Earnings Call: Q3 2017

Nov 2, 2017

And welcome to the publications of HUGO BOSS Third Quarter Results 20 17. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mark Langer, CEO. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you very much, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our Q3 earnings conference call. I'll focus my presentation on our most recent financial performance. However, before that, let me tie in with our Investor Day in August and discuss a number of initiatives meant to bring life to the changes to our brand strategy. In the last few months, we highlighted the new BOSS and HUGO collections in a number of high profile events and campaigns in order to build awareness and customer understanding for the refined positioning of the 2 brands. Starting with our BOSS menswear business, we followed up on the statement we made with our presentation at the New York Fashion Week in July with a global social media campaign. Under the headlines of Own Your Journey, Formula 1 World Champion Lewis Hamilton and actor James Marsden presented their favorite pieces from the current collection. Boss womenswear was one of the hot spotlights at the Berlin Fashion Week, where we unveiled our new gallery collection at the Berliner Modes Arlong. In cooperation with Christina Arp, Editor in Chief of Vogue Germany, we curated a spectacular presentation in the former Saint Agnes Church, which received a lot of media attention. Finally, Fugro built on the momentum it had created with its June fashion show in Florence with a visit to Berlin, where the visitors of the Bread and Butter by Zalando event had the opportunity to experience the new HUGO firsthand. Following the idea of see now, buy now, consumers were able to purchase online all stars presented during the fashion show immediately after the event. In terms of financial performance, we made good progress in the last 3 months too. Sales momentum improved further, in particular, in own retail. The regions Europe and China recorded healthy increases, but also our U. S.-owned retail business returned to same store sales growth in the quarter. As a result, 3rd quarter group sales increased by 3%, excluding currency effects. Impacted by the appreciation of the euro against almost all major currencies, revenues were up just 1% in reported terms. By region, Europe built on the progress made in the 2nd quarter. 3rd quarter sales were up 4% in euro terms and 5% on a currency adjusted basis with similar growth across own retail and wholesale. In Own Retail, performance in the region improved sequentially compared to the 2nd quarter levels. Supported by more favorable industry conditions in August September, trends in the Central and Southern market picked up compared to earlier in the year, and also the U. K. Continued to do very well. U. K. Sales were up 9% in currency adjusted terms, highlighting the strength of our local business as well as good demand from tourists. The latter, however, weakened towards the end of the quarter. Sales in Germany and the Benelux markets grew by 5% and 4%, respectively. France recovered from the declines in the Q2 and was up slightly despite ongoing challenges in wholesale. In the Americas, business was down 8% in euro terms and 4% on a currency adjusted basis. Good growth in Latin America and Canada only partly compensated for lower sales in the U. S. In the U. S, our business declined 9% on a currency adjusted basis because of double digit decreases in the Wholesale segment. The sales decline in wholesale continues to reflect the strategic reduction of off price business as the difficult market environment as well as the shift of demand for cold weather product into the Q4. Nonetheless, we continue to be on track for our guidance of a high single digit sales decline in the U. S. Wholesale in 2017, so we expect performance to be better again already in the Q4. The U. S. Owned retail, the positive trends from previous quarters continued. Comp store sales growth was driven by strong double digit increases in online as well as higher revenues in freestanding stores, which outperformed outlets in the quarter. Improvements in retail management and the expansion of casualwear and athleisure in our own stores, even before the launch of our new collection for springsummer 2018, played a key role in this respect. Sales in Asia were down 2% in euro terms, but 4% above prior year levels in local currencies. China remains the region's growth engine despite a slight moderation of trends against an increasingly difficult prior year comparison base. Sales in this market were 5% above prior year levels, driven by good growth in Mainland China, partially offset by weaker performance in Hong Kong and Macao. Looking at the other major markets of the region, Sales in Japan increased at a double digit rate in currency adjusted terms, supported by strong tourist demand in the outlet channel in particular. Australia was flat, impacted by traffic declines in on retail and a weak wholesale business. Group wide, on retail sales increased 3% in euro terms and 6% in local currencies in the 3rd quarter. On a comp store basis, the owned retail channel was up almost 5%, a further improvement compared to 2nd quarter levels despite a slightly more difficult comparison base. As mentioned in my regional comments, Europe and the Americas made good progress compared to earlier in the year and recorded mid single digit comp store sales increases in the quarter. The growth rate in Asia was slightly below the other two regions. In all three regions, better conversion rates and higher volume drove growth. Average selling prices declined slightly. This pattern is very much in line with the expectations underlying the changes in brand strategy. We are convinced that a stronger focus on casualwear and athleisure and a better balanced offer ranging from upper premium to luxury price points will drive volume growth and more than offset lower average selling prices following the mix changes I just highlighted. By retail format, directly operated stores were the best performing channel on a comp store basis. Growth rates in online and the outlet channel were slightly lower. The online business was up 6% in the 3rd quarter, further benefiting from the improvement measures we had started applying earlier in the year. The offer is better geared to the specific needs of our online customers now, and we have made good progress in search engine optimization. In addition, enhanced CRM capabilities allow us to reach out to consumers in an increasingly targeted way. Looking ahead, we are working on further improvements of the hugoboss.com site that will go live in the Q1 of next year. While the overlook and feel is not going to change much, we will adjust navigation and site structure to improve usability and to create 2 separate brand worlds for BOSS and HUGO. Over the next few weeks, we will also implement a simplified checkout process as well as launch an Android version of our mobile app, complementing the existing iOS offer. Beyond growing our e com business, we have also progressed with the integration of omni channel elements in physical stores, a key consideration in the development of our new store concept. We have now started renovating the first few stores with the design we presented you during the Investor Day in August. Over the course of the last few weeks, we reopened our stores in Geneva and Birmingham, both now outfitted