All right. We'll get started here. Can you guys hear me? All right, kicking off the conference for the second year in a row, we're excited to once again have Synchrony Financial. Synchrony has continued to manage the credit cycle better than most, as losses during 2023 have remained below pre-pandemic levels, all while continuing to deliver double-digit growth and continuing to return capital to shareholders. Joining us to bring their insights are CEO Brian Doubles and CFO Brian Wenzel. So today's presentation is going to be a fireside chat. So Brian, Brian, welcome. You know, I wanted to start with the health of the consumer. You know, we've seen spending volumes slow a bit. Average transaction values are leveling off, but they're still up 5%. But it's clear the consumer is feeling some stress.
So maybe just talk about what you're seeing out of the consumer, any recent changes in spending patterns, whether across prime or near prime, and, and where do you see us headed?
Yeah, I think... Well, first, Ryan, thanks for having us. We're happy to be here today. You know, I think the consumer has continued to be very resilient all year, and I think the trends that we're seeing now as we head into the fourth quarter are similar to what we talked about in October at earnings. You know, we're seeing - we're still seeing good spend. I think the consumer broadly is healthy. You know, it's definitely different as you break it down by cohort. So, you know, not surprisingly, in the lower income brackets, we're starting to see them shift a little bit of their purchasing behavior. They're clearly managing to a budget.
So if the average basket size or ticket size is roughly the same, they're rotating into lower cost goods inside of that basket to kind of manage to that budget. I think that's actually prudent, that's healthy. That doesn't concern us, but you can definitely see some differences as you look at lower income and then prime and kind of super prime have just continued to outperform. And I think you talked a little bit about credit. You know, we continue to see credit kind of normalize in line with our expectations. Nothing concerning there. We have lagged the industry, so, you know, we're just now reaching 2019 levels.
So, you know, I think that's a testament to, you know, prudent underwriting, in kind of the last two or three years, some of the investments that we've made, in PRISM and our credit underwriting tools and the data that we're using and sharing with partners. So, you know, generally, I think we're pretty constructive on the consumer overall.
Got it. And, Brian, you referenced, you know, trends similar to what, you know, you had highlighted on, on the earnings call. Maybe just a quick view in terms of what you're seeing in 4Q, you know, whether it's spending, any changes to credit margin or loan growth expectations in the near term.
Yeah, no, listen, I think as we entered into the fourth quarter from earnings, you know, we were- we're optimistic about holiday and how it's turning out. The consumer continues to be resilient through this period. You know, just to touch on holiday for a second, you know, if you think about Black Friday through Cyber Monday, we're up a little over 5%, so between 5% and 6%. When I look at that in holiday-centric partners and platforms, so take out CareCredit, take out some of the furniture, et cetera. So that was, you know, fairly good when you look longer, because in retail now, the promotional period has dragged on.
So if you look at it from November first through last week, we're probably a point lower than that for holiday. But that's okay because you actually pick up an extra day, an extra weekend day with the longer holiday period. So we feel good about, we feel good about the spend, you know, the payment rates declining as we anticipated. So loan growth and performance, you know, we feel good about it. You know, as from the information we gave you back in October.
Got it. So, you know, this has obviously been a challenging backdrop for retailers, some putting up negative same-store sales. You guys have been growing spend, you've been growing accounts. Brian, maybe just talk about some of the things you're doing to help your partners manage through a slower sales environment.
Yeah, I think, I think one of the things that has, has always been true in this business is that in, in times like this, where things start to get a little bit tougher for our partners, they lean even more heavily on the card programs. You know, the card customers tend to be their best customers, their most loyal customers. And this is where, you know, we get even more engagement from our partners on, okay, what do we do to, to reengage, reenergize that loyal base of customers? And that's all the work we do with our data analytics teams, lifecycle marketing, campaigns, promotions. And so we've really accelerated a lot of that activity in the back half of this year, and I think that's helping.
