We'll get started. I'm gonna read our research disclosure to start with. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosures website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. I'm sure we'll get this door closed in a brief second. And so I appreciate Nathan, CFO of Zebra. Thank you so much for being here today. It's always great to have you here at TMT. You know, maybe let's start with kind of Zebra saw a pretty big surge in demand as we went through COVID, given the pickup in e-commerce, curbside pickup, just the general need for automation, you know, as we had less kind of human interaction.
Yeah.
Just how do you judge how much of that demand was a pull forward versus kind of an overall expansion of the opportunity?
Yeah. So we clearly benefited from, I would say, an acceleration of market expansion throughout COVID. And this was primarily driven by both what our customers, as well as the industry, saw as exponential growth of e-commerce to continue for the foreseeable future. But along that period, we also, for our products and solutions, saw new and expanded use cases that grew exponentially over that same time period.
Mm-hmm.
What ultimately that resulted in is, if you look at our mobile computing business, the install base grew 25% over that time period. Now, ultimately, what happened is, you know, as e-commerce growth moderated from those expected growth rates, our customers had to absorb capacity they built out over that time period, over the last, you know, 12-18 months, and that's impacted our business throughout 2023. But we look at it today, we're still serving a $30 billion market. The need of our customers to digitize, automate their environments, and the workflows across their operations are still absolutely critical, and that's exactly what our solutions provide for our customers.
Okay, perfect. You know, you used to talk about your opportunity in terms of increased penetration of employees who would be carrying devices. You just mentioned kind of this larger TAM. Do you still think about the opportunity in kind of a penetration of employees, or just how do you think about kind of deriving
Yeah
What you think of as the long-term growth for the company?
No, we absolutely do. One of the growth engines has been the, you know, penetration of technology or devices in the hands of frontline workers. And over that time horizon, we would say, you know, about 30% of frontline workers were digitally connected. That's increased to around 40%, so still a long runway.
Mm-hmm
An opportunity for that penetration to continue. I'd say it's on two dimensions. One is having the right technology, right?
Mm-hmm.
So, it's not a one size fits all in terms of based on the skill set, the types of jobs, the activities. But what's really driving it is our customers.
Mm-hmm.
Our customers are continuing to find new applications, and new opportunities to leverage our technology to improve the efficiency of their operations, and that's what's driving the return on investment.
Mm-hmm
To increase that penetration rate. And on the second hand, you know, if you just look at the long-term growth of the company, we've stated, you know, 5%-7% organic growth over a cycle. We still have conviction in that long-term growth of the company. We're well positioned to win as the markets recover. And if you look, you know, in our core business, we're number one market share across mobile computing, scanning, printing, and still incredible opportunities to expand the TAM, as we talked about
Mm-hmm
As well as our market share position, as well as growing in adjacent markets like RFID, ruggedized tablets, or
Mm-hmm
Or where we've expanded the portfolio over recent years into software, and machine vision. We, you know, again, excited about the portfolio, and the growth we have ahead.
Got it. In terms of the business or driver of business today, can you just give a rough split of end markets and just, you know, kind of how you see those key drivers? You know, I'm more thinking that retail used to be closer to 40% of revenue and transportation and logistics, 20%-25%. But, you know, just how do you kind of size that e-commerce as a larger contributor to the business?
Yeah. So if you look today, we consider e-commerce as part of our retail vertical market, which is about 30%, down from the 40% you mentioned, just with the decrease in the company over the last year. And that would include a company like Amazon, all aspects, you know, from or a Walmart front-of-store distribution to last mile delivery as part of that retail vertical. And if you look at what those customers are looking for, it's really three things. One, how do they have an engaged associate? They wanna optimize inventory across their supply chain, as well as elevate their customer experience.