with a new store concept. Next on the list will be Dubai, where we will complete the refurbishment of the former franchise stores in Dubai more shortly. Based on a detailed analysis of the performance of these remodel stores, we will deploy the new concept in all openings and refurbishments planned in 2018. In the Q3, we opened 3 new freestanding stores, all located in Asia. Year to date, however, the number of freestanding stores declined by a net 7 to 435 at the end of September. Most of the closures were decided when we reviewed our network in summer 2016. By the end of this year, we'll have discontinued operations in 15 of the 20 stores we had designated for closures in total. For the remaining 5 stores, we successfully negotiated more attractive rent terms and decided on far reaching changes to the operating model. In 2 flagship stores in Greater China, for example, we reduced our floor space by more than half by giving up an entire selling floor. Contrary to what we had originally planned, we hence decided to continue operation in these locations. Initial results confirm that profitability of these stores has improved visibly compared to prior levels. Turning to the wholesale channel. 3rd quarter sales were down 3% in euro terms and 1% currency adjusted, largely due to the aforementioned declines in the U. S. Where the European wholesale business was up at the mid single digit rate. Unavoidable differences in the timing of deliveries compared to the prior year were negative in the Americas and a positive in Europe this quarter, but the net effect was small. Looking out into next year, we have just started the order season for our preform 2018 collection. The second collection designs under the new brand strategy. Given that we are only halfway through the process and in light of the relatively small size of this collection, I ask for your understanding that we will not disclose any quantitative feedback today. Similar to what we reported in August, the feedback of our partners on the changes in our collections and brand strategy continues to be clearly positive. However, they also remain very cautious when it comes to the overall industry outlook, irrespective of some better data reported for Germany and other European markets over the summer. Based on our conversation, the majority of the department store representatives expect challenging market conditions to continue, so we forecast buying budgets to remain tight also heading into 2018. On a brighter note, the license business continues to go from strength to strength and had a stellar performance again in the Q3. Sales were up 24% due to strong double digit growth in the fragrance business in particular. Similar to previous quarters, strength was broad based across the product portfolio, including BOSS and HUGO as well as our men's and women's fragrances. Sales in the total BOSS business increased 3%, excluding currency effects in the 3rd quarter. Performance was particularly strong in athleisure, with still retails under the name of BOSS Green in 2017. Here, sales grew at a strong double digit rate. Businessware and Casualware revenues were up too, albeit at a more moderate levels. Q1 sales grew 4%. Good growth in Europe was partly offset by declines in the U. S, where we have started to change our distribution in wholesale. In the process, BOSS is taking over spaces from HUGO in the wholesale channel, where the BOSS brand proposition is a better fit with the account's target customer. Expect this effect also to weigh on HUGO sales in 2018 as we consistently align the brand's distribution with its fashion forward contemporary proposition. By gender, the 4% growth of our menswear business was driven by improvements in the collection as well as the shift of marketing expenditures and, to a lesser extent, retail floor space. The latter came at the expense of our women's wear business, where sales declined 1%. Rest assured, though, that we will not stand still to also grow this part of our business as part of our commitment to bring HUGO BOSS back to profitable and sustainable growth. Turning below the top line. Gross margin was up slightly in the Q3. This was largely due to channel mix that means the outperformance of the owned retail business over wholesale. However, the positive effect was largely offset by currency translation effects related to the strong euro, which we generally do not hedge. All other factors are broadly margin neutral. This includes rebate management, where gains in Asia were balanced by slightly higher markdowns in Europe and the Americas. Operating expense growth was moderate also in the Q3. Nonetheless, increases exceeded reported sales growth. On Retail, ONI played a minor role in this respect, given the benefits from rent renegotiations, the closure of unprofitable stores and limited expansion. Instead, marketing investments in the context of the brand repositioning and the expansion of digital teams and systems are exerting structural cost pressures, this mitigation will remain an ongoing challenge also in 2018. As a result, 3rd quarter EBITDA before special items declined 1% compared to the prior year quarter, amounting to €143,000,000 Currency effects had a more severe negative impact on operating profit in the 3rd quarter compared to earlier in the year as a result of the euro appreciation versus major currencies over the last 6 months. While the D and A charge and the financial results remained largely unchanged, we released €5,000,000 of provisions made in connection with the store closure program initiated in 2016. The release was recorded as income in the special items line. The one hand, we negotiated lower than expected early termination payments in some locations that we exited. On the other hand, and as I had outlined earlier, we decided against closing a handful of stores where the operational and financial outlook has improved materially since summer last year. Offsetting these positive factors, we booked a higher tax rate this quarter 2017 compared to 24% in 2016. This outlook reflects changes in German tax law that came into effect this year and will lead to a higher taxation of the group's license income in 2017 and beyond. Net of these two effects, group profit remained virtually unchanged compared to prior year levels and amounted to €80,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. From a regional perspective, profitability in Europe benefited from the good sales performance in both distribution channels and disciplined cost management. In the Americas, margin performance suffered from sharp sales decline in wholesale. And in Asia, segment profitability was affected by negative currency effects and rising on selling and distribution expenses. These factors more than offset gross margin benefits from a reduction of rebates in own retail. Ladies and gentlemen, I focus my comments on the Q3 in order to give you a good understanding of the most recent trends. Let me also summarize where we stand after the 1st 9 months of the year. Group sales were up 2% in euro terms and on a currency adjusted basis. NIO performed broadly in line. Sales in the Americas declined 3%. Sales in Asia Pacific were 5% ahead of the prior year, both in currency adjusted terms. EBITDA before special items was up 1%, slightly below sales growth. A better gross margin was offset by higher operating expenses in relation to sales, so that operating margin declined by 20 basis points to 17.4%. Net