The other thing that's true, in times like this, where on the consumer side, where they're trying to kind of make every dollar stretch as far as they can, that first purchase discount really matters. The promotions and the offers and that lifecycle marketing that we're doing, that really resonates with consumers. So I think we're attacking it from both sides, and I think you got a really engaged partner base, which is great, and they're trying to make holiday as good as they can make it. And then you've got on the consumer side, you've got an environment with... It's a little bit, you know, more uncertain, and I think they're just trying to make that dollar stretch as far as they can, and that's where we come in, and our products actually add a lot of value there.
Thinking about your, your different platforms you have, maybe just talk about what you're the most excited about, obviously all of them, into 2024, and maybe talk about some of the investments you're making across them to drive growth.
Yeah, I have to be careful because I'll hear about it afterwards. "Oh, you didn't mention my platform." Look, I think clearly, health and wellness is the platform. All year, we've seen outsized growth. You know, third quarter year to date, receivables are up 21%. We're making some big investments there. It's a huge market for us. It's $400 billion in elective healthcare spend that we're going after. Financing is a relatively small portion of that, so we see a ton of opportunity... you know, 70% of that business is dental and pet care. So it's elective procedures, you know, it's not typically covered by insurance, and so we continue to see a lot of opportunity there. We're launching new products. We're in over 80% of the dentist offices in the United States.
We're in over 70% of the vet practices in the U.S. So we've got great scale and great coverage across the U.S., and, you know, it's, it's a really powerful brand and a powerful network. You know, I'll tell you, out of all of our, out of all of our products, we get the highest customer satisfaction scores, the higher- highest NPS scores in CareCredit. So I think that's a big area of opportunity. And then the other platform I'd probably highlight is digital. We've had a great year. You know, we're partnered with really strong players in the technology space, with PayPal and Amazon. The new programs, Venmo and Verizon, are performing really well, and we're seeing a lot of growth there. So we're also very excited about what we're seeing in digital.
You talked about pet care. You recently announced the sale of Pets Best to Poodle Holdings. My wife has been in the market for pet insurance. We just got a puppy.
We've got some applications in the back.
I'm sure she'll take a look at it. You're generating a pretty nice $750 million pre-tax, post-tax gain. Can you maybe just walk through the transaction, why this made sense at this point in time? Maybe can we talk about the financial impact? How will this impact both the P&L, and how are we thinking about the use of the proceeds?
Yeah. So look, this was a great opportunity for us to create a lot of value in a relatively short period of time. So we bought Pets Best back in 2019 for about $100 million. And we grew the pets in force from about 125,000 pets when we bought the business to, I think it'll be around 800,000 by the end of this year. So we saw great growth. We invest in the business, and we were approached by IPH to acquire it. Like I said, created a lot of value, so we bought it for a 100. We're going to record a $750 million after-tax gain.
And at the same time, it's very strategic for us because we're becoming an investor in IPH's larger pet vertical, and there's nice synergies there longer term for us with CareCredit, synergies for us to work together longer term. So we, we are very committed to the pet space. This doesn't change that at all. It was just a nice way for us to actually kind of expand-
Mm-hmm
... the long-term strategic goals that we have. I don't know if you want to talk about the financial piece of that.
Yeah. So, you know, the after-tax gain, $750 million. We expect it to close, hopefully in the first quarter, pending regulatory and certain normal closing conditions. And for us, you know, obviously, the generation of capital allows us to do two things: one, to grow our RWAs. You know, Brian talked about the opportunities that we have in health and wellness and digital, and a little bit of the above-average growth we had. So obviously, investing in RWAs, maintain the dividend, and then we'll look at where other places we can invest or return the capital back to our shareholders, but we'll see what plays out.
So it's a good way to unlock value on the balance sheet, and as Brian said, maintain the exposure to the pet insurance space.
Brian, maybe to drill down, you know, you referenced above, you know, above average loan growth. I think you've been targeting 11% this year. You know, can you maybe just talk broadly about expectations for growth? What do you expect to drive it? You referenced payment rates continuing to come down. And do you—you know, while I know we'll get guidance next year, do you expect us to slow to that historically targeted range of 7%-10%?
