Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 4, 2021

Dear, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the VUGO BOST Second Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions via the telephone May I now lead you over to Yves Muller. Please go ahead. Thank you, operator. This is not Yves Muller. This is Christian Stoehr speaking. And I would like to welcome everybody Who dialed in for today's Q2 conference call. So thanks for dialing in, ladies and gentlemen. Good morning to all of you, And welcome to our Q2 2021 financial results presentation. Today's conference call will be hosted by Yves Miller, CFO of HUGO BOSS. In light of our commitment from Michelin, at today's upcoming Capital Markets Day, We will keep our Qiu2 conference call somewhat shorter than usual and focus on the financial performance during the 3 month period. Before we get started, I'd like to recall that all revenue related growth rates will be discussed on a currency adjusted basis unless otherwise specified. Let me also remind you that during this call, we kindly ask you to limit your questions to a maximum of 2. Please also keep no more strategic questions for today's Capital Markets Day. So let's get started. And over to you, Yves. Thank you, Christian, and welcome, everybody, from my side. In the next 15 minutes, I will present to you our Q2 operational and financial performance before discussing our outlook for the 2021 fiscal year. After that, we will open the floor to your questions. As announced already back in July, we have seen a strong acceleration in our business recovery during the Q2, both from the top and bottom line perspective. In particular, as well as further progress made along vaccination campaigns fueled consumer sentiment across the globe. On average, around 20% of our global store network was temporary to Q2 with the vast majority Of all retail stores back in operations towards the end of the quarter. Consequently, revenues more than doubled the strong rebound of our top line as it translate into group sales remaining only 4% below the pre pandemic level of Q2 2019 and a strong acceleration quarter on quarter. As our recovery was broad based and clearly noticeable across all regions, let's take a quick look at our geographies first. While sales more than doubled in Europe and even more than quintuple in the Americas, Revenues in Asia Pacific were up by more than 50% in Q2. On a 2 year stack basis, Sales in Europe, therefore, remained only 4% below 2019 level as the lifting of lockdowns and temporary Store closures over the course of the second quarter supported the business recovery. On average, Only 25% of our store base in Europe was closed in Q2 as compared to a closing rate of up to 50% in the Q1. Performance was particularly strong in the U. K, where stores reopened mid April, enabling our business to even exceed 2019 levels, up 7% on a 2 year stack basis. And while both Germany and France also recorded strong sequential improvements, I'm all the more encouraged that several markets in Eastern Europe, above all Russia as well as the Middle East, Continued their strong double digit growth trajectory compared to pre pandemic levels. Also in the Americas, sales remained only 5% below 2019 levels, benefiting from a further uptime demand, limiting the market sales decline to 6%. In this context, it is particularly encouraging that our U. S. Retail business returned to growth in Q2, posting a mid single digit growth versus 2019. This development was strongly supported by our initiatives to change the overall brand perception and product to mid double digit growth on a 2 year stack basis, while business in Canada continued to be impacted by temporary store closures also in Q2. Finally, on Asia Pacific, where sales were down only 3% as compared 2019. In particular, Mainland China continued its strong double digit growth trajectory with revenues up 28% against the prior year period and 33% on a 2 year stack basis. This implies the further acceleration as compared to the And while also Australia exceeded pre pandemic levels by mid single digits, business recovery in markets such as Japan And Southeast Asia progressed comparatively more slowly, reflecting temporary lockdowns as well as the ongoing lack of international tourism. Let's now turn to our sales channels and starting with own retail, where sales more than doubled as compared to the prior year. Consequently, own retail sales remained only 5% below 2019 levels with a sequential improvement recording throughout the quarter. And with the vast majority of our own retail stores back in operations towards the end of the quarter, our own retail business Even returned to growth in the month of June. Moving over to our online business, Which continues its strong double digit growth trajectory also in Q2. Sales on hugoboss.com and on partner websites Operator in the concession model recorded growth of 27% against a particularly strong comparison base, Translating into a triple digit growth on 2 years stack with revenues up 122% as against 2019. Finally, on wholesale, where sales also more than doubled, up 170% versus the prior year, translating into a slight decline of 2% against 2019 levels. This performance, 1st and foremost, reflects our partners' strong demand for the pre fall and fall winter 2021 collections of both BOSS and HUGO