profit was up 43% following the nonrecurrence and even partial reversal of prior year onetime expenses. Let me also give you some more color on key balance sheet items and cash flow performance. At the end of September, inventories continued to be well controlled. Group inventories were down 3% in euro terms and stable in local currencies with a similar performance across the three regions. Despite strict inventory management, overall trade networking capital grew 5 percent on a currency adjusted basis. This was due to an increase of trade receivables solely related to a different timing in the collection of cash from some large partners. At the time of our reporting, the receivables position has almost normalized again, we do not expect this effect to recur going forward. Irrespective of it, the rolling 12 months average of trade and working capital over sales declined to 19.3%, 40 basis points below the prior year level. Investment decreased 29% in the 1st 9 months. The decline was primarily due to on retail, reflecting fewer new store openings, but also phasing effects related to the renovation of existing stores. As we have communicated in August, we shifted a number of renovation projects to 2018 to allow incorporating the learnings from the first rollouts of the new BOSS store concept. Primarily because of better earnings and lower CapEx, free cash flow increased 29%, even including cash outflows of around €25,000,000 related to store closures. As a result, net debt declined strongly compared to the prior year period. Based on a better than expected year to date sales performance in On Retail, we are upgrading our top line outlook today. We upped the outlook for all three regions. Sales in Europe should increase at the low single digit rate, while the Americas should deliver a broadly stable performance. Asian revenues are projected to grow at a lowtomidsingledigit rate, all on a currency adjusted basis. We now expect the owned retail business to grow at a mid single digit rate on a currency adjusted basis. On a comp store basis, sales should increase at a low single digit rate, in line with the year to date performance. Unchanged to early in the year, auto revenues are forecasted to decline at a lowtomidsingledigit rate. License sales will be up double digits. In sum, this will result in a low single digit increase of group sales on a currency adjusted basis. Previously, we had anticipated a stable performance. The group's gross margin should increase slightly year over year. A positive channel mix effect and the non recurrence of prior year inventory write downs would compensate for negative currency effects. We now expect EBITDA before special items to remain stable year over year, reflecting the midpoint of the previous guidance of a performance between minus 3% and plus 3%. This guidance includes a negative impact from exchange rate movements, which will have a greater effect on earnings than we had originally forecasted. Net income is expected to increase at a double digit percentage rate, while the growth will be slightly lower in the full year compared to the 1st 9 months. Last but not least, our balance sheet and cash flow outlook remains unchanged. Capital expenditures will amount to between €130,000,000 €150,000,000 Free cash flow will exceed prior year levels and reach around €250,000,000 Ladies and gentlemen, our financial results and outlook demonstrate that we are on track to achieve the goals we set ourselves or in some parts to even exceed them. I'm pleased with the momentum we have built in on retail in particular, but I also acknowledge that some market related tailwinds contributed positively to performance in the last 3 months. We will not be able to influence overall market trends. Instead, we focus on what is in our own hands. With a view to the next few months, this is, above all, building further momentum around our brands. The first deliveries of our springsummer collections will become available in our stores at the end of this month. This collection is the first one fully reflecting the refined positioning of BOSS and HUGO as well as the quality investments we are making to upgrade their value proposition. We are also busy preparing for the opening of the first HUGO stores in key European cities such as Amsterdam, London, Paris and Berlin from spring 2018 onwards. In addition and as discussed, enhancing our digital presence is a key priority. Beyond the optimization of hugoboss.com, digital transformation also includes the further rollout of omnichannel services, which is in full swing as well as utilizing digital capabilities for key operational processes. See the digital HUGO showroom for which we are taking orders for the first time right now. Finally, we innovate the way we operate with a number of initiatives meant to drive customer centricity and organizational agility. With so many activities requiring the full attention of management, I'm pleased to be able to pass on my CFO responsibilities shortly. As of the beginning of December, the current team, consisting of Bernd Hake, our Chief Sales Officer Ingo Wills, our Chief Brand Officer and myself as the CEO, will be complemented by Yves Muller as our new CFO. As announced a few months ago, Yves will join us from Tivo, the German coffee and non food retailing company, where he has held the CFO position for the last 11 years. I look forward to having him on board. Yves is going to play a key role in our financial communication going forward, of course. In the meantime, however, let me answer your question on today's set of results. Thank you, Mr. Our first question today comes from Susana Pugh from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. I have three questions, please. So first of all, on the gross margin, it has improved slightly year on year, but with such impressive like for like growth, I think one would have perhaps expected a slightly more positive impact from channel mix. So I was just wondering whether you'd be able to walk us through any negative factors in the gross margin that would explain that, but also the positives? Secondly, on China, so the plus 5% growth, that seems maybe slightly weaker given the numbers reported by some other companies in the sector. Now I understand you had slightly a tougher comparable basis, but it seems that for many other companies, the comparable basis didn't really matter. So any additional comment would be helpful. Perhaps you closed some additional stores, anything like that. And then just finally on the EBITDA guidance. Now with the upgrade of the sales guidance for the full year, What is the main reason for not upgrading the EBITDA guidance? Is it just purely FX related, some additional brand investments or anything like that? Thanks, Susanna. And let me start with the last point because we'll come back to the impact of exchange rate movements also in your first question. So you're right that we have while we have become more precise on our EBITDA guidance, which we now expect to be stable. And one of the two reasons we gave as an explanation that we see the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuation versus the euro. So this has played a role, and I will come back to that also on your question on the gross margin. But secondly, we also have seen a quarter with some quite some investments, not only on CapEx but predominantly from OpEx, from upping our game in the marketing. So this was a quarter where we had 