If you think of an example in a retail storefront, if you have an associate who's digitally connected, you can, you know, have a better employee experience by giving them the right task at the right time, whether that's, you know, to go pick an order, for curbside delivery or for online delivery, or if they have the right skill set to help a consumer, help their consumer, to be able to notify them of that, as well as when they're walking down the aisle and see that they're stockout. Now, at the fingertips, they can scan, scan right there, request replenishment, and that alleviates. You know, that's a large opportunity for retailers
Mm-hmm
In terms of making sure they have stock on their shelf. And then the final one is the consumer experience
Mm-hmm
You know, that we all have as consumers of, if you're trying to find something, and now that store associate can say: Yep, that item you're looking for, it's on the shelf, it's in the back of the store, or you know what? It's not here, but we can have that delivered to you, you know, tomorrow, right there at the fingertips. That's all in providing that, again, additional consumer experience. And then, if you look, I combine T&L and manufacturing. Both are about 25%
Mm-hmm
Of the company today, similar themes around driving worker productivity, as well as visibility to inventory across the supply chain, from the time it leaves the manufacturing line to when it's delivered, you know, at our doorstep. And it's a bigger part, you know, importance to the company as we've expanded the portfolio. So things like Machine Vision, robotics, or the new use cases in RFID are all very applicable to T&L
Mm-hmm.
-and manufacturing. So our, you know, our presence within that space is growing with the expansion of the portfolio, and we're, you know, excited about both of those verticals. And then the last one I just mentioned, healthcare, high single-digit of the company. Similar, I'd say, themes in terms of needs, which is how do they improve the patient experience, but also improve efficiency across their network? Again
Okay
Which is our products and solutions help enable.
Okay. I mean, how much. I guess another question is, like, how much of T&L, clearly a different customer than retail-
Mm-hmm.
But how much do you think of T&L and kind of retail as kind of co-mingled?
Yeah, they clearly go hand in hand. I mean, if T&L's thriving, if they're selling, you know, if retailers are selling more goods, shipping more goods-
Mm-hmm
Right, that's, that's good, that's good for T&L. So they, they do go hand in hand. But we look at those, again, somewhat different-
Yeah
In that, you know, how do they, you know, they're optimizing for, you know, their network, where in retail you have the added complexity of, are you distributing from the local store, your regional distribution center, to, you know, maybe more your national distribution center?
Okay. Okay, perfect. You know, over the years, we've contextualized the market plus growth opportunity for Zebra in terms of, you know, you've had a lot of share gains, as we went from Microsoft to Android, or just kind of technology intensity, stepping up from the move to e-commerce from brick-and-mortar. Just what do you think are these longer term transitions we should be thinking about, whether RFID, or healthcare, or robotics? Just what, what do you look at to kind of sustain that above market growth?
Yeah. We think about it less as what's the next technology evolution
Mm-hmm
That's gonna drive the growth. You know, our customers are looking for technology-driven solutions to solve their challenges, like we talked about, whether that's inventory accuracy, improved collaboration, productivity, that, you know, customers, their customer satisfaction. And all of those, you know, we can help solve with our solutions.
Mm-hmm.
I think one of the, you know, our value proposition is not only do we have the deep domain, you know, vertical expertise, but the breadth of the portfolio. So we can go into any of those workflows and say, maybe it is a traditional barcode scanning, or Machine Vision, or RFID, or maybe robotics
Yeah
That can help solve, or a combination that solves that, and we're one of the few players out there that can do that, with our product portfolio as well as, as our, partner network. So again, I think less about the technology transition
Okay
As much as, how do we help solve those workflow challenges? And but on the technology, you mentioned the, the Android. You know, that's been, you know, five+ years, and it's still-
Yeah
There's still the transition ongoing. So these are long technology transitions. We're in the later stages, but Japan's a great example that really didn't start that transition.
Mm-hmm.
It's the, you know, fourth or fifth largest market in the world, but didn't start that transition till the last year or two.
Okay.
which is one reason we're excited about it. So these
Yeah
Technology transitions tend to take a long time, but I think the bigger opportunity is how do we drive innovation and the workflows around our for our customers?
Okay. So that kind of gaining shares, being a
That's right
Differentiated platform as kind of these technologies continue
Right
To advance. Okay, that's helpful. You know, you mentioned it upfront, it's clearly been a headwind of kind of these overbuild of, you know, distribution capacity or transportation and logistics, financial challenges. Just how would you kind of describe or assess kind of the headwinds that you're currently seeing?
