UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)
NASDAQ: UMBF · Real-Time Price · USD
124.13
+1.91 (1.56%)
Apr 27, 2026, 1:52 PM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 26, 2022

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for attending today's UMB Financial third quarter 2022 results conference call. My name is Forum, and I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will remain muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to pass the call over to our host, Kay Gregory, UMB Investor Relations.

Kay Gregory
SVP and Director of Investor Relations, UMB Financial Corporation

Good morning and welcome to our third quarter call. Mariner Kemper, President and CEO, and Ram Shankar, CFO, will share a few comments about our results. Jim Rine, CEO of UMB Bank, and Tom Terry, Chief Credit Officer, will also be available for the question and answer session. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. These risks are included in our SEC filings and are summarized on slide 43 of our presentation. Actual results may differ from those set forth in forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. We undertake no obligation to update them except to the extent required by securities laws. All earnings per share metrics discussed on this call are on a diluted share basis. Our presentation materials and press release are available online at investorrelations.umb.com.

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mariner Kemper.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Thank you, Kay and thanks everyone for joining us today. Yesterday afternoon, we reported our third quarter results reflecting positive momentum across our business lines. Highlights include robust loan growth coupled with strong asset quality and solid core revenue growth. Net income for the third quarter was $88 million or $1.81 per share. Operating pre-tax, pre-provision income was $131.2 million or $2.70 per share. Net interest income increased 3.9% sequentially, driven by a nearly $1 billion increase in average loans, positive asset mix, and the impact of rising rates. This was partially negated by increased deposit costs, largely driven by a transition from DDAs to rate-varying accounts, which is typical in an interest rate cycle such as the one we're seeing today.

The timing of deposit initiatives to attract new to bank customers in each of our business lines, the availability of attractive short tenor investment options, and the impact of clients reacting to typical market pressures in a rising rate environment, particularly on our rate-sensitive institutional businesses. This is consistent with what we're seeing from other trusts and custody banks like ourselves. Our cycle to date data on interest-bearing deposits has been 46% and 27% on total deposits. As we've noted in the past, our business profile and funding mix is uniquely skewed in favor of our commercial and institutional sources. These sources experience different pace and timing than many of our peers in the repricing environment. Our fee businesses performed well, driving non-interest income growth, excluding the impact of the non-recurring gain from the sale of Visa Class B shares in the second quarter.

Additional drivers are included in our slides, and Ram will share more details shortly. Excluding contributions from PPP and the market-related impacts from gains and losses on investment securities, we've generated operating leverage of 4% year to date. This continues to be the focus for us, and we expect to generate positive operating leverage for the full year. Pipelines and sales activity continue to be strong across the company, and I'll share a few highlights from the various businesses. In private wealth, our team has surpassed full year 2021 sales, bringing it to $874 million in new assets year to date. Our institutional banking teams are continuing to perform well. Year to date, new business volumes have increased 16% in corporate trust and escrow services and 35% in specialty trust.

Public finances closed 110 deals so far in 2022, on track to exceed 2021 levels. Fund services and institutional custody assets under administration levels have been impacted by equity market valuations in 2022, and AUA levels now stand at $352 billion. However, the teams continue to bring in new clients, including more than 200 new custody accounts year to date. The fund services contribution to our trust income has increased 6.2% year-over-year. In healthcare services, we rank among the top 10 HSA providers in the U.S. We expect the acquisition of the Old National Bancorp's HSA business to close in mid-November. This acquisition will bolster our position with an additional $400 million in inexpensive deposits and approximately $100 million in investment assets.

Moving to lending, the drivers behind our nearly 22% linked quarter annualized growth in average balances this quarter are on slide 24. Total top-line loan production, as shown on slide 25, remains strong at $1.3 billion for the quarter. Payoffs and paydown represent 4.7% of loans rebounding from the low levels second quarter. Commercial real estate and construction loans posted 20% annualized growth in the third quarter. While payoffs will fluctuate from quarter to quarter, we expect we will see them eventually begin to slow due to general slowdown as anticipated in the rising rate environment. We saw continued outperformance in C&I with average balances increasing 27% on a linked quarter annualized basis and making up more than half of this quarter's total growth.

