wanna focus on that organically.

If we see opportunities to bring talent or technology into the company, we'll look at it. But right now, I don't have anything to say definitively what we're gonna do from a capital allocation point of view, other than it's obvious to us, given where the stock price is, there's room to invest there, mainly because we think we're undervalued. And, you know, that's that will ultimately be proven our true fundamentals. Just to be clear, we need to drive stronger fundamentals in terms of flow-through. But we also do believe there's opportunities, you know, from an acquisition point of view. But, you know, again, we're well positioned for that if the right things turn up.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

And then can you talk a little bit about the sort of state of industry consolidation and what might make sense in terms of what we could see you do, or, you know, is it technologies that you would tuck in? Or just kind of help us out.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah. It's we look at it a few different ways. I think from anything that can enhance our tech capability, whether it's, you know, deep into AI or video or other areas that can help enhance or accelerate some of the product development we're doing, that's interesting. I think from, you know, from a geographic expansion, if we can find anything in that area or into what I would call adjacent business models. Right now, you know, over 80% of our business is sports betting. The rest of it is into advertising, it's into media services and sports solutions and integrity.

So while the catalyst of our growth and the strongest driver of our profitability is the betting side of our business, if we can find complementary areas to enhance that, that could be interesting. But the key thing to say is, you know, we're obviously pivotal, and we believe we're a trusted partner within this space. We're at scale. We believe there's a lot of growth ahead of us. You know, when this company went public, it said its long-term target was 20-20% plus revenue growth and bring its EBITDA margins long term to 25-30%. We're delivering 20% plus revenue growth. We now need to continue the journey to keep that going, but also drive the margin.

So if we can find acquisitions that can enhance us from a strategic point of view, but can also contribute to accretion, then, then it's worth having a conversation. It's the same story with investment in sports rights. You know, we've said we have the portfolio we need, but if there's something out there that can enhance that, fine, but it has to have the right economics.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah. Looking at global sports rights opportunities potentially coming up, because we talked about you're kind of recently getting the NBA and the ATP. Can you talk about what other sports rights may be coming up, or where there may be opportunity for you to acquire more in the portfolio? Obviously, you know, there'll be others bidding on it, but.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah, no, there's always various rights popping up, in particular in the football side of things, whether it's, it could be the EPL in a few years' time, but there's also other divisions and subdivisions within the world. The way we think about it is, we're not fixated on any one right. The portfolio of rights we have today, we believe, can drive the growth we wanna deliver over the coming years. And so if you think about, you know, top sport in the world, betting is football, soccer, real football. Next, it's tennis. Sorry. Yeah, tennis. No, yeah, tennis, then it's basketball, then it's table tennis, and then it's American football. I may have got one of those wrong, but the top four are the ones-

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Table tennis-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Thank you.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

is ahead of American football?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yes.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Wow!

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

That's just in terms of it's a global sport. So from our point of view, we track and we operate in over 70 sports. But if you think about critical mass, you need to be where, you know, the critical fan base is and the opportunity. So if there's anything that can help enhance our portfolio, because we have a deep portfolio in each of those sports I just mentioned, then we look at it. If it's a peripheral sport, then it's more about does it help from a packaging point of view? Does it fill a gap in how we look at building bundles for our clients?

The one thing I learned when I joined this, the Sportradar is, you know, sports betting is 24/7, and there's times where people are betting on a football game in Kazakhstan. Next thing, it's a table tennis game in Portugal. It's bizarre to me because, you know, I'm asleep at the time some of this is going on, but that's the reality of the industry we live in. And it's the reality of why, you know, Carsten's built this company that's got a very deep experience in the space and a very deep investment in the content. But the next deal has to hit a return on investment. You know, there were some large deals we walked away from, mainly because they just weren't driving what I said earlier.

Yes, they would have given us the revenue vanity in terms of incremental revenue, but they weren't gonna deliver the flow-through, and, you know, you need to deliver both.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

I think Major League Baseball. I don't know when that expires, but I think the bidding might be in 2024.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yep.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Can you talk about kind of thoughts about MLB? And I think that's a shared contract now, and English Premier League would also potentially be a bid in 2024. And just kind of how big are those potential opportunities?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah. Well, the MLB is part of the family today, and we've got a very positive and strong relationship with the MLB, and, you know, our ambition is to continue that. We've got one year left on the existing relationship, but our aim is to continue that and re-up. On the football front. You know, today, the Premier League announced the media rights have been locked in again with Sky and TNT as the two main footholds. The interesting thing about that deal, which plays to some of the questions we get from investors about sports rights inflation.