Yeah. So as I mentioned earlier, I mean, the headwind around, I'd say the, you know, absorbing that capacity, we started to see late in Q4 of 2022. That, and obviously, accelerated middle of last year, middle of last year.
Mm-hmm.
So I'd say we've been working through that for a while. The other headwind is, you know, when there's uncertain economic environment, you know, our customers can sweat their assets, you know, defer purchases, you know. As much value as there is in a refresh, with the new technology and capabilities, you know, our products are built to last, right?
Mm-hmm.
So if they can hold on to it for an extra year, given other priorities, or the uncertainty in their environment, they can do it. I think we're starting to see, you know, some of that recovery and stability in the business, which is good to see. And for us, it's around staying close to our customers so that when they're ready to make that buying decision, we're their partner of choice, for that solution.
Okay. You mentioned previously, you know, you think that the install base could be about 25%.
Mm-hmm
Higher, at least on the Mobile Computing, I think is what you
Yep
You noted. Just how do we think about that install base being 25% higher and it, and eventually kind of needing to refresh, and just kind of how that enhances the growth? Is there any offsets we should be thinking of, or is it simply, you know, this is an install base that's 25 higher?
Yeah, look, it's obviously an incredible opportunity to monetize the install base, both in the short term around, you know, new service offerings-
Mm-hmm
But it's an area that the team's acutely focused on, you know, how do we partner with our customers so that they understand the value of the portfolio today? What could a refresh mean, not just for refresh sake, but what incremental productivity and value can they drive for their business? So things like, many customers still upgrading to 5G, Wi-Fi 6, the latest operating systems, to give them the latest speeds, and feeds, and efficiency for their platform or the new capabilities we have on our mobile computers. Things like Zebra Pay, which we launched last year, again, adds new capabilities and workflows that they can address, line busting and those types of things, in their environment. Or what we announced earlier this year around, embedding RFID onto the device.
So again, RFID capabilities in more hands of their workers for new use cases, or adding the large language model to a mobile computer. So again, it's not just refresh for refresh sake, it's what incremental value, and capabilities do you get with that refresh, and, and making sure our customers are aware of that as they, they go through that buying decision.
Okay. You know, you just talked about the value that you can bring, you know, in terms of a refresh or just the value of the devices in general. You know, pricing has been a contributor to growth as supply chain costs increase. It's a relatively concentrated market and kind of a high ROI from devices. Do you think that there's additional pricing power that you have in the market?
Yeah. So pricing for us over the last couple of years has been a modest driver of growth, but the real intention was, as you mentioned
Yeah
To offset component cost increases and inflation from a margin dollar perspective. But we, you know, operate in a competitive environment. On all of those pricing decisions, we use a very, you know, analytical-based approach. So this is. It's not been a broad-based price increase.
Mm-hmm.
It's been by product family, by vertical market, by region, to ensure that we maintain our competitive position, which we're comfortable with, you know. But I really wouldn't expect pricing to be a material driver of growth.
Okay
Moving forward.
Okay. You've noted some green shoots in demand in retail in Q4. You've kind of alluded to some of them, thus far today. Just where are you starting to see demand come back, and just what are you looking for signposts to gain increased confidence?
Yeah
In that recovery?
Yeah. So I think, you know, the positive was through Q4 and the early part of Q1, we saw demand stabilize. We saw some, you know, a little bit of increase in year-end spend from some of our large retailers, which was positive. I'd say, you know, what's encouraging is we're having, you know, I'd say, really positive conversations with our customers.
Mm-hmm.
We mentioned this on our last earnings call, you know, we always have the opportunity at the beginning of the year with the National Retail Federation trade show in New York, the largest trade show for retail, as well as we have partner events around the world to kick off the year. So we get able to touch thousands of customers and partners to kick off the year. And so, you know, I'd say all were optimistic about, you know, the solutions we were bringing to market, how that could help improve their business. It reinforced, you know, Zebra is still absolutely critical to their operations. They were all, I'd say, hopeful
Mm-hmm
To get back to buying and getting some of those upgrades later part of this year into 2025. But ultimately, what we're going to see, to say, definitively call a recovery is real deals, right?