Industrial production continues to be strong, and we're seeing a good mix of new customer acquisition and increased borrowings from existing commercial relationships. Line increases are moving closer to pre-pandemic levels, and general customers' comments indicate that draws are largely related to depleting stimulus liquidity, higher inventories, and higher prices. Average residential mortgage balances have increased 23% over the third quarter of last year, despite the impacts of raising rates. Our down payment assistance program designed to support first-time home buyers in underserved markets has had more than 1,000 new applications resulting in $1.6 million in assistance year to date. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we see opportunity in our various verticals across the footprint, and we expect continued strong growth to round out the year.

On the other side of the balance sheet, average total deposits for the quarter decreased 5.7% compared to the second quarter, driven primarily by DDA outflows from elevated second quarter levels, primarily in our institutional businesses. Compared to the third quarter of 2021, our DDA balances increased 8.7%, led by corporate trust, commercial, and investor solution verticals. Because of the often project-based orientation of our corporate trust businesses, we can just as easily see spikes in DDA as we have seen a decline this past quarter. DDA balances represent 42% of average deposits, compared to 45% in the second quarter and 39% in the third quarter of last year. We continue to focus on deposit gathering, including deposit initiatives I mentioned, as well as engaging with our current customers.

One area of growth we're excited about is our business banking and practice finance vertical, which has seen exceptional deposit growth over the past two years. We continue to invest in this business to drive future growth on both sides of the balance sheet. While we've seen cycle to date data on our interest-bearing deposits of approximately 46%, I think the metric alone gives an incomplete view as it ignores the benefit of DDA balances which have a zero beta, and the impact of our borrowing levels, which have been at a 100% beta. I'd encourage you to look at our total cost of funds instead which have had a beta of 32% thus far this year. Additionally, we benefit on the earning asset side with cycle to date beta of nearly 50%.

In this environment, we expect loan growth and improving asset yields will continue to drive above-peer growth in net interest income. Moving to asset quality, net charge-offs in the third quarter were just 0.02% of average loans. While non-accrual loans remain steady at 10 basis points of loans. We continue to expect that our full year loss rate will be consistent with our long-term historical averages of approximately 25-30 basis points or less. Provision for the quarter of $22 million was driven by our continued strong loan growth, portfolio metrics, and changes in the macroeconomic outlook. Our reserve coverage is now at 0.93% of total loans.

In September, we were successful in raising $110 million in capital through our subordinated note offering that will help us facilitate our expected balance sheet growth for the remainder of this year and on into 2023. Our own UMB Capital Markets team participated as co-manager, bringing in clients that made up about a third of the total offering. The capital raise favorably impacted our ratios. September 30 total capital and leverage ratios were 13.13% and 8.66% respectively. In our press release, we announced that the board had approved a 2.7% increase in our dividend, bringing it to $0.38 per share payable in January. Finally, we've seen many changes in the outlook for markets and the economy in the last few months.

We've got unprecedented Fed tightening and record inflation, along with uncharacteristically tight labor market. Geopolitical conflict, along with contagion effects from across the Atlantic, have increased economic uncertainty. We have active dialogues with our own clients about their businesses and outlooks. Borrowers are generally optimistic about the rest of 2022 and remain cautiously so looking forward. Although most are concerned about rising costs. While our customers are in good shape, we, like many others, expect that we may experience a short recessionary environment. Historically, the leading economic index, or the LEI, has become a good indicator. In more than 40 years of history, a drop in the six-month rate of the LEI below -3% has preceded periods of recession. As of last week, the index was at -5.6%, further decreasing from a -5% at the end of August.

