Good afternoon, all, and welcome to BFF Banking Group first nine months 2023 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing the star, followed by the zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Massimiliano Belingheri, Group CEO, and Piergiorgio Bicci, Group CFO. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome today for our nine months 2023 results presentation. We're pleased to report our highest ever nine-month result, with a growth of 16% year-on-year of our net income at EUR 122.5 million. Importantly, the outlook going forward is quite positive for our business, underpinned by the dynamic in interest rates, where we will see the Late Payment Interest to increase from the current 12% to 12.5% from the first of January, which will boost both our running yield, but importantly also our deferred profitability. The dynamic on the commercial side of factoring and lending is good. The loan book has grown 12% year-on-year, with double-digit growth in several countries.
Importantly, we still have to benefit from the upside on net interest income. As you remember, our liabilities reprice quite quickly while the assets reprice with a certain time lag. And we are undergoing some important renegotiation with our customers, which will boost our earnings going forward. In an environment which we see as positive for the business, we've boosted our liquidity and increased our retail deposits, which have grown 4x year-over-year. And has brought our loan-to-deposit ratio at 71%, with a good level of liquidity and the ability to fund the growth in the business, particularly ahead of our peak funding season at year-end.
Importantly, driven by the growth in the LPI rate, our off-balance sheet reserves have grown to EUR 605 million, which is a significant buffer of future profitability, which we carry outside of our accounts. We have a very solid capital ratio. Our CET1 is at 15.5. We have over EUR 100 million of excess capital compared to our target of 12%, and that's despite having paid already the interim dividend for this year. The earnings of the quarter, which are EUR 40.5 million, have been set aside for a dividend distribution, together with the fourth quarter earnings for the payment after the AGM.
We have decided, as many banks have done, to set aside the 2.5 x the windfall tax amount in reserves, which will not have any impact on dividends or on our payout ratio throughout the business plan horizon. Importantly, the European Commission has published the new proposal for the Late Payment Directive, which should be transforming to a regulation, and as of, if approved as it is today, will further boost our earnings, driving up the recovery rate, the recovery cost, and the LPI accrual time for our portfolio. In the quarter, we have acquired with EUR 77 million, a 7.7% stake in Generalfinance as a financial investment.
And we are proceeding with the process to appoint the new board of directors, where we've published our qualitative quantitative assessment for the target board composition, which is made available to the shareholder. If we look at what we've done, we've clearly announced at the end of June our new business plan, and we've already set in motion a number of initiatives which will help drive the business going forward. We filed the application, first of all, to open a new branch in France, which we expect to be operational in the first half of 2024.
We have signed a partnership with TeamSystem, the leading Italian ERP provider for SMEs, where we are the exclusive provider of factoring services for the public sector receivables that the TeamSystem clients have in their platform. They can provide a boost and access to a smaller, smaller customer than we usually target. Third, we have, we are about to file the application for the opening of our service in terms of deposit gathering in Greece. We expect to open that again in the first half of 2024.
Greece is an attractive market for deposit because it has one of the lowest deposit costs in Europe, and so can provide further liquidity, but importantly, further liquidity at cheaper cost than what we currently get, mostly from the Spanish market. And finally, again, on funding and on our ESG strategy, we've launched our first social bond framework, which will allow us to issue MREL-eligible securities on one side, and strengthen the link between sustainability and financial services.
If we look at our balance sheet on page four, we have continued in our stated strategy of containing the size of our overall assets with a remix between the loan book, which has grown 12% year-on-year, and a decline our bond portfolio, which has gone down year-on-year by EUR 1.5 billion. On the funding side, we've increased our retail deposit by EUR 1.6 billion, which has driven a better loan to deposit ratio of 71%. The fact that we have actually contracted the overall size of the balance has improved our leverage ratio by almost a percentage point year-on-year. I leave it now to Giorgio to... Sorry, you're right, Giorgio. On the adjusted net income, I skipped a page on page five.
Revenues have increased 75% year-on-year with a strong growth in factoring and lending, driven by the growth in interest rate repricing and the growth in the loan book, an increase in the yield of the Held-to-Collect bond portfolio, although that is not fully repriced, because there is a reset of rates that has happened actually at the end of October. The cost of funds has gone up as well, significantly.