Yeah, you know, I think when you look at this year, what drove what I would call the above-average growth from our long-term target of 7-10 was twofold: one, the continued strength of the consumer exiting out of the pandemic period, whether it was, you know, a lot of hourly wage growth, inflation, or excess savings. You know, so you had above-average spending, number one. Number two, you still have payment rate normalization to happen. So that drove balances. As I look forward into 2024 and then into 2025, we're expecting the payment rate to really come back in line with a more normalized rate, number one. And then two, you're going to be back to more normalized spending.
That spending, as Brian talks about with our partners, because we are with the most engaged, will be above average relative to the retail partners. And when you combine those two things, it should put us back into our long-term, you know, our long-term framework, which, you know, for us, given the balance sheet and our capital generation, is a terrific place to be, from a growth standpoint.
All right, maybe just sticking with growth, maybe just talk about the opportunity set for new business wins, both de novo and portfolio acquisitions. Obviously, there's rumors in the market about some portfolios, you know, moving around, you know, maybe one that some people in this building are familiar with. You know, how do you think about the cost of acquiring a large portfolio and the level of interest for the company?
Well, so I think, like, if I look at the pipeline today, more broadly, it tends to skew a little bit more towards startup opportunities, but very, very scalable startup opportunities, smaller programs that have an existing portfolio, and there's one or two bigger deals that'll probably come to market here. I think across all of those, but particularly on the bigger deals, this is where making sure that you've got a couple things is really important. You've got to have a really good risk-return equation. You've got to have really good alignment with the partner, and that's probably the most important thing. You know, we've seen deals that get really challenged when the partnership doesn't work because one partner is doing well and the other one's not.
And you know, when we price, when we price new business, but particularly on the larger programs, getting that alignment is critical. You know, you want to make sure that both partners really like the program in good times and in bad times. And you know, one of the things that we've always done is we price all new business through a cycle, and we look at it every year, and we say: "Okay, are we still gonna like this deal if this happens? Okay, are they still gonna like it?" Right? 'Cause you want, you want that alignment on how you're growing the program. You want alignment on, pricing and underwriting, and all those things are just so important. And you gotta get that right on the small deals, but it's absolutely critical to get that right on the larger program.
So that's the lens that we look at everything through. You know, I think we're pretty disciplined. You know, we don't get kinda too over our skis in really good times, and we make sure that we're anticipating times of uncertainty or times when things don't look quite as good, and I think that's important.
So you guys have done a very good job locking up a lot of your key partners. I think the top five are signed through 2026, and many are not up for renewal for the next few years. I think you've renewed over 40 this year. Now, given the environment we're in, slower growth, inflation pressure, worsening credit, maybe just talk about how negotiations with partners have changed over the last 12 months. What are the biggest things they're asking for, and how has the pendulum swung in terms of the economics of these of the renewals?
Yeah, I wouldn't say it's changed a lot, Ryan. I think. Look, the number one thing that they're looking for is capabilities. You know, products, capabilities, technology, platform, integration, customer experience, how easy is it to apply, how are you leveraging data? 'Cause at the end of the day, they all leverage these programs to drive growth.
Mm-hmm.
That's, that's what gets them engaged in the program, and that's what they really care about. So that, none of that has changed. You know, certainly, some of the, some of the financial assumptions that go into some of these models have changed. You know, you got higher interest rates, you got normalizing credit, so obviously, we factor those things in. But back to my earlier comments, we, we price for this environment, but we also price-
Mm-hmm
... for an environment that looks very different than what we're operating in today. You know, if you're gonna sign a 7- or 10-year deal or a 5-7-year extension, whatever it is, you gotta, you gotta really think about how that deal's gonna look in years 3 and 4, where you've got maybe a different interest rate environment, you got different consumer behaviors, you got different growth prospects. There's just a lot of things that you've gotta contemplate in that to make sure that, again, both, both parties like that deal in, in every one of those years.
You just announced that you guys won J.Crew from another issuer. You know, given the, you know, the comments that you just made about bringing on new deals, maybe just talk a little bit about how the competition has evolved for new business wins, and how is it leading to new opportunities for industry leaders like yourself?