Unlike the previous cycle, banks came into this cycle with stronger capital positions, and the consumers came in more liquid and less leveraged. Therefore, we don't expect it to be as destructive, but more of a recession to the economy. As I mentioned, we see good growth opportunities in the fourth quarter, although we'll continue to watch closely for early warning signs for deterioration, which at this point seem to be contained in specific areas such as consumer discretionary. This is where we differentiate ourselves by rowing close to shore, which is part of our risk management philosophy that keeps us prepared for all environments. In closing, I'm proud of our teams as always as they continue to work together and work hard for our customers and communities. Now I'll turn it over to Ram for additional comments. Ram?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Thanks, Mariner. Let me start with some commentary on balance sheet trends, starting with our liquidity profile on page 21. Our Fed account reverse repo and cash balances further declined to $1.5 billion and now comprise just 4.3% of average earning assets with a blended yield of 2.30% compared to 83 basis points in the second quarter. As we've done in prior tightening cycles, we deployed cash flows from our high-quality securities portfolio to fund loan growth opportunities during the third quarter. As shown on slide 28, the portfolio rollout for the third quarter was $304 million at a yield of 1.96%, while we purchased $54 million in securities, primarily CLOs, with a yield of 4.86%.

The portfolio is expected to generate over $1.1 billion of cash flow in the next 12 months. The yield on those securities rolling off is approximately 1.83%. While treasury yields present very attractive reinvestment levels, our priority is to fund the opportunities we continue to see in our lending verticals. In 2022, we reclassified securities to the held-to-maturity portfolio to help manage tangible capital and reduce the impact of rising rates on our equity. Average HTM balances for the third quarter, excluding the $1.2 billion of revenue bonds we've long held in that book, were $4.6 billion. Loan yields increased 74 basis points from the second quarter to 4.46%, with a cycle-to-date beta of approximately 37%.

61% or about $12.1 billion of loans are variable rate, with 60% of those repricing in the next quarter and 71% repricing within the next twelve months. These are largely tied to indices at the short end of the curve. The total cost of deposits, including DDA, was 65 basis points, up from 20 basis points last quarter, and the cycle-to-date beta is approximately 27%. Net interest margin expanded 16 basis points from the second quarter. Net interest margin benefited by approximately 43 basis points from low repricing and mix, 30 basis points from the benefit of free funds, and 24 basis points from reduced liquidity balances and rate. These were partially offset by a negative 81 basis points related to the cost and mix of interest-bearing liabilities.

As we look ahead, there are a lot of variables at play that will impact the trajectory of our net interest margin, including the depth and duration of the Fed's tightening cycle, outlook for equity markets and that impact on deposits, expected disintermediation of DDA balances as ECR rates increase, as well as our own need to generate deposits through targeted campaigns to fund loan growth. Based on our own simulations, which includes the mid-quarter onboarding of HSA deposits from Old National and the seasonal inflow of indexed public fund deposits, we expect our fourth quarter net interest margin to be flat to slightly down from third-quarter levels. This assumes a Fed funds rate of 4.5% at year-end. As Mariner noted, while the focus on deposit betas and NIM is important, we focus primarily on net interest income growth facilitated primarily by loan growth.

Additionally, as you've heard us say before, another metric that we manage to is a loan-to-deposit ratio limit of 75%. With our ratio approaching 65%, we will continue to focus on deposit and client acquisition across all our lines of business. The estimated impact of net interest income in various rate scenarios based on September 30 balances is shown on slide 30. In a rate ramp scenario of +100 basis points on a static balance sheet, net interest income is predicted to fall 0.6% in year one and increase by 2.9% in year two. This analysis assumes repricing of our variable rate loans based on underlying changes to LIBOR, SOFR, and other indices as well as deposit betas consistent with the prior cycle.

One variable that's missing in this prescribed analysis is what happens to our growth-related net interest income. The ultimate impact of incremental rate hikes on NII will be dependent on the timing and magnitude of interest rate movements, loan growth, and balance sheet management strategies. Back to the income statement. Total fee income for the quarter was $128.7 million. The second quarter included a $66.2 million pre-tax gain on the sale of our Visa Class B shares recorded in investment securities gains. As shown in the commentary on slide 18 earlier in our presentation, fee income excluding income or loss from equity valuations was $130.1 million compared to $116.6 million in the second quarter.