Yeah.
So, getting the PO firm commitments, in those transactions. So, you know, again, I think we're optimistic and hopeful
Yeah
That that'll come sooner than later, but, you know, the proof will be when we start to cut some of those projects in and deliver.
Okay. NRF being, like, the coldest day of the year every year in New York, I feel like.
Yeah.
But, just in terms of. So it seems as if you're kind of saying we're seeing the increase in conversations, we're seeing the increase in kind of the use cases that these would be used for. We just need to kind of get to a better budget environment, at least for your approach.
That's right. I mean, again, I, I would go back to, we felt good coming out of those same conversations in 2023.
Right.
The year played out, played out like it did. And so, as much as we want to look at a, you know, as a budget set and how much confidence you have, you know, budgets are, you know, are usually about as good as the day they were written. So I think most companies are more dynamic and
Right
And so for us, it's, you know, again, feeling positive and optimistic, but also, you know, we need to see the transactions start to come through.
Okay. And then, I mean, just as you have had these conversations and been on the road, you know, how do you think the demand recovery looks like across the customer base? You know, are there certain products or customer types you would expect to kind of recover
Yeah
Sooner than others?
You know, I think we started to see a little bit of that, which we would expect it to be in, in retail, e-commerce vertical with our mobile computing business. You know, one, because that was where we started to see the weakness, the first signs of weakness late in Q4 of 2022 and, and early parts of 2023. So just from a cycling through
Mm-hmm
That was where we'd expect to see it first. And we started to see a little bit of that at the end of last year. And then you would see that trickle into, back to your point, the interconnectivity, T&L-
Yeah
Manufacturing across our mid-tier and smaller customer base. So again, starting to see some signs of that, as we would expect, just given kind of the cycle as we entered, the last year and a half.
Okay. You alluded to it earlier, but you've noted that you see share gain opportunities out of Japan.
Yeah.
That they're very early days in some of these transitions. Just, can you contextualize why that's an opportunity?
Yeah.
I think there's always been a big kind of install base of Japanese vendors within that space, and just kind of how you see that opportunity developing.
Yeah. So Japan, I mentioned earlier, it's the second largest market in Asia for our, for our products, you know, fourth or fifth largest market globally. So it's a great opportunity for us. And if you just look at mobile computing, we were in the single-digit share position in Japan, where globally we have 50%+ market share. Part of the reason is, you know, one, it was the last major region to move to Android, which is our position of strength. As well, as you mentioned, the Japanese competitive
Mm-hmm
Base, whether it's the likes of Sharp, Panasonic, they had a loyal customer base. And a couple of years ago, we made a, I'd say, a strategic pivot in terms of how we execute it, which is, A, increasing their go-to-market resources in the region, but also going directly to some of those for partnerships. So, a few years ago, we signed an OEM agreement with Sharp. As they were looking at their portfolio and where they invested, they wanted to maintain the customer relationship, but not make the investment in Android, and we were there for that partnership. So it's an OEM relationship with Sharp. And I'd say, also working directly with some of the larger integrators. We've won now, the largest, you know, the postal service, we've won the largest retailer in Japan.
So again, really excited about the progress we've made over the last year and a half. But like anything in that market, it takes time to build the loyalty, build the reputation. But if you look at our portfolio, with the breadth and depth and quality, there's no reason we shouldn't be able to win in that market, and we're starting to see the results of that. So again, it's a, you know, I'd say, even with our market share position, this is where we spend a lot of time of, what are the sub-segments of the market
Mm-hmm.
- where we still can gain share, even with our number one market position.
Okay, perfect. Your acquisition of Matrox kind of helped round out the portfolio in machine vision. Just, you know, you alluded to that kind of being a growth driver earlier. Just how do you kind of see that opportunity developing?