2 major fashion events plus a smaller one for both women's wear, also demonstrating our commitment to this line. So but it was not only the shows that we did for Cuba and BOSS, But we also used generated a lot of digital content, predominantly, to create awareness for the new offering on the BOSS side. And this comes together with the introduction of some important new services that we have introduced just so taking our Centimeters execution in house has started to pay off very nicely. So these investments are clearly playing a role in improving our like for like trends beyond the improvement in collection. But they come at the cost and this has seen in an investment we have seen in the Q3 in our marketing spendings. Just on your question on Greater China, you're right, we've benefited or we've visited quite some sizable acceleration after the price adjustment in 2016. So we expected this growth trend to moderate. But we continue to see a quite difference in performance between Mainland China and Hong Kong and Macau. Please keep in mind that our Mainland China business compared to many other of our peers is relatively small. So the impact is still feasible and we feel it and especially the store closures that we are downsizing, closures plus downsizing in China, plus the more muted development in Hong Kong and Macau has overall dampened a bit the positive momentum we've seen in Mainland China. As I said, gross margin is also affected by exchange rates. So this is the explanatory factor that we have not seen what you probably calculated as a pure channel mix effect, the growth differential between retail and wholesale, which clearly was positive. So this was also on the gross margin as dampened by exchange rate fluctuation, which had an impact on our gross margin. We don't break out the quantitative impact, but it has been measurable in its impact on gross margin development in the Q3. All other factors, so maybe just to finish on that rebates, inventory write downs or rebates were neutral, inventory write downs, not in the Q3, but in previous quarters had a slightly dampening effect in previous year. So but it didn't play a role in the Q3, so this was neutral. Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. Just one follow-up, if I may, on Hong Kong and Macau. I mean, I understand that these were the 2 regions that seem to have put a little bit of pressure on the performance in China. But on the other hand, I mean, what we've been hearing is that both Hong Kong and Macau have been improving a little bit. So do you think that the market is still very volatile and brands perform very differently? Or is it something quite specific to your positioning? Is there anything else you could maybe say about Hong Kong and Macau? No. I would also say that we have seen a sequential improvement in both markets, but they're still lagging the Mainland China performance. And it's so I would subscribe to the view that we've seen a stabilization, even a slight improvement in both markets. In particular, with Macau, we have seen that visitors are coming back. But we noticed that also in terms of quality of visitors and quality only in the sense of spending power in no other dimension, but also that the improvement in visitor numbers to both cities has not translated to at least for our business and we have heard similar observation from other fashion brands that's not improved the buying trend. Also keep in mind that the price differential also is part of our strategy between Hong Kong and China now smaller than it was historically, which also might have played a role that people will come to a lesser degree to Hong Kong backhaul to buy apparel products than in the past. Thank you. Our next question today comes from Thomas Shavat from Citi. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, Marc. I have three questions, please. The first one on your retail like for like, you said largely driven by volumes with ASP slightly down. You had some tailwinds, as you said. How did you see the Q4 and October trend developing? It looks like German apparel data was poor. There were quite a lot of negative headlines on U. S. Retail landscape and mixed China Golden Week. Secondly, on wholesale, you're about to deliver spring summer 2018. Are you able to share with us some of the feedback from the key wholesale partners in terms of how they think of the product assortment, the style, the quality pricing, etcetera? I know it's early to discuss full winter, as you said, but is there anything you would do differently in that campaign to ensure the order book is up rather than flat and so you can gain market share from the competition in a challenging environment in department stores as your partners seem to budget for next year? And finally, a question on retail and your new store concept. Can you maybe give some feedback on what type of sales uplift you're seeing? How do these store differ in terms of traffic conversion ASP, maybe average basket size? What is the overall CapEx budget for next year for these new stores and perhaps the CapEx per store? Thank you. Yes. We are quite happy with the first indicator feedback we received on the new store concept. So for us, as a positive, It works. It has become far more technical than the former store concept. So there are for those of you have a chance to visit it, it's either in Geneva or in Birmingham, but more will come. We'll discover that we have now incorporated what we call a seamless consumer experience when it comes to omni channel services, smart mirrors and others. So that's a part more technical. It's not only that it looks flawless in terms of execution, but also functionality. Qualitative feedback from industry experts and first consumer feedback has been positive, but bear with us that we don't have yet meaningful data on sales uplift to draw any conclusions. We're happy with the build out expenses. It was also an important factor for us. So we're confident that investment costs, as we described also for the Investor Day, will be efficient for the new BOSS concept. We'll also start now to get the first learning of FENHUGO. As I said in the call earlier, we really expect first deployment of the new concept in the Q1. On the wholesale, actually, Thomas, there's not too much new flavor to be added. We were quite happy with the springsummer order intake, giving or keeping in mind that our wholesale partners are now buying a collection where they have no reference, especially to the new casualwear and athleisure offering, which we have integrated into the BOSS overall line. But these people do recognize the quality investments that we have done, which clearly includes the value. We have, in this context been able to increase prices in the Central European markets, Germany, Austria and Benelux, which we also explained to you back in August, we were quite pleased that the European price harmonization was something received well also from our wholesale partners. We are all waiting now for the 1st sell out data, be it in our own retail business or for the part that our wholesale partners have bought. And I guess that after when we meet again for full year results, I think that's a good time also with fallwinter 2018 orders in our books to be more precise on our outlook and the feedback from our wholesale counterparts. Like for like outlook for the Q4. Yes, as I explained at the end of the call, we upped slightly our outlook on the like for like, not to