This variance included a $13 million increase in company-owned life insurance income and a $1.2 million increase in derivatives income related to customer back-to-back swaps. Other areas of strong performance include card services income and brokerage fees, the latter of which captures our money market revenue share and 12b-1 fee income. Total brokerage income increased $1.4 million or nearly 12% compared to the second quarter, despite market-related compression of approximately 3% in the underlying money market balances. Other drivers are shown on slide 22 and are discussed in the press release. Slide 23 shows trends in our non-interest expense.

The linked quarter increase was driven primarily by the change in deferred compensation expense, which was $2.3 million in the third quarter versus a credit of $9.2 million in the second quarter. This is related to the increased pooling income I mentioned previously. We saw a $4.5 million increase in salary and wage expense, reflecting one additional salary day in the quarter, as well as selective hiring in some of our lines of businesses. Additionally, we booked $3.7 million of operational losses, which are not expected to recur. These increases were offset by a decrease of $4.8 million in charitable contributions expense recorded in other expense. A few other items to keep in mind as we look at expenses going forward.

In October, the FDIC announced a 2 basis point increase in assessment rates beginning in the first quarter of 2023. Based on current data, we estimate this will have an approximate impact of $6 million pre-tax. Fourth quarter expenses will include the yet to be determined pro rata amortization impact from the acquisition of $400 million in HSA deposits expected to close mid-quarter. Finally, like in prior fourth quarter periods, we will make a $2 million charitable contribution to organizations serving our communities, as well as making any needed true ups to performance-based incentive accruals. As Mariner noted, as we approach our 2023 budgeting phase, our focus remains on generating positive operating leverage while prudently investing in our businesses.

Our effective tax rate was 19.1% for the third quarter and 18.8% year to date, reflecting a smaller portion of income from tax-exempt municipal securities. For the full year of 2022, we anticipate it to be approximately 18%-20%. That concludes our prepared remarks, and then I'll turn it back to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, press star one. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. Our first question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Wells Fargo. Jared, your line is now open.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Hey, Jared.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Morning, Jared.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Maybe just starting on deposits. You know, if we look at sort of the DDA levels pre-COVID, you were around 32%. Should we expect that, you know, we sort of trend back towards that level with the pressure on DDA from, you know, the ECR and the other items you mentioned? Or do you think, you know, there's some systemic or structural change that could keep that at a higher level?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

This is Mariner. You know, some of the DDA drawdown that's happened over the, you know, over the quarter has been based on obviously the higher rate environment and customers looking to participate in that, as well as higher costs and inflation, such as customers that put their money to work in an inflationary environment. I think as you look forward, just specifically thinking about DDAs, as you look forward into a recessionary environment or beyond that, a more normalized environment, DDAs should remain, you know, at strong levels as they have been in the past.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. I guess as we think about that.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

One other thing, Jared. Jared, this is Ram, and I would say, you know, we've added a lot of new clients over the last 12 months, on the heels of the PPP program that we talked about, the halo effect of the PPP program. So when you think about new clients, right? So yeah, right, the last rate cycle, we did go down to 32% composition. But this time around, I think we feel like it'll be higher than that, as the rate cycle peaks because we've been adding new clients with DDA balances as well, particularly in small business. You heard Mariner talk about the efforts in small business and how that has driven some DDA growth. So I would say, we probably end up doing better than the last cycle.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah. A temporary short squeeze on that, I guess, is the way we would describe it.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. I guess just following up on that or on the deposit side, how should we be thinking about through the cycle beta now? You know, I think, you know, we saw a little bit of an acceleration on interest-bearing deposits cost this quarter. How are we thinking about, you know, how should we think about through the cycle beta, either, you know, I guess on interest-bearing or on total since you seem to be focused on that a little more.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah. We obviously think total is the way to think about it. The total is in the 30, you know, low 30 range. I think if you. You know, last quarter and the quarter before, we telegraphed that we would be early to go through the cycle as a more commercial and institutionally heavy deposit base for our company. That's basically what we've produced. We still expect to end whatever cycle we have similar to the last cycle. We don't have any reason to expect that to be any different. We feel like we're tracking that way. You know, we end up in. Is that around 50-52?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Fifty-two.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Somewhere, you know, a couple clicks one way or the other. We were around 52 last time. We telegraphed that in the last couple of calls. It's what our expectations are. We'll see how that ends up. I don't have anything telling us it'd be anything other than that. The way we believe it, as it looks at a relative basis, we just go through it earlier. You also have to think about obviously total cost, not just the interest bearing. Keep that in mind. Lastly, you can't forget the impact of what we're able to do on the asset side.