Yeah. First, we're really excited to launch a program with J.Crew. We're very excited about that. I think, again, that, that came down to capabilities and the investments that we've made. We're also gonna launch, as part of that, a co-brand card, so J.Crew customers will have the ability to use the card out-of-store and earn rewards and come back in. So we think that's, that'll be a great program for us, and we're really excited about it. I think in terms of the competition, more broadly, you know, it's it continues to be fairly rational, and, and we were encouraged by that as we kinda went through the last couple of years.
When everything looked really good, and you had best-ever credit performance and low interest rates, it's tempting to start to build that in to your models and say, "Okay," you just assume that that goes on forever. We didn't see a ton of that, and now I think that we're in a period of a little bit more uncertainty. You see more conservatism being built in, and the competition is being fairly rational right now. So that's kind of my general sense, which is great for us, 'cause like I said, we price for good times and bad times. So if everybody else is being a little conservative, I think that's good.
I think the other thing we've seen on the competitive front is we have seen, you know, some of the fintechs pull back in different pockets a little bit. We've heard that from our merchants and our partners, and I think that's good for us. You know, we've been anchored in the multi-product strategy, and we think that's the strategy that wins out over the long term.
Just spend a minute or two talking about late fees, just to get your latest views. When are you expecting we're gonna get the final rule, and how are your efforts to offset progressing?
Yeah. So look, I can't predict when we're gonna get a final rule. I would just tell you that we're ready for it. We're prepared. We've been working on this for months now. You know, we're obviously, just to state the obvious, disappointed in the rule. We think there are a lot of unintended consequences that weren't properly evaluated. As part of that, I do think it'll make credit more expensive for those that pay on time. I think for those that pay late, you know, they'll get a benefit, but many customers without pricing offsets won't have access to credit.
I think that's those are the customers that need credit the most, and, you know, we know, based on our data and our portfolio, that, you know, customers we approve today, we wouldn't be able to with an $8 late fee. We've across the vast majority of the business, we have pricing actions agreed. We're ready to go when we see the final rule. We spent a lot of time on this, and we're prepared for it.
As you're engaging with merchants to discuss the offsets, Brian, you and I have talked about this, maybe just talk about how the discussion's going. Are merchants willing to accept less? Maybe just as you think about yield increases as an offset, have you done testing, and how has it gone?
Well, let me start on that, and then I'll hand it to... So I think, look, back to the point on alignment with the partners. If you have that alignment, our partners fully appreciate that there are customers that we approve today that we wouldn't be able to approve with an $8 late fee. And they don't want to lose those customers, and neither do we. So our goal has always been to protect our partners and approve largely the same customers as we do today, and those have been our overriding kind of tenets on this. And our partners are aligned with that.
Mm-hmm.
So, you know, as we talk about pricing actions and other mitigants, they're very constructive conversations, and we reach agreement. We say: Okay, this is what we have to do to kind of protect the customers that we underwrite today. You know, want to add to that?
Yeah, you know, listen, as Brian said, we've spent the last nine months or so working on this. We went through a lot of different mitigants, Ryan, evaluating what we could do, the relative impacts. We tested some of it. You know, obviously, this is going to be a large-scale repricing, not only for our, our business, but for, for the industry. And we're prepared in, in a way in which we can do it, with the overarching goal of how do we get back to the same level of return and the same level of sales? And but that's going to vary a little bit, partner by partner, given the demographics and their brand, but, but, but they have been very productive conversations. So again, between the testing, the research that we've done, we, we feel good about...
You know, if the rule does come down, as Brian said, we're disappointed. If the rule come down, like the proposed rule, we'll be ready to act.
Just to bring together just a couple of points that you said. Any sort of updated expectations on how long you think this will take to offset? And you referenced returns. When we're sitting here a couple of years from now, do you think Synchrony needs to be able to generate the same types of returns that it was before we got into these rules?