You might remember our liabilities reprice faster than our assets, so the fact that our net revenues have gone up by 9% year-over-year is actually a pretty good result, particularly if you take into consideration that we have the first nine months of this year without Arca, whereas last year we had Arca in our client portfolio, and that has impacted the revenues from security services. Net of that, the security services is growing at high single digit in terms of revenue. Costs have been kept under control with a marginal growth year-over-year, despite the fact that we still haven't seen in the nine months the full effect of the cost take out in the security services division.
The cost income has remained stable at 44%, resulting, therefore, with a fairly good provision level in net income of EUR 132.5 million. So having done our part, I pass to Giorgio for the details of the various businesses.
Thank you, Max. Good afternoon, and now we can go deeper in the single business lines, starting from page six with factoring and lending. As highlighted before, there was a growth year-on-year in terms of revenues of 76%, year-on-year, split with an increase of 64% in terms of gross interest income, thanks to higher interest rates, higher loan book, and also the net LPI over recovery. We have also an increase in other income of about EUR 21.7 million, and this is related to the increase in the recovery cost rise that are EUR 17 million compared to less than EUR 5 million in the nine months of 2022.
The result of this increase let the gross yield on average loans go up to 7% with 35%+ year-on-year. Also, we have to take in consideration that increase in terms of LPI rates let the recovery costs and LPI funds go up to EUR 1 billion with an off-balance reserve of profitability that is higher than EUR 600 million. This is a possibility that can be looked at going forward with the activity on collection of LPI. Going to the next page, page 7, with some KPIs of factoring and lending. The loan book grew 12% year-on-year, with especially Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, with the growth that is higher than 10%.
Poland confirmed the positive growth, and in other countries, France, remains stable, with small decrease in Croatia and Czech Republic. There is also a great performance in terms of volumes, with a 7% year-on-year, with EUR 5.6 billion, with also in the same countries, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Slovakia, a double-digit double-digit score. On the next page, we have a deep dive in terms of the new LPI, the late payment regulation. I leave the floor to Max, in order to go deeper in this, on this, on this point.
Yeah, we discussed with many of you in the past the regulatory framework that underpins our business, and we always indicated that we thought the direction of travel of any change in regulation would have been favorable to our position in the market. And the European Commission has actually published a proposal for the review of this directive, which will become a regulation, which means a directive enforceable in every jurisdiction, which actually goes-
... along the direction of travel. It shortens the maximum payment times for the public sector. It increases the recovery cost from EUR 40-EUR 50 per invoice, which is quite beneficial for us, and in general, aims to make easier to enforce our claims towards towards the debt. We are still waiting for the EU EU Parliament and EU Council proposals around this regulation. We think the direction of travel there is in what we what we expected, and we don't see any backing down from the framework that has underpinned our business for so many years.
We are now at page nine, we start with payments business, with a strong increase in terms of revenues, and also it's important to highlight a successful acquisition of new clients for this business, with a positive impact going forward. We observed an increase in number of transactions that are higher 11% year-on-year. That has been partially offset by the decrease and the decline in checks receivable, but we are confirming the positive trend on the electronic payment business. So after that, the revenues grew by 14% year-on-year, reflecting the positive trend and volumes observed in terms of number of settlement and transactions.
For the liquidity coming from the payment business, we are now over EUR 3 billion, and it is higher of more than 50% year-on-year, thanks to the different balance and operational accounts that we put in place with our clients. For the security services that we have at page 10, and also for this business, it's important to highlight the onboarding of new clients from alternative funds and also the pension funds is ongoing, the activity in terms of Cassa di Previdenza. There are a lot of tenders open, and we are working also on that side.
In terms of assets under deposit, excluding Arca, there was a growth of 40% compared to the last year, with a positive net inflow of around EUR 4 billion in the nine months in 2020 and 2023. Excluding Arca, the revenues grew around 8%. In terms of deposit, considering the different situation, environment, situation in terms of asset allocation, depending also on the interest rate environment was the amount of deposit is down by EUR 1 billion at the end of September, but we have observed a substantial increase in October. So at the end of October, we are at EUR 2.7 billion of deposit.
About the cost that we have at page 11, we continue to maintain a stable cost income ratio at 40%, continuing our investments despite the inflation. Going a bit deeper in the single businesses, we can, we have an increase in terms of OpEx and D&A in the factoring, that are linked to the increase in the collection cost. Payments had an increase, but it's related to the increase of the volumes. And for the security services, we have a decrease of 19% year-over-year OpEx and D&A, thanks to lower direct costs and also the personnel expenses.