While the deal talks about it being overall, an increase of about 4% they expect to get per annum, the level of rights that they actually give over to the broadcast is, makes it per game an actual, a better deal long term for media. That's not to say it'll be the same for the data deal, which would be the next part of, the negotiation with the Premier League, but that I would expect will kick off, next year. We ambition that it... The two deals will be in parallel, but it's- I think it's 2024, 2025, when the existing deal ends, and they'll be looking for either the existing partner or a new partner going forward.

What I would say, it would not surprise me that they, the Premier League, given the advanced nature of the organization, is looking at this the same way that an ATP or an NBA looks at it. What, in addition to a big bag of money, am I going to get to drive fan engagement? And, they're very progressive in how they think about things. And so again, if the economics work, of course, we'll look to participate. But if we don't, there's the Bundesliga, there's a lot of other football that we have that, you know, engages with our, our. It's engaging for our clients, but more important, it's engaging for football fans and, you know, driving the business.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

The NBA, you had a shared contract between you and another sports data provider, and then they went exclusive with you. Do you have a thought on whether Major League Baseball is currently using two right now, will also try to go exclusive with one, or do you expect them to kind of continue to work with one?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

I'd rather. I think from our point of view, we believe a relationship is important, and we've got a very positive one right now. Whether it goes exclusive or non-exclusive, you know, it's more about what ultimately are the goals of the MLB and Sportradar, and can we both achieve what we want to achieve from the relationship? Yeah, we're open to different ways of operating. You know, if you think about the ATP deal versus the NBA deal, there's an exclusivity thing. One was more of a fixed deal with a lot of commitment to investment in products and evolution going forward. The other one was more of a variable hybrid deal where, you know, there's a...

It's a little bit more complicated in terms of the overall, commercial side, but it, it drives the same ambition of partnering strong with each other to, to drive fan engagement, ultimately driving it from a media point of view, but also from a sports betting point of view. So the conversations, whether it's with, with the MLB or any partner going forward, will be: Well, what can we do together? And then can we, can we get the economics to work, that it's not literally just one-sided from a, you know, from a, a commitment point of view? So long-winded way of saying, we don't, we're not fixated on whether it's exclusive or non-exclusive. It's can we drive value for, for our partner and vice versa.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay, great. I guess, just, also circling back on the NBA contract. We talked earlier about how you've been cash flow positive in the US-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

... now for five quarters. You went exclusive with the NBA. The sports rights cost is a little higher as a result of that. Can you talk about what that means for the pace of EBITDA growth in the U.S.? And is that higher sports rights cost offset by this cost-cutting initiative you mentioned that you're sort of doing here in late 2024, or I'm sorry, late 2023, but would be a full year in 2024, and kind of how that impacts the pace of EBITDA?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah, I think the US is gonna be pressured in Q4 specifically, and actually the rest of world to a certain extent, because the NBA deal is a global deal. Just to remind people, the NBA deal is a global deal. You know, about 40% of it is international from a revenue point of view. But if you look forward into 2024, and you mentioned it, mainly due to making sure we're very much focused on the middle of the P&L and driving, streamlining and being more efficient, but also given the growth we expect from the US off the NBA deal, plus the ATP deal and other things, the US we expect will grow its EBITDA and its margins in 2024.

So it's a microcosm of the bigger company scenario in the sense that it takes the pressure in Q4. Given the size of the business, it'll probably be negative EBITDA in Q4, but positive for the full year in 2023, and then it'll advance in 2024 to be positive both top and bottom. So it's a transition. If there wasn't the opportunity to drive revenues, then it'd be a very sad situation, but that's not the case. There is the opportunity to drive revenues, and it's sort of like if you think about what we said about the total company, it's the same dynamic.