and is a great testimony to the success of our collections. In addition to that, the consideration share is attributable to additional business Entering into these additional partnerships Not only allows us to further improve our inventory situation, but also to introduce our brands to a new younger consumer. Now make no mistake, as with any partner we work with, also here we will ensure that our brands and products are presented in the truly premium brand environment. Carefully selected, the right partner is and will continue to be A clear prerequisite also going forward. This is no different in the case of these partnerships. Let's conclude on our top line with a brief review of the performance of brands. Revenues For both BOS and HUGO more than doubled compared to Q2 2020. On a 2 year stack basis, sales for BOS declined 5%, While HUGO returned to growth, posting 2% growth versus 2019. Momentum for both brands, Casualwear offerings further accelerated in the 3 months period with revenues up double digit on 2 year stack. Formal Wear sales also record a sequential improvement quarter on quarter, benefiting from some pent up demand for occasions and businesswear. With this, let's now move on to the main P and L items. Starting with the gross margin, which totaled 61.2% in the 2nd quarter. While this represents an increase of 6 70 basis points year on year, Mainly reflecting the non recurrence of negative inventory valuation effects recording in the prior year quarter, gross margin As well as some ongoing promotional activities in the marketplace, there is also the aforementioned off price wholesale business that limited the gross margins recovery to Moving over to the operating expenses, which grew by 25% on an underlying basis when excluding the prior year's impairment charges. The increase is mainly attributable to the non recurrence of rental and payroll cost savings that we realized in the course of last year's global lockdowns. And while Selling and distribution expenses increased 33% to last year, also reflecting higher marketing expenses, Administration expenses were only up 4%. As compared to 2019 levels, however, operating expenses decreased 6% as we continued to tightly manage our costs in the quarter. Overall, our strong top line growth As well as the ongoing strict cost control led to significant bottom line improvement with EBIT totaling plus EUR 42,000,000 in the second quarter as compared to minus €250,000,000 1 year ago. Obviously, and for the sake of transparency, The earnings development was also supported by the non recurrence of impairment charges as well as negative inventory valuation effects recorded in the prior year quarter. Finally, net income totaled €25,000,000 in the second quarter. Let's now turn quickly to the balance sheet, Starting with trade net working capital, which declined 12% versus the prior year. An increase in trade receivables, Mainly reflecting the recovery of our wholesale business in the Q2 was more than compensated by higher trade Payables as well as a lower inventory position. The latter saw a decrease of 3%, reflecting ongoing tight inventory management as well as positive effects resulting from the additional off price business. Moving over to capital expenditure, where investment activity picked up noticeably over the course of the quarter. As a result, investments totaled euros 27,000,000 in Q2, which is almost 70% above the prior year level. As in previous This quarter's investments were primarily related to our global store network as well as our digital capabilities. In this context, The particular highlight has been the opening of our 1st BOSS flagship store in Tokyo's popular Ginza district back in June. This brings me to free cash flow. Driven by the strong bottom line increase as well as the improvement in trained net working capital, Free cash flow significantly improved and returned to pre pandemic levels, totaling €134,000,000 in Q2. To finish on our financial position, net financial liabilities decreased 42% to €138,000,000 when excluding lease liabilities in the context of IFRS 16. Finally, I would also like to highlight that the additional loan commitments Totaling €275,000,000 that we secured back in 2020 expired in June without having been drawn at any point of time. Now ladies and gentlemen, before opening the floor to your questions, allow me to briefly comment on our outlook for the remainder of the year. In light of the strong performance in the Q2, we are confident that our overall business recovery will all continue also in the second half of twenty twenty one. This said, we must not forget that the environment we operate in continues to be confronted with Elevated uncertainty. Accurately predicting the further cause of the pandemic and its impact on our business during the next 6 months It's virtually impossible, in particular with regard to the ongoing global spread of the delta virus variant. Right as we speak, the global resurgence of COVID-nineteen has led to renewed store closures in several markets in Asia Pacific, And no one knows which markets around the world might experience similar restrictions during the next couple of months. Now while our guidance for fiscal year 2021 might be perceived as rather conservative by some of you, It reflects our confidence of continuing our strong business recovery also in the second half of twenty twenty one, while at the same time factoring in the uncertainty that remains elevated for the company. Overall, we anticipate group sales in fiscal year 2021 to increase by between 30% 35% with a strong contribution expected from all regions. At the same time, EBIT is forecast to amount to between €125,000,000 and €175,000,000 To complete the picture, CapEx is set to increase to a level of between €100,000,000 and €130,000,000 While we expect trade net working capital as a percentage of sales to improve to between 21% 23%. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes my prepared remarks for today. I'm already very much looking forward to welcoming all of you at our virtual Schuco BOSS Investor Day later on today. But first of all, I'm now happy to take your question. Thank you. We will now begin our question and answer session. The first question is coming from Elena Mariani from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning, Yves. Thanks very much. I will stick to 2 questions as requested. My first question is on gross margin. So in the second quarter, you've talked about quite a few moving parts. Of course, we have The non recurrence of the inventory evaluation effects from last year, which we know about, but I was wondering whether you could elaborate a little bit more On the higher sourcing costs and the higher level of markdown activity, because of course, gross margin remains Quite a lot below 2019 levels. So how much do we have to think about the different weightings for these elements? And then Is this headwind going to continue in the second half of the year? And is this the reason why your second half of the year EBIT guidance was not upgraded when you upgraded your top line. And then my second question is about Still your guidance for the 2nd part of the year, but more on the top line. As you mentioned in your remarks, some of us might have perceived the guidance to be slightly conservative. And of course, it implies a slowdown in your top line development in the second half. Is this more the result of you being conservative given the macro picture? Or have you already observed some sequential slowdown in the 1st weeks of Q3? Thank you. Yes. Good morning, Elidon. Thank you very much for your questions. So Talking about the gross margin first. So if you would say clearly, we have this kind of Improvements versus 2020, they were related, of course, because of the inventory devaluations that we did last year. So this had, of course, a tremendous effect. But if you compare the deterioration versus 2019, I would assume that 2 third of the effect, the deterioration versus 2019 is coming from markdowns and off price wholesale business And onethree is coming from higher sourcing costs, mainly related to higher freight costs. Regarding the top line development for the second half of the year, I think like I said during my short presentation, I think we have to view the second half of the year Because we all know that the uncertainty still remains, you might have noticed from other competitors that, Especially in the Asia Pacific regions, we have noticed some lockdown situations in countries like Thailand, Like Malaysia and some parts of Australia. So for the time being now, the store opening rate for us in Asia Pacific is around 90%. So I think we have to be prudent because the pandemic is not yet over. I think we have to always consider this in our guidance. On the other side, I can say that regarding our current trading, if we see the month of July, we've I have I said during my short presentation that the development in retail was even positive in the month of June in terms of exit rate, And I can confirm today that we kept this kind of development in July. Great. Thank you. Just a small follow-up on the gross margin moving parts. So should we expect the same headwinds So like we always said in terms of where we see us overall in terms of 2021 margin, We see that we come in between the gross margin of 2020 2019, and this has Somewhat not changed after the call we had back in May. So this is, I think, the overall orientation that we have Because we see that actually the higher freight costs that this is that this will not disappear in the next 6 months to come. Understood. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, Elena. The next question is coming from Thomas Chauvet from Citi. Please go ahead. Good morning, Ivan and Christian. My first question on your admin expenses, they've been down versus 2019 level in each of The 4 quarters of last year, but also in Q1. In Q2, they're returning to slightly above 2019 level. Is this the way we should think about H2 and going forward that your admin costs now have reached a floor and they're going to start to increase slightly again as obviously the business recovers and you need To invest in some form of central cost. Secondly, on the wholesale performance, Q2 was broadly in line with 2019 levels, well done for that. You're talking about new business with European on and off line retailers. Can you indicate which are These key new accounts and perhaps how much they contributed to the EUR 190,000,000 in sales in the period. And just to follow-up on Elena's question on gross margin. You reiterated the guidance halfway between 2019 2020 level, 61% to 65% was those 2 limits. So the consensus is