It's important to take in consideration that the Arca exit savings are on an annual rate basis, starting from August 2020 and 2023. In terms of the other, the corporate center, the other business unit, there was an increase in terms of OpEx and D&A, but half of this increase is linked to the contribution to the resolution fund, that is double at EUR 6.4 million, is double compared to the contribution of the last year.
Going to the next page, page 31, we have the balance sheet with that is as highlighted by our CEO before is declining the total amount of the balance sheet compared to the previous year, but we increase our loans and receivable portfolio and decline the bond portfolio. The cost of funding is lower than the leverage market reference rate. We don't have, we continue to not have ECB funding that must be refinanced. And it's important to highlight that the health of the portfolio yield is impacted by the fixed bonds that now are at the 20% of the total held-to-collect bond portfolio.
And the impact on the floating rate is that we will have in October we had an increase in terms of yield that is now at 5.14%, compared to 4.52% at the end of September. So this is also an increase on profitability going forward. In terms of asset quality, we maintain our excellent asset quality. We are at page 13. We need a slight increase in terms of NPL rate that is lower than the growth of our portfolio, and this has been driven by some past due in for public administration and also for the growth of municipalities in conservatorship.
Despite that, our non-performing exposure are at the 91% toward the public administration. The cost of risk declined to 6.3 basis points, and is also related to the fact that is mostly towards public administration, and excluding the public sector, the NPL coverage rate is at 76%. In the next page, we have a deep dive in terms of the Italian windfall tax. As highlighted before, the board decided to allocate part of the 2023 net interest income to a reserve. And this decision will not have any impact in terms of dividend payout ratio, and this thanks to our strong capital position.
The amount that we are going to allocate to reserve will be around EUR 24.4 million. Going to the next page, I've mentioned that our dividend policy has been confirmed. In terms of capital ratio, we have a CET1 that is above our target of 10%. It is at 15.5%, and we don't include the result of the first nine months of the year. In terms of RWA density, this is flat compared to the last year. In terms of dividend, it's important to highlight that we are going to apply a share buyback. This has been made to support our remuneration policy.
The expectation in terms of amount is for a maximum amount of EUR 8.5 million, with an impact in terms of capital ratio around 30 basis points. I leave the floor again to Max in order to going forward with the presentation.
Thank you, Giorgio. Before summing up the presentation, I remember we have started the appointment process for the board, which is due with the AGM of April. The board has decided to have its own slate, but as part of the process, as was published, the targets for after the self-assessment in October, has published its target for the qualitative and quantitative composition of the board, which can be found on our website. Presenting the size of the board, which recommends we kept at nine, the level of independence, the team commitment, the diversity, and the professional characteristics of the people of the directors.
In this context, our chairman has decided not to stand for re-election, since he's considered under the code of corporate governance, not independent anymore. And so, he has decided not to ask for an extension of his mandate. The process will follow with the selection process that will be conducted by the board in February, and the proposed board slate will be submitted to the shareholders in March for a target appointment of the board for April. If you sum up where we are today, on page 17, we continue to look at a favorable macro environment.
The low liquidity that we are seeing, the high inflation and high public spending, the pressure that we are seeing in increasing DSOs, are all favorable to the type of businesses we conduct. What we see in terms of economics, our funding has already been repriced. We are still repricing our assets, some of them contractually, like the bonds, some of them through negotiation with customers, and importantly, also through the lag time that it takes for the LPI rate to actually step up. So we have, as we discussed at the beginning, 50 basis points, which will kick in in the first of January. That's quite different from a traditional bank.
Our deposit beta is basically 100%, and therefore, we are still playing catch up on our, on the asset side of our balance sheet. The higher level of interest rate, the absolute higher level of interest rate, will underpin our future profitability. The fact that we have a sizable off-balance sheet fund, in terms of late payment interest and EUR 40, and that fund will actually continue to accrue at a much faster rate than the past, given that interest rate on NPI is at, now at a much higher level, is really an important driver for, our future profitability, but importantly, our future profitability well beyond the plan, the plan horizon. Finally-...
Remember the importance of the proposal of the European Commission on the NPI directive, which will underpin probably for a decade or more the way we conduct this business. Thank you very much for listening to Giorgio and myself, and then we leave the floor for any question you might have.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your touchtone telephone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. The first question is from Antonio Reale with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. It's Antonio from Bank of America. I have three questions, please. The first one is on the full year guidance. Secondly, I'd like to talk about any NPL transactions into your end, and lastly, on the just generally on the deferred component of your P&L. So starting with the first one, I mean, obviously, we know your business is highly seasonal. We've just entered sort of the last two months of the year, which are particularly important.