Yeah. So for machine vision for us is, it's a really expansion or natural extension of our Enterprise Asset Intelligence vision. So this is all about how do you automate, the visibility into a supply chain, which again, from a technology perspective, is a, is a natural bridge from our data capture business, similar customer base, similar, go-to-market motion. So, if you look back, we started making organic investment in machine vision, 2019, 2020. Now, partner that with the Matrox acquisition, gives us a complete portfolio, to compete in the market, and our focus has been around diversifying the business.
Mm-hmm.
Matrox had a strong position in the semiconductor industry, which is going through a cyclical downturn, and we knew that going into the deal. So our number one priority was diversifying that business, and we're seeing a lot of nice traction there, whether it's logistics or in automotive. And once the semiconductor business recovers, you know, again, we're gonna, a gain, we're pretty excited about the opportunities we have in machine vision, in that market opportunity.
Okay. I mean, you just mentioned similar channels, similar go-to-market. Just, you know, how complementary were kind of those businesses or areas, different markets that they brought you into?
So if you look at Zebra's business today, 80% of our business is through tier two distribution. So, we're leveraging distribution partners and resellers. It's complementary, and that's, you know-
Mm
A similar profile in Machine Vision. But we've had to, you know, we can leverage a lot of our
Mm-hmm
Capabilities, the strategy we have, but we still had to go out and recruit machine vision distributors, machine vision specialists, if you will, right? To, from both a geographic coverage as well as the right technical expertise in the different vertical markets. So, that's been a big area of focus, of recruiting new distributors, and ISVs into our network.
Mm-hmm.
And again, it's been a natural extension of our core business.
Okay. RFID has also been an area where you guys have talked a lot about over the last few years
Mm-hmm
Many years, pretty much since you kind of made the Motorola acquisition. Just in terms of, you know, how do you see kind of the growth drivers or, or current ways in which we can see expansion in this business?
Yeah. So, you know, RFID, as you mentioned, has been around for a long time. I think it hit a pivotal moment the last, you know, two or three years ago, with the cost of the chip, making it where the economics of broad-based deployment, you know, have a positive return on investment beyond just retail apparel. So, and then, you know, you couple that with, you know, like with the likes of Walmart and UPS announcing their initiatives, again, that's, you know, really opened up the aperture, and adoption of the technology. You know, our leadership position is in the fixed and handheld reader. Again, so those are, again, great opportunities. That's a natural extension of the business
Mm-hmm
In terms of giving us the ability to, you know, have conversations with our customers around, you know, what's the best technology to solve their challenge. And now, RFID is a viable option to help solve some of those inventory visibility challenges.
Okay. And then just kind of rounding out some of the categories that we've talked about. You know, healthcare has also, you know, been a major area of growth for you guys over the last couple of years. Just how are you, I think, versus some of the areas that have had similar channels and similar go-to-markets.
Yeah
Maybe healthcare's go-to-market is a little bit different. Just how are you kind of making progress there or seeing traction?
Yeah. So, you know, healthcare is a, you know, it's always been a challenging market.
Mm.
Just, you know, it's similar to manufacturing in that, you know, decisions tend to be made hospital by hospital, network by network.
Mm-hmm.
Where, you know, the advantage of retail and e-commerce is a retailer if they're gonna upgrade their, you know, install base, it's across every single storefront. So there's that common look and feel and support structure. Again, where healthcare tends to be, you know, more, you know, hospital by hospital decision-making. But going back to the, you know, what are they looking for? It's, you know, how do you provide a better patient experience? How do you track and make sure the right drug is delivered to the right patient-
Mm-hmm
At the right time? How do they track the equipment that's used in the hospital, so they don't have too many pumps and things like that?
Yeah.
So tracking of their own assets is a real opportunity across hospital networks. So again, it's still a relatively small part of the company, you know, but one that we have just, you know, unique products for that market in terms of what, you know, some of the specifications around the cleaning of the devices. So it's one we're excited about, but I think it's a little bit of a longer tail in terms of growth, versus where you can make some really explicit actions in areas like T&L and retail
Okay.
in a shorter period of time.