With more than 50% of our loans repricing within 12 months, we've got the repricing of the current book, the back book, and then, you know, a significant portion of our loan growth is from new customers, and all of that new customer growth comes in at a higher yield. Our loan asset betas were 54 on a linked quarter basis and 37 cycle to date. We expect to continue to perform well on the asset side, and particularly on the loan side.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. That's just to confirm that 52% deposit beta is total, right?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yes.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

On the BOLI side, with the corresponding expense, is this a third quarter, you know, sort of a one-time thing, or is this now a new level from additional purchases?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Go ahead, Ram.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

No. It's we have it quarter in, quarter out as part of our deferred comp administration. We try to mimic those assets and any mark-to-market fluctuations get written up or down in fee income, just like we have deferred comp expenses. We try to break it out. Last quarter, because of what happened to the equity markets, our deferred comp expense or COLI income came down by about $11 million, and this quarter it recovered to a positive $2 million, creating a $13 million. This quarter's impact of fee income at the benefit from COLI was only $2 million. Same thing on the deferred comp side. We had more expenses of about $2.5 million reflected in our $231 million expense base.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

That activity happens every quarter.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah.

Jared Shaw
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Chris, your line is now open.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Oh, great. Good morning.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Morning.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Ram, I think you in your prepared remarks, you said you talked about a 75 ultimate terminal loan-to-deposit ratio. You got plenty of room. I'm kind of interested in, I guess when and how you get there. Understand the comments on loan growth, and also saw that you really didn't buy any bonds in the quarter. Is the math, you know, deposits continue to be positive but perhaps trail loan growth, or do we see more downdraft in the deposits and securities book?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Well, we fully expect to continue to grow our deposits. You know, we've become much more active in the market competing in this environment where our customers have options. As the short end of the curve has come up the way it has, it's a different environment than we've seen it in the past, where obviously customers have lots of options in this rate environment. We've been, you know, we've remained competitive and more so recently so that we can keep up with our loan growth. Then the real goal and job of ours is to remain disciplined on our loan pricing. We believe we can do that.

It's ultimately about maintaining our margin and spread, more and growing our net interest income than it is worrying about deposit betas, which we really can't control in this environment. We focus on all the good stuff, the growth and the drivers. We think we can continue to produce above peer level growth, both on the asset side and on the fee side. We've, you know, done that for a long time. In the 20 years I've been CEO, we've, you know, met the expectations and delivered the growth we expect of ourselves, and we expect to continue to do that. You know, when the Fed pivots, when we get that announcement, that'll re-normalize the cost side of our structure. This is really a short-term problem.

You know, we don't manage this company for the quarter. We manage it for multiple years in advance, and our growth profile remains very strong. When the Fed pivots, things will normalize, you know, for us.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Great. Thanks for that color, Mariner. Ram, the $1 billion of bonds that come due over the next year, is it fair to say that new money, it's just more accretive to put those into the loan book and perhaps shrink the bond portfolio?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

That's right. Yeah. We, the last 3-4 months, we have not reinvested other than a very tiny sliver into CLOs. We've not reinvested our cash flows, and it's all part of the loan-to-deposit question that you asked previously, managing that. I mean, we've done this in the past with balance sheet rotation. You've heard us talk about it during the last cycle. It's same playbook.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