We've seen it over the years, if I remember right, historically, you've tended to deliver a quarter-on-quarter growth in net profit of between 65% and 67% in Q4 versus Q3, which would put you on a EUR 180 million net profit, which is at the sort of lower end of your range guidance, EUR 180-EUR 190 net profit for the year. Is that what we should expect for the year, sort of for you to be in that sort of range? Just a confirmation, any color you can share there will be appreciated. My second question is related, again, to the previous one, with the Q4 profit in focus.
You know, wondering whether you have any LPI transactions in the pipeline. You tend to frequently settle some client positioning to your end. I don't know if there is anything you can share with respect to what you see there in the pipeline as we approach your end. And lastly, particularly important for you, I think, we obviously we've seen a number of banks report this quarter, and a lot of them are looking for ways to lock the high levels of interest rates, while you, on the other hand, have a natural lockup with a significant portion of your P&L being deferred.
In fact, I see you have reached off-balance sheet LPI of in excess of EUR 600 million, looking at slide 6, and I see total between LPI and recovery costs of EUR 1.1 billion, which is a large 65% of your market cap. So, my question is, can, can you, can you remind us of the benefits that you're yet to sort of-- that are yet to be untapped here? And, when I look at recovery costs, I think, it refers to the EUR 40 invoice. I want to confirm that. And, what would that number look like if we were to include, an increase in the invoice value to, from EUR 40 to EUR 50 instead? Thank you.
Thank you, Antonio. Let me answer the question, please, if I skip some, I'd ask you to restate them if I missed them. Look, on seasonality, yes, the fourth quarter is always an important quarter for us, because we have a lot of transactions with debtors that can move the needle. That's why we have a range in terms of targets. We are quite confident to remain in that range, given what we see currently. We have a number of discussions with some large debtors that can underpin actually a pretty good result in the fourth quarter.
But that's something which is not driven only by us, but also the debtor decision to transact. We have, in the past, particularly in 2020, started a lot of legal actions, so they are coming to fruition, and that drives a bit more focus on the debtors, in terms of on transaction amounts. So that's what will underpin the fourth quarter results. Bear in mind also in terms of comparison, last year, fourth quarter, we still had a month of Arca. We had still the cost of part of the employee base, which was still there.
We don't have it this year, so we have a bit less levels, but also less cost in terms of like-for-like comparison. In terms of the LPI, the LPI fund, I think it's good to point out that number on page 6 of the presentation. If you look at the table, we are basically at, yes, EUR 1.1 billion of total funds, of balance sheet funds. That's almost EUR 150 million more than the previous year. That will continue to accelerate because that fund has been built up with an 8% CAGR, if you want, which was the rate we had on the LPI. Now, that is 12%.
So if you want the speed of accumulation at the same level of volumes, is 50% higher, and that will build up that fund quite fast over, I would say, the foreseeable future, compared to what we have seen in the past. Importantly, also, because of the dynamic on collection, what we haven't accounted for in the P&L, it's, as you see at the bottom of the table, at EUR 605 million, and that includes also the EUR 40, which is almost as what we had in 2021, but at the time, we had the entire EUR 40 of balance sheet.
So that give you a sense of how much value we are actually deferring, and I don't have here with me the quarter-on-quarter figures, but that's also probably a good reference point to see how fast we are starting to accumulate LPIs and 40 euros. What it means? It means that actually, because we account for only 50% of our rights, both on late payment interest and forty euros, and we collect roughly in six years the balance that will underpin our profitability for the next years, well beyond the business plan. So if you were to stop today growing, then we will have six years of growth in net income without doing much. Well, without doing much, we working on collecting the LPI.
I think that's something which is not necessarily appreciated, and it's something which is actually more important now, the rates are higher, and that value will accumulate going forward. In terms of the impact of the shift from EUR 40 to EUR 50 for the recovery rights. Look, I think the short answer is that a 25% increase in the value of those recovery per invoice, between what we accrued and we collected in the nine months to September 2023, they were on page six, second bullet point, EUR 17.1 million. Now, if you increase that by 25%, now that's the increase, and then you can annualize, and then we have the growth in the business.