Yeah, well, let me start with the latter point. Our goal is to get back to the same level of return, right? That- that's the goal. You know, obviously, we'll see what consumer behavior does to that. But with regard to timing, I know this is a big question, and unfortunately, I can't give you clarity with regard to that. What I'd say, we are prepared when the rule does come out. There are a number of different factors, you know, to think about. One, A, when does the rule come out? B, what happens with litigation? And then we'll have to make a determination of when do you start with some of the mitigants, you know, in that context, and when the ultimate rule is effective, the timeframe of it. So there are a couple of factors there.
I think I know investors and analysts want to understand, you know, exactly how this plays out. I think when the rule comes out, and we have a little bit of time to just look at it, I think we'll probably be able to give you some perspective of how to think about it. But again, the overarching goal is to get back to where we are today, but it will look a little bit different, probably on the P&L.
Maybe shifting gears, talk a little bit about credit. You know, we did see losses uptick in October, which is consistent with your full year guidance. I think at EPS, you had highlighted that flow to loss has been increasing. Maybe just talk about what is driving that. Are you seeing the impacts of student loans coming through? And, you know, could we see near-term losses coming in higher than expected?
Yeah. So let me unpack that question a little bit. So, first of all, you know, Brian talked about the different cohorts as you think about, you know, you think about the population. The lower cohort, right? So think about non-prime and, and probably the edge of prime. They're back to pre-pandemic levels, maybe in some pockets, a little bit worse. So what we see in delinquency is lower entry rates. So, the people who would normally come in, you know, prime people do go into delinquency for, you know, losing a job or health-related matters. We're not seeing as much of that. So what you're seeing is lower populations. As they get into delinquency, the flow to loss is worse than 2019 because the mix is different.
And what it tells you is that the consumer, once they get into that situation, don't have access to liquidity, given that they can't get a personal loan. You know, a home equity line, if they have a home, is not available. They don't have the savings. So we see that flow a little bit more severe. We're seeing a lot more, you know, debt settlement activity. So that's what you're seeing. I think as you move forward, Ryan, what we'd anticipate is that the entry rate normalizes. When the entry rate normalizes, because you have people that are going to flow into delinquency that have more access to liquidity, you'll actually see the collection performance rise and probably come back in line with the pre-pandemic period.
You know, the question is, we've taken actions, you know, both in the second and third quarter, to tighten up a little bit because I think we look at it to share consumer. We're doing that in line to say: Hey, listen, we want to maintain our loss profile inside of our target range. That's the optimal place to be. So we're taking actions in order to do that. And as we look at the portfolio today, the formation, you know, we look like we're going to be able to achieve that. So, you know, as we sit here, you know, one thing I want to say, Ryan, unfortunately, you're comfortable early, so we couldn't get to November delinquency. I know you wanted it.
You know, I'd sit back and say what you should expect as we think about the fourth quarter is delinquency rates will rise here in the fourth quarter, both seasonality, a little bit of performance. And then, as you think about next year, we'll be back with more definitive guidance in January, but expect to see losses peak in the first half of the year. And again, we think we come back and stay next year inside of our long-term target of 5.5%-6%.
Maybe just to flesh out some of those comments that you made. You talked about taking actions, tightening. Maybe just talk about some of the puts and takes that are driving the, the peaking in the first half of the year, and then, you know, my words, starting to follow a more normal seasonality. You know, and how do you think about... I know you made tightening. How do you think about the risk of that going above the high end of your targeted range?
Yeah, you know, first of all, you know, two things. One, I don't think we have enough credit, Ryan. We are probably the second-to-last issuer to reach normalized levels here in the fourth quarter. So, and that's a factor of two things. One, you know, during the pandemic period, we did not accord ion our credit box. We didn't shut our way down, we didn't expand it in order to kind of get growth. We stay much more consistent in our underwriting, number one. Brian touched on the investments we made in advance underwriting. So we're not. We're less score reliant. So, I think those two factors have really helped us, kind of build in.
As we looked in the second quarter, one of the things we started to see, which we saw on the beginning part of the pandemic, was score migration. And when we saw a large score migration into non-prime, we decided we were gonna take action, right? Because, you know, we were concerned about those accounts. As we moved into the third quarter and we saw some of the flow-through to losses I talked about, I think we wanted to tighten some of that exposure at default and tighten origination a little bit. Not dramatically, because, again, we don't we're not, we're, we're very consistent when it comes to underwriting, so we tighten that up. So new accounts will be a little bit lower next year than our historical run rate.