We've just become more active pursuing those, you know, those deposits more recently, as the excess liquidity has been absorbed into the market.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Yep. Got it. Maybe just one housekeeping question. The $6 million FDIC, that's a bump on an annual basis, right?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah. That's the annual number. Yep.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Okay. Then I think you said you're still finalizing the incremental amortization expense from the deposit deal. Yeah, I think the Old National disclosed there was roughly a $95 million premium paid for those 400 deposits. How do I think about just incremental intangible assets and impact on capital? Is it that full amount of money that goes into intangibles?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

That's the part we're still working on. It's hard to give you a number right now. But I just wanted to throw it out there that expenses will include that. The classification between the purchase goodwill and the intangibles that gets amortized, we're still going through the calculations of that.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

The 95 is just a split. How that's split, the 95 is the right number.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Correct.

Chris McGratty
Managing Director, KBW

Okay. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thanks for your question. As a brief reminder, it is star one on your telephone keypad to register a question. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Nathan, your line is now open.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Yep. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Morning, Nate.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Hey.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Question on the operating leverage outlook. Obviously, you know, some nice improvement this quarter. Do you think the improvement that we saw in your efficiency ratio here in the third quarter is sustainable in this type of rate environment? Or how are you guys going to think about managing expenses going forward, apart from kind of the uptick that you had in compensation costs in light of the strong production that you've seen so far this year?

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah. A lot of the expenses as we've talked about in the past tend to be variable in nature and driven by overall company performance or revenue production, right? The fact that we're focused on positive operating leverage for the fourth quarter and for the 2023 budget would suggest that the efficiency ratio will improve from here. Obviously we'll be investing, as we said in the prepared remarks, we'll be investing in our businesses, hiring for 2023 and 2024. At the same time, we'll react to the revenue environment and what's happening on the revenue side of the equation.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay. Got it. Then just maybe turning to the outlook for, you know, provision going forward. I imagine, you know, growth may moderate in this macro environment to maybe the high single-digit range, kind of consistent with your historical trajectory over time. How are you guys thinking about, you know, providing for that type of growth, trajectory going forward and absent any kind of CECL-related, adjustments on the Q factors?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Well, it's hard to do it absent CECL.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Mm-hmm.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

You know, because that's a big driver. You know, I think a big portion of our third quarter provision was from loan growth. That's you know, that was the largest number in there. You know, obviously our loan quality is incredibly strong. The combination really going forward for provisioning will be from outsized loan growth and macro environment statistics driven by our Moody's information. You know, I suppose your guess is as good as ours, so I would suggest that data will not be getting any better anytime soon. As you think about the fourth quarter, we expect to have strong loan growth and at least. I don't. Who knows what Moody's will say.

I don't see it necessarily getting any worse, but it's not certainly going to get any better, that data. You know, it's an algorithmic deal based on what's going on in the economy with unemployment and what's going on with that loan growth.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay, great. Just, you know, on the heels of the sub-debt raise recently, obviously it seems like that was supportive of some pretty strong loan growth in the quarter. Just curious if, you know, that added capital buffer, you know, is perhaps, you know, supportive of some increased M&A dialogue or later, if you're feeling kind of more or less optimistic on additional acquisitions outside the deposits that'll be coming on board in the fourth quarter.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

You know, we remain active in pursuit of acquisitions. You know, continue to pursue those. Would like to, you know, add solid franchises to the base of our organization when we can find the right deal that fits. Nothing new there, just we're active in our calling efforts.

Nathan Race
Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay, great. I appreciate you guys taking the questions and all the color.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Thanks, Nate.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of John Rodis with Janney. John, your line is now open.

John Rodis
Analyst, Janney

Good morning, everybody.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Morning, John.

John Rodis
Analyst, Janney

Ram, just back to the expense. Looking at expenses for the quarter, what is the right number to back out for this quarter for the COLI impact? Is it the $2 million or is it the $11.5 million? Just to sort of get a good run rate going forward.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Yeah. Just on the deferred comp, I would take out $2.5. Then we've talked about an operating loss for about $4 million. There was some, you know, $1 million-$2 million of timing-related expenses on travel and a marketing campaign. If you start with the $231 million of reported expenses, there were some one-time items. I would put them in the $7 million-$8 million category of things that we don't control or don't expect to recur. The run rate, I would say, is closer to $223 -ish.