So it's, it's actually material, and, because we book only 50% upfront, and we book the deferral, then, and, on the EUR 40, we're still catching up, if you want, even if we start to, to ask them only four years ago, now that's quite an important, drive of future profitability as well. Now, it will not be implemented today. It's a proposal. We think it will take, a few months before it becomes a regulation, and then probably there would be a year delay before the implementation. But over the plan horizon, we should see in 2026, the benefit of this new regulation and so I would say it's positive.
I flag also that the fact that the maximum payment time is shortened in healthcare, which comprises a large portion of our portfolio from 60 days to 30 days, it's also quite beneficial because it means that if payment times remain stable, interest rates will accrue, late payment interest will start to accrue earlier, and the invoice that now is paid at 58 days and doesn't generate EUR 40, now if it's still paid at 58 days, generates the EUR 40 recovery cost. So that's another boost that could happen. So we see overall the economics of our business improving, but importantly, also a full stability on the regulatory framework for a decade or more. Did I miss anything?
That's a big deal, thank you. No, that, that was all. Super, thanks.
The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon to everybody. I have two questions. One on the potential reform of the LPI directive into a regulation. You just touched at this point about the shortening of the terms of the payment, which, as far as I understand, is also based on your comments, would have a multiple impact on your profitability because it's increased the DSO, it increased the accrual period at a stable balance sheet, and could also generate incremental recovery rights, as I struggle to believe that public administration entities would be in the condition to halve the time of payment. So I was wondering what you can share with us, a rough idea of what could be the...
All else being equal, if we were to apply this regulation in the nine months, what would be the impact on your, on your top line, all else being equal? The second question, I've seen that you mentioned that in October, there has been a quite significant increase in the deposits from the securities services business, from EUR 2.3 billion-EUR 2.7 billion, if a notice is taken. I was wondering whether this increase comes out of new clients that you have added, or to existing clients which are changing their asset allocation and allocate more assets to cash. Thank you.
Thanks, Giovanni. On the second question, it's mostly customers allocating more assets to cash. It was actually a bit of a minimum at the end of October, at the end of September. That's why we flagged that we went back to a bit more normal situation at the end of October. In Securities Services, we're actually quite bullish on the outlook for that business, given the tendering process around the Cassa Previdenza and where we are positioned there. And that should drive further liquidity coming into that business. In terms of the late payment regulation, look, as you said, we don't believe that the public sector will change behavior.
The public sector pays late, not because there are APIs, which only apply actually to only a small portion of the overall receivables, but for lack of cash or timing mismatch in the public sector transfers or administrative inefficiencies.
So assuming that the public sector will pay with the same, with the same time, if we take simply the effect of the increase in rates, sorry, in the increase in the recovery costs, EUR 40-EUR 50, and the shortening of payment time on the healthcare side, all other things being equal, on the first full year of implementation of the reform, which might be 2025 or more likely, the full year of 2026, it will have now between EUR 12 million and EUR 16 million of impact. That's what we estimate. That clearly does not take into account the deferral component of that, which will have a further boost, but six years later.
So in your model from 2032, and there we should be more around the EUR 25 million mark, clearly profit before tax. The pure profit is not zero incremental cost to us. So it's clearly a positive. It's not in our target numbers because we can't control what is the regulatory outcome. The good thing is that, as I said, the regulatory direction of travel is fully positive for us.
Thank you very much for the disclosure.
The next question is from Andrea Lizzi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. The first one is just a confirmation that you reiterate your guidance for the full year 2023, between EUR 180 and EUR 190, so an acceleration in the last quarter. The second question is on a net recovery, which were EUR 4.9 million in the first half. Now, I see it is EUR 4 million. So which trend should we expect there, and so what are you observing? The second, the third question is on volumes that are growing well 7%, but in the plan, if I'm not wrong, the CAGR was 10%.
So just to understand if this is consistent with your expectation when designing the plan, and where you can find further room to optimize your cost structure and in which business units, and if you can anticipate some of the impact that you expect from the renewal of the banking contract. Thank you.
The renewal of the?
Banking contract.
So we don't have an estimate yet. I think what we see in the renewal of the national banking contract is the tendency for banks, for the first time in a few years, where they're making any money, to actually increase their cost base, which I don't think is necessarily very sensible long term. I think the good thing for us is that we have a multinational platform, so actually, we can decide where to hire people depending also on the different local contract conditions. And so an effort we have started, frankly, also to make use of the talent we have across the many countries is to centralize group activities also in Sanità.