the Q3 levels. I think this was, as we tried to explain, also helped by some technical factors and an underlying, call it, tailwind condition in some markets, which we have seen also this commentary from some German magazines on the German markets in October might have reversed slightly. So I think our full year guidance of lowtomidsingledigitlikeforlikedevelopment for the full year is probably also a healthy proxy for the remainder of the year. But there's still 2 very important months ahead of us. We are happy with the momentum building in our e commerce business, which you remember has been weakening in the Q4 last year. So this fall is probably in the category of easy comps to beat. But as Susanna was asking earlier about the strong momentum in China we had last year, this makes up clearly a more challenging comp to beat. But overall, you see us quite confident that we will deliver on the slight increase like for like guidance also into the Q4. Thank you, Marc, and good luck for the Christmas season. We will now go to our next question from Elena Mariani from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon all and thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to go back again to your margins guidance and upgrade in top line. Is it correct to say that effectively you're seeing more investment needed from an OpEx perspective to deliver your top line. So effectively, your operating leverage equation has changed a little bit over time. What I mean is that perhaps now to see some margin improvement, you would need to see a like for like that is mid single digit or above, given that you need to support that with more marketing expenses and digital investments as well. Because my sense is that what you're doing right now is not really a point in time investment, but is more like your recurring way of doing your business. So this basically would imply that also next year you would need a like for like a little bit higher to see margin expansion. My second question is on the trends you're seeing in formalwear and casualwear. I was looking at your comments on and HUGO and what you're saying is that effectively in BOSS performance was mostly driven by the green brand and the Athleisure offering. What's going to happen when this line gets discontinued? And what was the underlying development of your Formawear lines? And lastly, a question on online sales. I've noticed that after a bit of volatility, they were up just 6%. You seem to be one of the very few players that is not seeing high double digit increase in online sales. So what do you think is missing there? And what are your expectations for the coming quarters and next year? Thank you. Well, thank you, Elena. Let's start quite some complex question you put in front of us. So the like for like minimum to maintain profitability in our retail business or to grow retail profitability, this where we should start the discussion, hasn't changed in our view over the last couple of quarters. So we have seen a mitigation in rental inflationary pressures in most markets. So we do depending on the market, need a low to mid single digit like for like to be marginally accretive in our retail business. All other factors on our overall business are never the same, which has been clearly a dampening factor now in the Q3 were two factors that we don't expect in the same magnitude going forward. 1 is the impact on exchange rates. I'll come back to that in a second. And also the tepid effect that I also described on the wholesale development in the U. S. Market. So overall, the like for like for our retail business needed to maintain or improve retail profitability hasn't changed much. There are limited effects what we can do on the translation impact of an appreciation of the euro versus other major currencies. This had a very quite measurable impact on the profitability development of the 3rd quarter. That's why we highlighted this element driving up or dampening the EBITDA development also in the Q3. I agree with you that there's a new normal in terms of marketing allocation between classical print and online. We are following other industry trends. And I agree with you that this is a new level of marketing spending that we also should plan for as we also guided you and the other participants at the Investor Day that this is probably also the new level to be expected in the outer years. So moving on to your question on online. After we had a very difficult start to the year, I'm quite pleased that we have now recorded 2 quarters of a return to growth in our e commerce business with an even stronger performance in the North American business. We continue to see a strong demand for HUGO BOSS merchandise. We highlighted our cooperation with Zalando and the HUGO and that our products are being bought either on our own website or from multi brand or e commerce offers. But there's still a number of things that we have to do to improve performance of our own e commerce business, which we are making progress. So we expect a further improvement in our e commerce performance also as we go into the Q4. And we have to work intelligently with the asset that we have an advantage for us relative to online pure play to have an intelligent combination of services. We call it omni channel services between our physical stores and our online. And here, we would claim that Hugo Boss is already leading many other branded players in terms of integration of these services between its physical store network and its e commerce side. So we are clearly committed to the sales channel where we have an unprecedented control over key steps of the value chain. But we need I agree with you, we will not be on our business. In terms of cattlewear versus formerwear, just to be clear that you are not falling into a trap, we have no plans to discontinue BOSS Orange and BOSS Green. Both lines will be fully integrated with spring summer 'eighteen deliveries into the BOSS overall offering. So we will even strengthen our offering in this casual wear and leisure offering with the integration, which allows us and we are very pleased with first indicative results to that, that we have now the ability to offer these former quite separate brands and now also in our own stores again and benefit from this trend of casualization in demand. So we will take a major step forward with the integration of Boss Green, Boss Orange with the springsummer 2018 collection, which allows us to bring even more of these categories into our wearing occasion into our own stores, which fuels our confidence that we have a sustained growth potential in the Menswear, Casualwear segments also into 2018. Thank you. Just one quick follow-up. So what you were saying about the operating leverage equation is that if next year we're going to see a low to mid single digit like for like and the normalization wholesale, that would be enough to see some margin upside? Depending on some other factors that you ignored now. So we do see right now that at least for the 1st 6 months, even if you freeze current exchange rates, euro versus many others, this will be have a depressing factors on earning development at least for the 1st 6 months like we have seen on the in the Q3. But if you exclude the exchange rate effect, I would agree with your statement. Thank you very much. Thank you. We'll now take a question from John Guy from MainFirst. Please go ahead. Thanks very much, Mark. I've got three questions, please. Maybe