It's all the other items that I talked about in terms of the charitable contribution just for the fourth quarter, the FDIC assessment increase for starting 2023, and then the AMOR related to the HSA purchase.

John Rodis
Analyst, Janney

Yep. Okay. Okay. $223 million for the third quarter. Okay. Thank you.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Adjusted for the third quarter. Correct. Yeah.

John Rodis
Analyst, Janney

Yep. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. As a brief reminder, it is star one on your telephone keypad to register a question. Our next question comes from the line of David Long with Raymond James. David, your line is now open.

David Long
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Good morning, everyone.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Hey. Morning, David.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Hey there.

David Long
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

You know, looking at the reserve build in the quarter, I know you're pointing to the loan growth side of things. Were the loans that you added require additional reserves? It just looks to me like the addition, if you're using your overall reserve level, the loan growth should've been a smaller contributor. Just curious what maybe loans you added and then, what else may have contributed to the build in the quarter.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

Well, I mean, the loan growth in the quarter was 900 and-

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

$90 million

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

$990 million. It was a pretty significant component of it. It's driven by CECL. It's a mathematical equation that requires us to do what we do. I don't know if that answers your question, but it was a significant quarter in loan growth. We provisioned against it.

Ram Shankar
CFO, UMB Financial Corporation

Each new loan that comes on the books requires a reserve, a percentage of reserve. By definition, new loans will add to the reserve requirement right out of the gate.

David Long
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Sure. Got it. Okay. You know, taking this a step further, looking at your total reserve level, you know, when CECL came out, we thought it was gonna be very quantitative, and what we've heard since then is there's a good qualitative portion. Can you discern between the two? Is there a portion of your reserve that you'd say is qualitative versus quantitative, and how much of it would be qualitative, if so?

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

It's hard to give you that specifically, but I would call the qualitative piece on the margin is what I would describe that as. The majority of it is driven by quantitative, mathematically driven based on loss history, roll on and roll off, loan growth, and macroeconomic environment. Then you've got a piece of it that we can use our own assessment of the environment and our own balance sheet and our own dynamics on a qualitative basis to move that up or down on a marginal basis.

David Long
Managing Director of Equity Research, Raymond James

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. There are no more questions waiting at this time, so I will pass the call back to our management team for closing remarks. Thank you.

Mariner Kemper
President and CEO, UMB Financial Corporation

This is Mariner. I might just wrap it up by reiterating, you know, our thesis for where we stand and some of the, you know, the concerns in the marketplace for the industry around deposit betas and kind of how we see that shaping up for us specifically. You know, as we've been saying it for a few quarters, we are largely institutional commercial. That's not new. You know, our base, deposit base is not new and we've been here before. I've been CEO 20 years. We've seen this before. We just telegraphed that we're gonna go through it early. We've gone through it early. We still expect to come in right where we thought we would in the 50, low 50 range on the beta side.

We think that you as analysts and investors should focus more on the whole balance sheet and NII, as they are the drivers for our success and performance long term, our ability to grow our loans, our ability to have strong quality with, you know, 2 basis points of charge-offs and 10 basis points on the non-performing side. We think that on a risk-adjusted basis with the growth that we have, we think you should focus more on the profile of the business and less on the short-term Fed action squeeze. The Fed will pivot soon. That will normalize our costs, and you will be left with what you normally see with us, which is an outsized growth profile with a better than average risk profile.

That is all remains the same, and we expect to see fourth quarter loan growth as strong as it was in the third quarter with the same kind of quality. There's nothing new here on our end. We just gotta live through the short squeeze from the Fed. We appreciate your continued interest and we'll keep after it.

Kay Gregory
SVP and Director of Investor Relations, UMB Financial Corporation

Thanks, Mariner. Thanks everyone for joining us today. If you have further questions, you can reach investor relations at 816-860-7106. Thank you and have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

Powered by