So take advantage of the talent we have and the more flexibility we have, which I think actually our competitors can't do as effectively as us. So a more rigid contract potentially has a paradoxical effect to strengthen our competitive position given our footprint. In terms of volumes, look, we indicated a long-term growth of 10%+ in loans and receivables and on volumes. What we care about is actually the growth in in loans and receivables because that's what we, in a sense, eat in terms of earnings. On volumes, we're actually quite bullish overall even around that.
If you look at the underperformance comes from Poland, where volumes there are actually new loans, so we don't need actually to have necessarily a large growth because they have a longer duration than the existing portfolio. So we can keep accumulating even if growth is not there. In fact, you see minus 7% in volume, plus 7% in loans. And then Spain, you have the effect also of the injection of the cash from the central government, which sometimes takes out what is included in the portfolio of our clients before we buy those receivables.
So, as I said, I think the major focus should be on loans and receivable, but overall, we are quite positive on the 10% growth plus for our business going forward. Any other question, sorry, which I-
No, if you can, I missed the answer to the first question, so just if you first question that was made by Antonio. So if you can reiterate the guidance of EUR 180-190 for net income in 2023, and the trend in net LPI over recovery, given that I saw a decline between nine months and the first half, and so which trend do you expect here? Thank you.
Yes, the guidance, we confirmed it. I said we always give a range because at the end of the year, we have a number of discussions around that. In terms of LPI over recovery, let's say, look, it's a function of how much we negotiate with the debtors. It's a function of closing the discussion. We don't transact at a lower recovery rate than we historically have done. So it's a matter of what you conclude with the debtor. If we don't transact, simply we pile up the late payment fund that we have on our balance sheet.
Super clear. Thank you.
The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Just a couple of questions from me. Well, the first is again on volumes. Looking at the third quarter, there are some changes. In particular, the PF segment in Italy looks a bit light in the quarter, while, if I'm not wrong, you have started to buy again on Eco bonus. So if you could elaborate a bit on these trends. And the second, just if you could say again the impact, the potential impact, of the change in the directive. I didn't catch the number. I'm sorry. Thank you.
Yeah. Look, on Eco bonus, in terms of volumes, yes, we have a bit more spare capacity, so we've had a bit more transactions this quarter. But they're not actually massive in terms of amount. In terms of overall growth, when we provide the split, healthcare and public administration, you need to bear in mind that the view towards the debtor is not the view towards the client. So the split is not a function of what we do necessarily, but what our clients sell to and what are the portfolio they are providing us to buy.
Certainly in public administration is a huge amount of market is still unaddressed, and that's an area where we need to push in Italy. Historically, we had a much stronger position in the NHS, which shows also in our results. But that's we need to always bear in mind that that effect in terms of depending on what are the portfolio submitted to us, and not a conscious choice one way or the other. In terms of the numbers, as I said, in terms of what we expect of the reform is for also for the first year of full implementation of the reform would be between EUR 12 million and EUR 15 million of PBT.
For the run rate, assuming the same recovery over recovery rate on EUR 40 and in NPIs around EUR 25 million.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you have a question, please press star and then one. For any further question, please press star and one. The next question is from Michele Baldelli, with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. I have just a question about the new regulation. If you were to do a sensitivity with the current conditions, with the, of course, days to pay, currently, of how much could be the impact to your business if it will be approved, with, the details that you just disclosed? Can you give us, a sort of, some call about it?
Michele, those are the exact numbers I mentioned before. So if we assume that payment behavior of the public sector does not change-
Mm-hmm.
If then the LPI kicks in at 30 days, and not 60 for healthcare, which is the first change, and therefore, we also get the EUR 40 at the 31st day since the invoice is issued, and the EUR 40 becomes EUR 50, then the effect is between EUR 12 to EUR 15 million in the first full year, and around EUR 25 million when we get to the run rate in terms of over recovery. So, first year, plus six years.
Okay, thank you very much for the specification.
I know that means that I'm we're pushing you to have a DCF that ends at least on the sixth year, but that's a good exercise to do.
Thank you.
Again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Massimiliano Belingheri and Piergiorgio Bicci for any closing remarks.
Thank you for joining us, today, and for your thoughtful question, as usual. We now turn to running the business for the busiest season for us, and we will speak again in three months' time. Thank you very much.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.