Yes, the step up in sports rights for ATP and NBA could be 4-5 points of pressure, but the flip side is a company that's managing the rest of its P&L can offset that, and that's what we're planning to do in 2024, and then into 2025 and 2026, look to have all those lines be, you know, contributors to operating leverage and margin expansion.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Great. I still have another question or two, but I-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yeah, shoot.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Since we're in less than 10 minutes, I wonder if we can open it up if folks have questions and they wanna shoot it in on the iPads that are out there. So we'll give folks a moment. I'm assuming it'll show up on this screen here.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Yes, I do support Arsenal Football Club.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

No, I don't think Spurs are gonna win the Premier League.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah, the softball question is coming in. So, I don't know if that'll show up on here, but so I'm gonna go ahead and ask another question, since I'm not seeing anything on here, but I don't know if that's just something. No, I think it should show up.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Never trust technology-

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

I don't know if it-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Don't vote for children and animals.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Do we need an iPad up here to see questions that people have sent in, or would it show on, on the screen? People can submit via the app, and then they would show up on your iPad. On my iPad. Okay. All right. So there's a QR code where you can download the app. Oh, good. There we are. Or we can do it the old-fashioned way. People can also just do that. Okay.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

The app costs you $5 a download, but UBS and Credit Suisse do the old merger system.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

That's right. We're gonna start buying sports rights as well to make the app more, more user-friendly. So we do, we do have one, so I'm glad. And, and folks, so if you can scan the QR code and send in others. So you, you mentioned the long-term, 30% EBITDA margin target. Can you talk about what's the time frame to get there, and then also kind of guideposts between now and then, what, what gets you to that 30% and when, basically?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

So I'm not going to give a specific here because we, you know, we talked back in the IPO as long term. But let me. The company's near- to medium-term is get to 25%. So we're coming out of this year somewhere at the 18%-19% based on the revised guidance. We're gonna be at a minimum, flat next year. But when you unpack next year and you think about 4-5 points pressure from sports rights, which should stabilize and not be similar pressure going into 2025, 2026, 2027, assuming no other major step-ups, which we don't expect any.

And you have delivered the the operating leverage off the rest of the P&L with an ambition to have those lines also going into the out years, growing at less than the revenue rate, which, you know, up until now has been in the 20s. And so our ambition is to continue to be in that sort of level of revenue growth. That will mathematically help. Gravity will deliver flow-through. You know, whether it's 2, 3 points, 4 points in the next 2, 3 years will depend on revenue growth and how much we are managing it, the middle. But the ambition of the company is, and we've spent a lot of time on that this year, is we don't want to go back to, you know, 30+% growth people costs. That's not necessary.

There's a lot of reasons for it, and those reasons don't exist today. And, you know, we're very much focused on driving that operating leverage because the one thing we've proven as a company, and history has shown, that we can grow revenues. And, you know, the portfolio of content to repeat, if we were to say, hypothetically, take on another major franchise into that portfolio, it would have to deliver the right economics to be accretive and not just be, "Okay, trust us, guys, we had another ten years." So when I look at growth, ATP and NBA are great examples. Those contracts in their second half are all delivering at our long-term EBITDA objectives, if not higher, just because of the nature of the contracts, because with fixed amortization, revenue growing.

When I keep joking, when either Katie or Kristen or Jim, our CFO, they get all the fun times because the margins are gonna be stronger. If we're delivering that, which is on... It's not just on paper, it's in the long-range plan. The commitment is there, the revenues are there. Obviously, the revenue can be variable, the commitment's already locked in. So it's all about managing people costs and all other operating spend. All other operating spend we've kept in the mid-single digits. So let's continue to do that because that seems to work or lower. And if we can keep the people costs in more of a 10%-15% as opposed to 33%, that itself, if you model it out 2-3 years, will tell you the answer to the story.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Great. Now, that's a super helpful walking through that. And then if there is a question that somebody just wants to raise a hand and ask, that's fine, too. I won't make you download an app.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

It did say Arsenal are going to win the Champions League.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Right.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

That will not impact our MTS business because we're not favorites.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah. Go ahead, Andrew.

Speaker 3

Can you remind us what % of revenue is variable versus on a subscription-type product and how that evolves over the next couple of years?