But I think we feel good about the ability to contain the losses inside our you know long-term range, assuming the environment stays you know somewhat similar to where it is today.
Now that we've gone back and fully normalized, you've gone through seasoning of a lot of the portfolio, does that change the way you think about credit performance if we were to see a downturn, which David was talking in his opening remarks, that he thought there was going to be a recession in 2023? Obviously, there wasn't, and it feels like the chances of soft land are increasing. But how does that look for Synchrony if we're sitting here a year from now and thinking about a potential recession?
You know, a couple things. You know, you started out with the question about a downturn. Now, I, I think there's so many unique aspects of where we are today with higher interest rates, lower liquidity for consumers. So I, I do think, industry-wide, a downturn looks a little bit different. But I, I do think one of the, the, the real benefits here is that, the unemployment rate is starting from such a low point, that even if you have a downturn, it's going to look different than, than it did before. You know, I think for us, we have the ability on a lower line strategy. We have less volatility, Ryan.
If you go back and look at either the GFC normalization that happened in the 2016 and 2017 window, we have less volatility than, I'd say, normal co-brands, because we don't have that big line and exposure at default. So I think-
Mm-hmm.
- Even at a downturn, we'll be less volatile than many other card issuers.
You referenced that it's my words, that you have visibility in terms of, in terms of the peaking of the losses. You know, your allowance is still above, you know, that benchmark of day one CECL that we all use for some reason. Just given your look-ahead view of the economy, you know, where do we go on the allowance from here? And how do you think about some of the puts and takes?
Yeah, you know, so first of all, you know, our reserve building this year has generally been growth-driven. We have qualitative reserves on for what I'd say is an adverse macroeconomic background. We have a qualitative on for potential student loan deterioration, whether or not that shows up in 2024. So I think we've reserved, and where we sit today, we feel very good and it's adequately reserved. If you believe the environment kind of muddles through, whether it could be, you know, a shallow type recession or downturn, or if it kind of stays in a soft landing, I think what you'd expect to see is that the reserve rate to migrate back towards day one. Probably will not get there next year, but, you know, it will trend down.
That's not probably as linear as people think. It just kind of go quarter-on-quarter. And, and our provisioning is mainly going to be hopefully growth, growth-driven as we move forward here. But again, from a rate basis, I'd expect it to decline in this environment.
One thing that makes Synchrony unique relative to some others is the presence of the RSA, which, you know, serves as an offset, particularly in times like we've seen now with credit losses rising. You know, with losses still going up, you know, relative to what you've seen over the first couple of quarters in the year, you know, you've talked about a 4%-4.5% range. How do we get back into that range? You know, you've highlighted mix as a driver. What do you think some of the puts and takes are, and how does it perform in that scenario that you just laid out?
You know, the first thing, Ryan, I know we have a lot of dialogue with you about the RSA. And a couple of years ago, when it was, you know, above 6%, it was because losses were low, interest rates were low, revenue was still hanging in there a little bit. So in that environment, you know, Brian talked earlier about alignment of interest. You know, our partners made more money. We paid more out in the RSA, and that's working as designed. Now, as you flow through, you sit back and say the interest rates went from, you know, effectively nothing to now, you know, 5%+. When you think about charge-offs getting back in the normalized period, again, that's a buffer that's pushed us below our long-term target of 4%-4.5%.
I think as you move forward, you know, what you're going to see is, as that rate continues on, because we'll be, you know, I said, effectively 4.85%, you know, for the full year, approximately. As you move into next year, being a long-term target, that's obviously a downward bias-
Mm-hmm
... on the RSA. But again, our net interest margin being approximately 15.50% for the year, as that migrates up, that should push the RSA back up, you know, into the range. So it's how those two dynamics work and whether or not we get stability with regard to interest rates or if they begin to decline. That's how it slides back into there, into that range. It's just really more about timing of those two elements, the revenue and the charge-offs coming in line, and then how interest rates move.