Okay. So we've dug into a lot of the businesses, maybe want to kind of turn to the financials. Destocking had been a meaningful headwind over the past couple of quarters. You guys basically said you're kind of at the end of that
Yep
-destocking period. Can you just remind investors of that headwind and just, you know, how you're now judging that, kind of
Yeah
that destocking period is over?
So back to, you know, Meta, 80% of the business goes through Tier Two distribution. So, you know, our distributors hold, you know, the Zebra inventory on their balance sheet, and what they typically hold on average, is about two months of demand. And obviously, if demand declines, they need to reduce their inventory on the balance sheet. So, you know, Q3 is a great example. Last year, if you look at the underlying market, was down 20%, our results were down 30%. And so for the year, if you looked at our results for the year, revenue declined 20%. About 25% of that was destocking
Mm-hmm
Of the channel. So, one of our stated goals, you know, as we went through the second half of the year, was exiting the year with inventory in the channel, right sized to the current demand environment. So that way, we set up 2024, as, you know, it's not a tailwind or it's a tailwind from a comps.
Yeah.
But we wanted that, you know, headwind behind us as we entered the year, and that's exactly what we, you know, entered the year with, which is inventory where we wanted it to be globally. And again, that's really helped set us up to, you know, get this year off start from a relative strength, relative, you know, relative to the full year guide.
Okay. In Q4, you saw upside in the renewal rates kind of driving outperformance on the software and services side. Just how sustainable is this upside? And just how big of a driver of growth can it be in 2024?
Yeah. If you look at our service and software business grew, you know, mid-single-digit in Q4.
Mm-hmm
Obviously outpaced the growth of the entire, the total company. And one of the consequences of customers sweating their assets, holding on to assets longer, is they need to renew their service contract. The benefit for us is those renewals tend to come at a higher price because it's a higher cost to service, right? So as those devices age, and that ultimately turns around to a value proposition back to the customer to entice
Mm
That refresh at some point. But we expect that growth to continue through 2024 and, you know, outperform maybe the rest of the business, given our full year guide. There's no reason we'd expect that dynamic to change here and what we're seeing early parts of 2024.
Okay. You know, on your latest guidance contemplates returning to 20% EBITDA margin levels in the second half of 2024. Just given kind of the environment that you're working in, what, what provides you the confidence on the ability to hit this? And, just what are kind of some of the different levers in getting there?
Yeah. So if you look at our full year guide for EBITDA rate was 19%, a point increase from where we finished or for the full year 2023. But if you went back to, you know, Q3, we, we dipped at 11%, just as the, as the start of the downturn. That increased to 15%, and our, and our Q1 guide is at 18%, so sequentially improving over the last three quarters. And I would say there's no magic bullet-
Mm
In terms of the sequential improvement to get to above 20%, or 20% for the second half. It's a combination of, we do have some pricing actions we've taken, rolling in, throughout the year. We've increased the cost actions that we took to $120 million annually, so that incremental cost actions plays a factor. And then the rest of it really is just some project timing within the business, as well as the incremental sales we expect and the volume leverage on that as we move through the year.
I think, you know, confident that, you know, one of our key objectives as we set our cost targets, was to make sure that the business we had got back above 20% EBITDA rate, so that we could get back to growing those margins, you know, as we move into 25 and beyond.
Okay. Maybe want to open it up to questions if there are any in the audience. Okay, perfect. Keep going. Clearly, a strategic priority of your team is to get back to positive free cash flow, like you did in fiscal Q4, with expectations for at least $550 million in 2024. Just what's helping drive this cash flow improvement between kind of inventories or just general working capital?