halfway, Exactly in the middle at 63%. Looking at H1, gross margin is marginally above 2020 levels. That looks perhaps 63% A little bit high, would you agree if? Thank you. Thank you very much. And bonjour, Thomas, thank you very much for your questions. So first of all, regarding admin Expenses, first of all, you have to consider that in these kind of lockdown periods that we alluded to in Q1 and the Prior period, we had some short time work, and so these kind of effects helped us. On the other side, rest assured That we expect overall going forward that we keep tight cost control as well Administration Expenses. And if you can see it, it's from an absolute point of view. It's just a slight increase in comparison to the prior year period. There might be some effects coming from higher share prices that relates to some bonus payments as well As you might expect, so these were the drivers actually of the increase in Q2. So nothing that I worry about and more a kind of In our reflection of the share price development that we had to include because of our LTI program. And then regarding Q2 in terms of new business regarding wholesale, so the 2 Dominant players that we have is was Best Secrets and Vonta Prive. So these are the 2 Major off price wholesalers, which are new, and we like we said, we recorded a low double digit number with this regard in the wholesale. And regarding gross margin, I just can repeat myself. We are guiding to or between 2019 2020. It's a rough number because the second half of The year, there will be still a lot of moving parts, especially when it comes to the business. We expect The strong holiday season and back of the year, so there are still ongoing moving parts. And for the time being, we stick to this Orientation number between 2019 2020. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is coming from Jurgen Kohl from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, sir. Yes, good morning guys. Thanks very much. Two questions. First one again coming back on these off price retailers. Is that a Rather short term strategy in order to get in order to clear excess inventories, which or where you have actually done a good job in Q2? Or is that Something where you want to be positioned longer term as well as a kind of a second distribution channel for inventories. And secondly, I was wondering, you talked about a good demand and a good order book for fallwinter. Have you noticed already retailers asking for pre shipments or earlier shipments, especially for the fallwinter collection. Thank you. Yes. Good morning, Jurgen. Thank you very much for your questions. So regarding off price wholesale business, I think it has 2 major effects. One is Clearly, that we want to clear excess inventories, which has been the case because of the situation Of the unexpected long lasting lockdown in Europe, this is point 1. But point 2 is, I mean, with these two customers that I just alluded to, You clearly have the possibility as well to have the opportunity to sell products to younger customers. So we can broaden our customer base There as well and for the time being, we had good experience and no negative repercussions on other customers and actually Working in a good premium brand environment. And secondly, regarding the wholesale There are preorders. Yes, I can confirm that we had really very strong preorders for the second half. Not all the not wholesale partners that are requesting Earlier shipments, so we are more or less what we have planned so far in order to when it comes to deliveries. Very good. Thank you very much. Looking forward to hear from you later on again. Thank you very much, Jorgen. The next question is coming from Antoine Beuch from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning. It's Antoine at Exane. Two questions. First of all, I'd like to follow-up, sorry, on this On best secret developments in Q2, you don't seem to want to quantify them. To what extent they boosted the performance? And maybe that would be a reason why you I expect a huge acceleration in the second half. Yes, so maybe Some kind of quantification on how much they've counted. And again, to what extent it was really A way of clearing inventory and then it would be that would be used, but in a more moderate way. And my second question relates to the online performance, up 27%. Is that a good number? So first of all, Is it or is it just because that I mean, the slowdown is more that you no longer have the sort of external factor, which The conversion from wholesale account to e concession. Yes. Bonjour, Antoine. Thank you very much for your questions. First of all, regarding Vans Privet and Best Secrets, I just can repeat This was a low double digit €1,000,000 number in the wholesale numbers. And clearly, this was related to excess inventories, and I that we continue the cooperation with those partners, but that we will reduce the scale in the ongoing quarters. So this is I think the qualitative remark that I can do. Regarding online sales, I think you always Have to consider that we have had a very, very strong comparison base. If you might recall, Q2 2020 was the quarter of the So that was actually the only quarter the only channel where we could sell. If you might recall, that was plus 74% versus 2019. So if we compare our performance versus on the 2 year stack, there's only A slight