just starting with gross margin, If we think about the investments that you're making in price and obviously skewing a little bit more to entry, casual wear, etcetera, into next year. Is it fair to say that there is no gross margin uplift effectively in 2018? So at best, we should expect flat gross margin. My second question around is around CapEx, capital allocation effectively. You have deferred some of the renovations this year for obvious reasons around the new store concepts. So what sort of meaningful uplift should we expect in terms of CapEx? I think you've talked about not reaching peak levels of €220,000,000 probably be above the €130,000,000 to €150,000,000 Can you give us an idea in terms of where you think CapEx will grow? Are we talking about a 25% uplift next year and then normalizing thereafter? And then you mentioned that out of the 15 I think the 15 out of the 20 stores, the underperforming stores that you would have closed down by the end of the year and the 5 stores that you're keeping open, I think you've mentioned that you sublet some of the space to some other brands, I think in China in one of the flagship stores at least. Could you let us know which brand has taken some of the space in the stores that you're effectively subletting? Thanks very much. Thanks, John. Let's start with the gross margin topic. And I think there was we tried to shed some light on this topic also at the Investor Day because as you rightly pointed out, springsummer 2018 is a lot of factors will be have an impact on our gross margin development 2018 versus 2017. The investment into product quality is one aspect to it, which already started to impact Q3 2017. But also keep in mind that we have both, in fact, increasing, decreasing prices with the price harmonization in Europe. So there is the final price adjustment from the German market to a lesser degree from Benelux and Austria, but there are also price decreases in other markets, in particular the Swiss market and some others. Depending on pricevolume sensitivity, this can have a neutral, slightly negative impact to our gross margin also in 2018. The same applies to not all investment in our the quality initiatives that we have started with the springsummer. It's the first fully impacted one, which might have a stronger impact on gross margin than what we have seen in the Q3 with the fallwinter 2017 deliveries. Overall, we expect and this is what we said back in August that the improvement that we do forecast to come from further channel mix improvement to be reinvested into quality in a way a price adjustment is also. So you could indirectly subsidize as a quality investment On the other hand, so in short, we do expect that these factors will have a dampening factor on the channel mix effect that gross margin might be flattish or only slightly improving in 2018. As always, we'll give you more light on that as we have more visibility on the final COGS at the beginning of 2018, where we also have more data on the volume reaction from our wholesale buying partners and first market reaction. It's also a bit difficult to forecast. Let me just quickly go on to CapEx. So it will be definitely be more, as we said, because we lowered our CapEx outlook initially from $150,000,000 to $170,000,000 this year to 130 to 150. I would prefer not to give you a now exact range already at this point in time for 2018, because it might limit the necessary flexibility that we need to have to as we see coming back to Thomas' question earlier, if we see a very positive uplift on the new store concept, we will push and decelerate rather than the rollout of these renovations. If we see that there are certain learnings to be incorporated, an improvement to the concept, then we will pursue with a more normalized speed. So let's work with the range between €150,000,000 to €200,000,000 at this point in time, and we will provide you with more details on the CapEx needs for 2018 in March of the next year. Yes, not all of the 5 which we have decided to continue were reduced in size. So we just gave 2 examples. And part of the agreement is since we never disclosed which location we meant to resize, We also have a non disclosure agreement with landlords not to provide any more details on who is subletting or who is typically, we do not sublet. We give this basis back to our landlords who typically then decide on their own which is the right tenant for them on the floor. So I can't give you any more details on that. Okay, great. Thanks, Mark. Maybe just one tiny follow-up on the gross margin. The flattish guidance in 2018, is that incorrect currency? Well, currency could, as we all know, play in both directions. It has played against us in 2017 so far. It has been also a dampening factor in 2016 to a lesser degree. So a further appreciation of the euro could change that. We have so far opted against price adjustment in these markets. The British is a predominant one. I think we have been asked on this occasion previously. We have no plans to change our price positioning in the U. K. At this point in time. However, further deterioration in the U. K. Pound, we might change that or we'll see we'll monitor very closely what competition is doing. But you're right, this is before any further appreciation of the euro versus other currencies. That's very clear. Thanks very much. Thanks, John. Thank you. We now have a question from Parel D'Hania from RBC Capital Markets. Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I was just curious if you could provide a bit more color on the like for like evolution and in particular, the contribution from volumes versus ASP. Obviously, you're saying that ASPs are slightly down, but could you give us an order of magnitude how much ASPs are down and how much volumes are up to drive towards the 5% retail like for like? Yes. Typically, we don't break it down in terms of visitors, conversion rates and ASP. But the question is, is this did people buy down? Or did they find the product, find the idea they were looking for because we were too pricey in our offering before? So it's a tricky question to answer. I wouldn't trade it, but they took a positive advantage of the widening of the offering in the entry price point. Also to the question, I think, that Elana asked earlier, with the ability to introduce a broader category offering to it. We are now serving these customers maybe not so much only on the casualwear opportunities, but these customers now have found also attractive casualwear offering to our stores. So you have to be careful. It's not necessarily we are not a one category firm where you say, well, we sold less expensive outerwear jackets than last year. It can also be a mix between that people have now bought more items to complement the look. So that's why we do not necessarily see a lower average selling price as a negative indicator to the performance of our business as this comes in the combination of better sales densities in our stores. So overall, we were, as I said, almost up 5%, in particular in our full price stores. And as we said, the ASP decline was only marginally negative to an otherwise positive trend. I think what we we were especially pleased that we it's one of the first quarter it is the Q1 where we're able to hold the negative traffic trend in our own physical stores, which we see also as encouraging sign that it's the offer, but maybe also the services that we have introduced a better