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

The main area of variability, you know, macro-wise, is the U.S., because they're rev share contracts, and they're not as variable as elsewhere. The only other major, I'd say, call-out variability is MTS, which is internationally. But if you put it all together, you're talking somewhere between 20 and 25% is probably the mix. Sort of what you classically call rev share versus more fixed subscription contracts. Yeah, that's the... And, you know, the U.S. will evolve. Our ambition is to make, you know, obviously, to grow the business.

But I would say right now, and if I even if I think about 2024 growth, somebody asked me about deceleration in rest of world, that's not the case, just because of the nature of the business with ATP and NBA. So I think that makes... You know, in the short term, I think we are growing the U.S. business. On a percentage basis, it's gonna look bigger than rest of world, but on an macro basis, it's not obviously, given the scale of international. But I think that 75-25 is probably about where it'll land, looking at Kristen, and she's saying, "Yeah," or she'll tell me later, "No.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

But isn't that 75, if that includes soccer, where it's not revenue sharing, but you were impacted by sport outcomes, so-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

That was MTS.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Oh, the MTS part of the business.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

That's a smaller part of the business-

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

but it was a material swing for that business.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

You know, and the good news, you know, it, it carried into October. We, we said that already that, you know, the favorites continued to win. And then I have to—it, it's hard for me as a, a football fan and an Arsenal fan, to sit watching my game and going: Oh, we just won again. That'll probably—Warren, who's my head of product, will probably be calling me up and saying, "That one didn't help." But we have, we have seen it. It has swung around, so we have seen the, the betting operators being a little bit happier.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Right.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Which is good, because if they're happy, we're happy on the MTS. We're happy with-

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yes.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

The MTS is a growing, but still small part of our overall business. But yeah, that's variable.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay, great, and that's helpful. Do we have another one in the audience tonight? If not, I'm gonna slip my last one in here for our, our, 3 minutes. I know you talked about new markets not being in your 2024 guidance, right, and just the 20% growth just coming from existing. But can you talk about the opportunity in Brazil? I don't know if you'd be willing to put any numbers on it, or what-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

No, I think it's... There's a large opportunity there, but like everything Brazilian, and my wife's Portuguese, so I can actually say this even though she's not Brazilian, but same, same, same people.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Cultural.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

The government's trying to open up and regulate, so it's TBD how long it will take them to get to a point where it'll be meaningful. There's a lot of betting right now that's offshore, and their ambition, obviously, is to bring it onshore, so it's regulated and they can participate. But we believe it's a very large opportunity. We have invested in content. There's content in our portfolio today that's relevant for that market, given the prevalence of football, things like CONMEBOL. So we're very much focused on it as an opportunity, but we're gonna have to wait and see how long it will take the regulatory side of the industry to get to a point where it's really real, as opposed to-

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Mm-hmm

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

... It's just a big opportunity. But it could be really meaningful. You're talking, I don't know, you know, $5 billion in GGR plus. But again, until they get the, you know, the regulations in place, it's gonna be TBD.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Do you think that happens in the next 12 months, or is that too-

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

If you've ever done business in Brazil,

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

I haven't.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

It can take some time. The ambition is for them. They're looking to try and do it in the next year, but we're... As I say, we're not betting on that in terms of what I've said already about our forecast for next year.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Okay.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Sometimes with these markets, you gotta be patient. We were patient with the US, we still are. There's a lot of states, like, everybody could have a bet when's California gonna turn around the game, but it's obviously not for a few years. But we believe over time it will regulate, and it'll be an opportunity to work with the tribes and others. Brazil's the same way. There's a lot of geos in the world right now that I think over time, whether it's Africa, whether it's the Middle East, where there's a lot of interest in regulation and regulatory services. So, you know, there's different pockets, but you have to be patient for these things to evolve.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

Yeah. Great. Maybe just as a last question, since you're in the business of analyzing probability, I was gonna ask you about the chance of Man City beating Arsenal, but I don't know. From your comments, maybe the numbers, you're not gonna be a numbers man for that one.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Community, community Channel 1-0 to the Arsenal. First game of the season, 1-0 to the Arsenal. We, we do have to go to Man City. That could be different, but we'll see.

Robin Farley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Leisure, UBS

There we go. Okay, so that's your big call. All right. Well, great. Thank you very much for joining us this morning, and thanks, everybody.

Gerard Griffin
CFO, Sportradar Group

Thank you.

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