deceleration from 133 percent to 122%. So clearly, I think a very high number. But I can rest assured that really we want to push the pedal to the metal regarding our online net sales. We always said we want to increase At least at 40% CAGR each year, and this is actually the direction that we are taking. And for the time being, we are above this mark if you take the first half year results. So overall, I think much more potential regarding online if you talk to the managing board. And I think we make big progress. I think one number that has to be considered, and you will see this during our Capital Market Day as well This afternoon, I think digital online sales will be of great importance. And you can see that already Our digital sales, so wholesale combining retail was at 21% of group net sales. So clearly, we more than doubled the net sales in comparison to 2019 to increase here our digital performance. And I think we're making big steps regarding. But on the other side, we still see a lot of potential when it comes to digital sales in both channels. Maybe just one follow-up on my small clarification of what you said earlier. Regarding July, you said it was positive. I mean, do you mean was it positive? So total sales in July were Above 2019 level, is that how we should understand it? When we talk about retail, it was I can confirm this that this was positive versus 2019. Thank you very much. The next question is coming from Volker Bossel from Baader Bank. Please go ahead. Yes. Hello, Jim Perm. Thanks for taking my questions. On China, so have you seen a sales downswing in April on the back of the consumer Then there is some Western brands. And for clarification, are your influencers in the moment allowed to promote HUGO BOSS Products, again, as normal and your growth dynamic in China as of today in line to your Normal expectations, let's put it that way to get a feeling where do we stand here in regards to China? And the second question will be on your partnerships and capital With Russell Athletic and NBA in the 2nd quarter, not just in regards to sales, also in regards to brand awareness, Do you have any results or data on hand which underpins the success of the capital order in order to strengthen the relationship to Yamal Consumer Group, for example? Thank you. Yes. Good morning, Volker. Thank you very much for your questions. Regarding Mainland China, I can just clearly confirm, and you've seen our numbers in the Q2, The positive momentum that we all have is continuing. If you look at it as a kind of Q2 or if you look at our growth rates, our growth rate in Q2 was even higher in comparison to Q1. So on a 2 year stack basis, we were growing by 33%. So we view this as very positive. This is above our own expectations, and We still have very positive momentum when it comes to China. Regarding the partnership With Russell and NBA, what we can clearly say is that we for example, with the NBA in the U. S, We had a full price sell through above 60%. I think this was very positive in terms of commercial success of this NDA. So there is more to come in the second half of the year. We have a new second cash flow together with NBA that will only be in the U. S, but also in Europe because basketball, especially the younger audience is on book. So we expect more sales with this regard. And actually, if you look especially to the new cohorts, the new customer that you generate, clearly, Especially with NBA and Russell, we see that more than 2 third of the net sales that we are doing are below 35 So this is clearly, I think, a positive result. And you can see if you talk about the U. S, Specifically because that was related to the MBA, you can see that actually our retail sales were mid single digit growing in the U. S. Also in Q2, whereas wholesale was still clearly negative. So you can see that in retail, we can react much faster in terms of what we can sell and this kind of change towards casualwear can be very fast Executed with retail, and so we actually that NDA was as well a trigger, and Russell was a trigger that we returned to Mid single digit growth in the U. S. In this market, so a big contributor for us. Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks, Thomas. And looking forward to hear you later again. Thank you. Thank you, Puka. The next question has come from Rogerio Fujimori from Stifel. Please go ahead. Hi, it's been Christian. Rogerio from Stifel, and thanks for taking my I have just one on marketing expenses, which were I think EUR86 1,000,000 in H1 or 7.6 percent of sales, obviously higher than in H12020. How should we think about marketing to sales in H2 to drive brand heat in the top line? Is 8% a reasonable level for the full year or should we expect any intensification of marketing activities? Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thank you. Yes. Good morning, Rogerio. Thank you for your questions. So regarding I think To take this kind of marketing expenses to net sales, I think it's for the time being Still difficult because in the first half of the year, you might notice, of course, there are a lot of lockdowns In brick and mortar business, so I think it's a question of the denominator. But clearly, I mean, in the second half The year we want to invest into our brands, and you will hear this afternoon actually where we are going in terms of our brand Expenditures for the next 5 years. So you will notice already in the second half of the year that we can expect Some further marketing investments, and I think you will see a kind of gradual development from the former 6% to this 8% in the next 5 years to come, but more to come this afternoon. Understood. Thank you. The next question is coming from Philipp Frey over at Warburg Research. Please go ahead. Hello, gentlemen. Just one question. Can you elaborate a bit on the extent to which temporary cost savings reduced your cost Based in the Q2, so how much said otherwise, how much would your cost base go up just If you back our temporary savings for store closures, short term labor whatsoever, temporary rent reductions, all this kind of stuff. Good morning, Philippe. Good morning. So actually, What we can say is that, of course, this kind of short time work, this very short time short Term related cost savings that they were fading out already at the end of Q1 and only they were only in the beginning of Q2. So it's actually it's getting to a kind of neglectable amount. So you can see that this is Already normal run rate that we have seen. As a matter of fact, for example, in our headquarters, We stopped the short time work with the 1st April. So you could see that here, we were already back on full speed actually on 1st April for the full Q2. But if you look, for example, in our retail in Germany, it was still closed for the 1st 6 weeks. So the people who are still on short term work regarding, for example, in Germany, but this is now completely fading out and the effects Getting more and more neglectable. Great. Thanks a lot. Thank you. The next question is coming from Manjari Dhan over at RBC. Please go ahead. Hi, morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I just Firstly, you've mentioned the new customer cohort for the NDA and Russell collaboration. Are you seeing those new customers also buying in the main BOSS collection? And Secondly, on the dividend, is this fair likely to give a dividend payment this year? Thank you. Good morning, Manjari. Thank you very much for your questions. Yes, we can clearly see that the younger customers that they put a lot of units into their barks Basket, because it's very much online related as well. So the good thing is we know the data. We know how the consumer behaves. And actually, after their 1st purchase where we're retargeting them and they are now becoming very satisfied BOSS customers. So we are really very happy with New cohorts that we generate new and fresh momentum into our brand. And actually, this was the full intention that we were doing. And regarding dividend, I think this is something we will talk about this afternoon. So please Please perhaps be a little bit patient for in order to put this into the context of the full strategy. Thank you. The last question for this session is coming from Karina Schutte over at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Hi, thank you. Just two brief follow-up questions from me, please. Firstly, you've talked a little bit about the U. S. And how it's gone back to positive growth in the retail channel in the quarter. Can you just give us a little bit more color on the trends by sort of category casualwear versus formalwear? And also an update on the retail conversions that you're doing in the region? And then secondly, on online, You've always talked about the triple digit growth on the 2 year stack. Could you give us any more color in terms of your own website versus marketplace partners and the performance there? Thank you. Yes. Good morning, Carina. Thank you very much for your questions. So the first question was related to retail trends, right? U. S. Retail trends, right? Casual versus formal. So what you can clearly see is and this is we want to be a clear 20 fourseven brand in the U. S. And overall globally, I think this is what we intend to do. But in the U. S, we were We and this is what we did already in the past. We changed our product offering in retail. So if you now look at the Sales team that we have, especially in the U. S, we reduced our offering in formalwear and clearly scheduled wear. And there have been really some tectonic shifts because this is regarding retail 50% to 25%, and casualwear is now at around 50% coming from 25%. So Just we just flipped these kind of numbers in the U. S. Markets. So and this was a big driver, of course, of the performance that we're having in retail. I have to conclude that wholesale is lagging behind because The people, because they were still buying this formalwear like 6, 9 months ago. But right now, When I look at the selling periods going further, what we sold now in terms of pre spring and springsummer 2022, We are very satisfied with the wholesale orders that we received, and they clearly this clearly underlines that we are on the right way regarding the U. S. Market. And regarding online, we have overall The overall business was And the high teens like for like positive. Very good. Well, thank you, Yves, very much for your detailed answers. And thanks, ladies and gentlemen, for dialing in. We are running out of time because in 15 minutes from now, we will distribute our press release on our Strategic priorities and ambition for the years to come. And so please look at that. And as Ivers already mentioned, we are very much looking