Centimeters activation that will people now back to our stores where they hopefully will discover with a new bought store concept something that will connect even stronger with than in the past. Okay. That's very clear. And then just following up on CapEx, if I may. So obviously, with some of the refurbs pushed out into 2018, with that revised CapEx guidance, how many stores do you plan on refurbishing on an annualized basis? Just thinking around the potential short term disruption to the network as you roll out the new concept. Well, we have been always a bit careful that we put the total number of renovations and there's a wide range of renovations only if the store is closed for, I think, at least 2 weeks and will be not be part of our like for like going forward. So as we try to execute in a smart, intelligent way. But if you take into consideration not only our freestanding stores but also our shop in shops, we would probably have a number of more than 100 POS that we will renovate in the year 2018. Fantastic. Thanks, Marc. You're welcome. Thank you. We now have a question from Juergen Kulp from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Yes. Thank you very much. First of all, Mark, just a general question on individual projects that you have already worked on that might go into 2018 in terms of your omnichannel activities, in terms of IT, logistics, your mobile activities, I. E. A new mobile app for Android. What are these projects have you already worked on or completed? And if you look into 2018, what do you think is an additional work that you need to do here in terms of OpEx lines that will affect the P and L? Also from the perspective of the lease contracts that you have renegotiated with your landlords, how much of that is already completed or how many maybe additional benefits could we expect in 2018? That's the first one. The second one on HUGO, I think the brand dynamic or the momentum slowed down in the Q3. You gave a little bit of comments here in this respect, but maybe some additional comments as to what really led to that slowdown? And lastly, maybe more with respect to the U. S. Market, how is your current feeling about the market, especially your business with the department stores? How do you see the development there, especially with your core client Nordstrom, for example? Yes. Thank you, Jurgen. Well, there's not one project where you say, okay, once this is completed, be it from a temporary project resources or from a CapEx need, then you have kind of like installed a new norm that will where you can basically pause on these merits. That's not how we see it. But the omnichannel rollout, which is happening as we speak, will have be fully implemented by and I think was the timing we gave you also at the Investor Day at the end of Q1. Then you have to fully effect to that that we hopefully see the further acceptance from core customers. Our sales associates are getting increasingly familiar with that so that we see it will be an integral part of our offering. But clearly, competition doesn't stop there. There's also already ideas to use our own retail space that at least in major metropolitan areas for same day delivery options, something we are currently evaluating very carefully to see whether that's a business case also for HUGO BOSS. And there are other elements, be it on a curated shopping services, which also offers very nice combinations between utilizing our physical store network with our digital capabilities. So as you can see, and I'm just highlighting a very few of a long list of ideas that we see being already present in the market or being developed at HUGO BOSS that could have a meaningful and positive impact on our retail performance. But it's not only front end. It's also, you mentioned logistics and IT. We were very pleased with the first test of our first completely digital digital showroom for HUGO in Berlin, which we completed for pre fall 2018. So there was a first digital show for Hubert was where we had no physical samples available. It was just fabrics and watches. And it was something which was not only digital presentation of the collection, but it was fully integrated into our SAP system with automatic availability checks. So when the customer left the showroom, he had a full visible image of what he bought or she bought with the confirmation that whatever they ordered will be available at the promised delivery day. So fully integrated with the same functionality like we had with our physical orders. And we're clearly now looking at these services to be brought to further showrooms. So here, we clearly have new and improved benefit, but we come which nicely comes together with savings because this will, over time, allow us to reduce our costs associated with physical samples, a quite sizable cost element in our business system. So we try to be smart on where we allocate and which project to work on. 1st and foremost, to be customer centric and the benefit, but also keeping in mind that we need to run a lean organization to fund some of the new products I just highlighted. Also on the retail side, I wouldn't say it's a buyer market right now. Prime retail location are still in high demand, but we see also when we now execute relocations, extend rent agreements that the inflationary pressure has slightly muted. But we need and I think this was a question earlier asked about minimum like for like. There remains an inflationary pressure that we need compensate with an outperformance in like for like. Otherwise, we will not improve our retail profitability just from a renegotiated rental terms in some markets. On HUGO, we are quite pleased what we have seen so far in order intake and on retail development, in particular, in the European markets. So there's already a long pipeline and long list of interest to go into shop in shops with the brand. Our market leaders have seen our new retail store concept, which is quite CapEx efficient, while it has some very interesting functionalities. So as I said, we will have the first examples of first HUGO freestanding stores at the end of the Q1, and we are really looking forward to that. But at the same time, we'll discontinue a HUGO distribution where we think it's out of sync with the brand mix of this partner. So we're especially in the U. S, some department stores where HUGO was just out of sync with the other brands offering. It was part of our former strategy to use HUGO more on a price entry strategy rather than from a succession statement. And that's what we're reversing now. With the strengthening of the BOSS entry price points, we're able to introduce in some accounts the BOSS brand. In others, we will discontinue this business relationship quietly because there's no offer in the HUGO BOSS over range to be present in these accounts. And this is also my answer to your last question on the U. S. Market. We are making I'm pleased on the feedback on the first progress we are making in some categories with Nordstrom. We are far off from former glory that we enjoyed at this account. But the momentum is right now on our side. So we need to be up our game, be it on the formalwear, be it on the casualwear, part of it. But in terms of collection feedback, I'm very happy that with our target accounts, we will see a return to an improved performance to what we have seen in the last two, two and a half years in the U. S. Market also for HUGO BOSS, be it the BOSS core brand, but also for HUGO, for Bloomingdale as we see continue to see a very interesting business potential. Okay. Very good. One very quick follow-up. The mobile app that you're going to launch on Android, would that be a combined BOSS and HUGO? Or do you plan to have a separate mobile app BOSS and HUGO individual? We are continuing to use the hugoboss.com. But if you go to the page today, we are not quite happy with the brand separation on-site. So in terms of product description, navigation, it's still very much integrated. But with the new, it will be still the hugoboss.com, but basically, we have 2 options to follow. It's just one potential navigation. But if you're and we can actually track that. So if you have clicked on the HUGO banner, you will automatically be directed to HUGO sub world within hugoboss.com and vice versa to make live navigation for you even more convenient. But we will not separate the web sites to have a BOSS or a HUGO website. It will be the hUGO bus.com also going forward. Very good. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question from Andreas Inderst from Macquarie. Please go ahead. Yes. Hello, everyone. I have a few questions. The first one on your comment in terms of capsules that you increased the number of capsules and will have a stronger focus on that in your collections. Could you please quantify the potential impact of these capsule collections as a percentage of sales of the seasonal collection maybe for the medium term? Then my second question is on Europe, quite a pleasing development in the 3rd quarter, better than I hoped for. Clearly, there was a wider support. However, maybe you can elaborate more in which categories did you outperform and in which regions beyond the UK? And my third question relates to FX. Could you please quantify the FX impact on EBITDA in the Q3 and for the full year, which came in unexpected as you highlighted that? Thank you. All right. Well, capsules, they come in all sizes, shades and colors. So there's not one capsule. So for example, the cooperation that we have with the Mercedes AMG Formula 1 team, and we call it the motorsport capsule, it's commercially quite relevant one or that we have with the German national football team or with Bayern Munchen, where we have capsules which have a strong commercial bias to it. And we are thinking we have similar ideas to utilize our cooperation with the British Open when it comes to gold thing. And maybe to a lesser degree, we're thinking about a sailing capsule also to make even strong because there was strong demand after the success of Alex Thompson in 2016 and 'seventeen that there is that this is a sport and that's an inspiration by selling that people would like to see also in our commercial collection. And there are others. Take the one we did with Vogue at the Berlin Fashion Week, the capsule gallery collection, which clearly has more aspirational fashion inspired appeal to it, where we have commercially a smaller impact to that, but it will help us to create awareness, ready a competence that will give us editorial coverage. So as I what I tried to explain is that capsules will have a continuum of a high commercial relevance and a high editorial fashion competence relevance, and we need to be smart to combine that. And I can assure you that this is very high on the agenda with my 2 board colleagues, Ingoevils, creating the ideas and also from Bernd Hage, who is balancing market demands regionally and by branch ender to have these the calendar filled with relevant capsules. On Europe, as I said, don't get too overexcited with the positive momentum we have seen in the wholesale on the single quarter, this was clearly ahead of the underlying trend. But we were positively surprised by a very robust like for like development, which was especially pleasing at full price outperformed outlet. I think that was high on our agenda, and we are very pleased that we achieved that. We clearly have now to stabilize this trend that we will support and grow our highest margin sales channel in retail. But besides the U. K. Market, which clearly stood out by the reasons all other European markets also performed very nicely. The German markets, which was, I think, overall was in the black numbers, was particularly nice. And I think it's just a number of factors, be it the collection, be it services, be it maybe a more effective marketing, which has contributed to this positive development. On the exchange rate, it's something that we have now seen. It has been now a burden for almost 18, 24 on our earning development. And in the past, at least on a margin perspective, it has been neutral. So the absolute profit level has been down since we guided for an absolute profit development this year. We shed more light on the impact in the Q3. What we are now considering is also to provide you more light, but we will probably do with our guidance for the full year 2018 to give you also coming back to John's question earlier that we give also margin projection, be it on gross margin or be it on EBIT level, excluding or constant exchange rates. And but then we would do this also going forward not only to explain it if this has a negative impact because there was also in the last 8 years in my role as CFO, I also have benefited from exchange rates where we might have not always disclosed the positive impact to you in the same way like we're now disclosing the negative one. So it could, from today's perspective, at least where exchange rates stand today, will have a dampening effect on the first half year of twenty eighteen. That's relatively sure if exchange rate even would stay at this level. A further deterioration could have an even stronger negative absolute profit impact in 2018. So that's these are factors which we have to deal with. Beside price adjustment, there's limited ways how we can compensate these exchange rate effects via hedging. But we will keep you posted and we'll come provide you with more information probably at the analyst conference on the topic. Yes. Thank you. My final question on the distribution in the U. S. Your off price adjustments, the cleanup, has this been now completed? Well, we initiated this process in the first half of twenty sixteen. Major accounts were discontinued over summer 'sixteen, so it still had a smaller impact or the decreasing impact in the second and third quarter. We are in 2017, now clean. There's no business relation with 3rd party off price channels, but it was at least partially still in the base from last year. So besides the timing effect that we explained, it also has an impact on an inflated basis the previous year, but both factors came together. Well, actually, there were 3 factors. There was an overall lower order intake for winter to begin with. There was a timing and phasing. So for full price, there was a timing impact on the delivery, and there was a non recurrence of still some smaller off price businesses we did in 2016. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Andreas. So this will complete our conference call for today. If there's still some questions on your side that you would like to get more details or granularity on, Dennis and his team will be ready to answer these calls during the course of the day. Otherwise, thank you for your participation, and we're looking forward to seeing you later at our analyst conference next year. Thank you very much. Bye bye. Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may