As you mentioned, we finished the year strong with positive free cash flow, and really driven by reducing our working capital and inventory balance throughout Q4, which was one of our key objectives. If you look at the guide for 2024, that assumes 100%, above 100% free cash flow conversion, inclusive of our final settlement payment to Honeywell here in the first quarter. So you know that, we get that behind us here
Mm-hmm
In the next, you know, 10 days or so. And then, you know, really the focus is, you know, driving down inventory. If you look at where we ended the year, at $800 million, you know, really, we should be between $600 million and $650 million. We're not assuming we get there throughout the course of 2024, and that's maybe some upside opportunity from free cash flow. But that's, you know, that's where the team is focused on. The real driver of getting it to where we need to be is just time and seeing the volume and the mix of volume come through here over the next several quarters. So again, I think, b y the way, I'd like to make sure everyone takes away is, structurally, nothing's changed from where-
Mm
Our business was before. You know, we're still committed to 100% free cash flow conversion over a cycle. If you look at our outsourced, just, you know, outsourcing manufacturing and the timing of our cash conversion cycle, there's no reason we shouldn't be there or get back to that level on a sustained basis. We've just got to work through some of the inventory challenges faced coming out of the supply chain crisis
Okay.
- here over the next year or so.
Okay. I mean, maybe returning back to kind of the overall picture. You know, you've basically said you're kind of cautiously optimistic about what you're seeing in the marketplace. You're kind of positioned for a lot of these share gains as we kind of come out of things. I guess, just in terms of, do you have to wait till that better environment to see some of these share gains? Or are there opportunities for, i s it just, you know, people are kind of hunkered down and sticking with where they are
Sure.
and then we'll kind of see more of an inflection at some point?
No, we're definitely not waiting.
Yeah.
I'd say, you know, quite the opposite. There's a concerted effort, and we have right now is to go and look at where we have, from an install base, you know, the aging of the install base, where there are certain customers, where, given the age of their install base, the pricing of their service contract, there's a compelling reason to incite that refresh, you know, sooner than later. You know, the team's actively working on that. That's not about going and giving away price.
Yeah.
That's about, you know, structuring a deal, you know, finding the right mix of how to structure a deal to make the ROI work, given their budgetary restrictions. So it's something the team's actively working on, so that, you know, again, what can we do to incite that versus just waiting for, you know, the economy or whatever that is, the backdrop to improve for those refreshes?
Okay. And then, just in the interim, can you just kind of outline capital allocation
Yeah
- priorities and just where we are in a more depressed demand environment versus longer term?
Yes. You know, big picture, our capital allocation approach is unchanged.
Mm-hmm.
You know, first priority is invest for organic growth. We also believe M&A is a factor for growth for the company and where we can elevate and expand around our vision and strategy. So those two are unchanged. Now, in the short term, debt paydown is the primary focus here in the first half of the year. Our debt leverage ratio will peak just below 3x at the end of Q2 and then will quickly drop back down to around 2x as we exit the year, just as we cycle through the challenging second half EBITDA denominator. So, you know, once we get to that point in the second half, we'll kind of reassess the primary focus. But again, big picture, capital priorities haven't changed.
You know, in the short term, it's paying down debt, and setting ourselves up for growth as we get into the second half of the year.
Okay. Then just maybe the last question for me, just in terms of, y ou know, obviously, there's been a lot of headwinds that you've faced over the last year. Just where in your investor conversations do you feel like the story is most misunderstood?
Misunderstood?
Yeah. Obviously, you never think your stock price is right.
Sure.
Fundamentals.
Look, it's a great conversation because it's one we have internally, which is, if you look at the growth we had throughout 2021 and 2022, the increase in the install base-
Mm-hmm
And, you know, when is that refresh? What is the refresh cycle? When is that gonna occur? What, what would it take, you know, to drive that refresh cycle? And, you know, I think what everyone wants to do is, you know, look at that and say: Well, if you had this peak in 2021, 2022, if you go out four, five, six years-
Mm-hmm
When and how does that repeat?
Yeah.
I think, you look, that's, that's ultimately what we're looking at too, right?
Right.
Fundamentally, we don't think anything is different in the business that would change the need for that refresh. Every customer is gonna be in a little bit of a different life cycle. But I think that's, you know, the misunderstanding. But I, you know, clarity around that.
Yeah
Would be something that, we would like as well, in terms of
Yeah
When exactly how that plays out. But I think that's, that's the opportunity we have ahead of us.
Okay. All right, perfect. Well, Nathan, thank you so much for being here today.
Yeah.
It's been a great discussion.
Thank you.
Yeah.
Thanks, everyone.