Brian, the company's done an excellent job managing costs in a challenging environment. How do you think about balancing investment while also driving operating leverage in the business?
Well, look, we always try to be very disciplined around cost. I mean, that's one of—that's just how we run the business. And we—you know, with that said, we always need to invest in the long-term success of the business as well. And so we, you know, every year, and we're kind of in our planning mode right now for 2024. We look at investments that both drive growth, but then on the other side of the page, we've got a lot of great investments that drive productivity. And we're laser-focused on the efficiency ratio and delivering our long-term target there. Our team is very much aligned. You know, we've got some uncertainty heading into next year, so we're being even more disciplined on cost.
You know, we're doing, you know, a lot of the, the things we've done in the past, but looking at real estate, looking at T&E, being more disciplined around open jobs and hiring, early retirement programs. You know, things like that, that will set us up for 2024 and beyond. So we're, we're very focused on it. We're in the middle of that planning stage right now, but, this is a team that has a laser focus on the cost structure of the business.
Brian, as we look into 2024, one of the more emerging themes over the past few weeks is the market's starting to believe more and more that the Fed might actually be in a easing cycle. I think most market participants think maybe the Federal curve is a little too dovish. But given the positioning of your balance sheet, I'll call it slightly liability sensitive, maybe just talk about some of the drivers in the margin into next year, and if the Fed does begin to ease, you know, where do you see the margin ultimately shaking out, and what are some of the puts and takes?
Yeah, you know, the first thing when you think about our variable rate products for a second, they generally lag. So as interest rates come down or spreads come down, you should get a tailwind with regard to lag, which we faced, you know, kind of going into it. It lags on the way up, the benefit. So first of all, you get that benefit. Second of all, for some of our fixed-rate products, while we have matching liabilities to it, there is duration a little bit of duration mismatch. So I think as the portfolio resets, particularly on our certificate of deposit, you should get margin easing there. So those are two really positive trends as you kind of think about it.
The question is going to be, as you start to see the rates decline, what are the betas and what are the industry, whether it's the regional banks, digital-only banks, or the brick-and-mortar, how quickly they go to move rates. If they don't go, you know, rates will stick a little bit longer and have a higher beta cycle, but everyone feels like they may want to move more quickly in that environment, particularly ones who are under margin pressure.
Maybe switching gears, we have about two minutes to go here, so I want to get through a couple more things. You know, capital remains very strong. You just had this successful transaction that you mentioned that'll close in 1Q that'll shore up the capital ratios, and you're still one of the few out there that's returning capital. You know, given all the regulations that are coming on board, maybe just talk about how you think about managing capital in the environment, given, you know, the changes that are coming.
Yeah, you know, listen, the one hallmark of our business is the ability to generate a lot of capital each year when you think of the earnings power of this business. So I think we've been able to manage through the CECL transition, which we're halfway through, and return capital to shareholders. I think we generate, you know, significant capital to grow the business, where it's inside our long-term targets or slightly higher than that. And then, as you think about impending rules, you know, we think they're very manageable. There are offsets that we can do in order to manage, whether it's the operational risk piece or RWA inflation that you may see coming from Basel III. Again, we think there's enough discontent around that, that the rules will change.
But, but again, for us, it's manageable, and I think we look at that, and we'll, we'll work through that transition, you know, when the rule comes out. But, but really go back to we generate a lot of capital each year, Ryan, that, that we can employ either into inorganic things or, or return, return money through share purchases.
I mean, I think so, with organic growth, dividend, buybacks. I think we've retired more than half the shares of the company since we've gone public. So we are very focused on capital return and capital allocation.
Right. Maybe quickly in the last 20 seconds here, I think I asked you the same question then last year. You know, the stock still trades at a pretty low multiple. Last year was the macro and uncertainty on credit. What do you think is misunderstood at this point, and what are you doing to fix it?
Well, I think, I think there are some negative headwinds obviously priced into the stock right now. I think you still have the macro and the uncertainty maybe around credit and what's happening broadly across the industry. And then you've got the regulatory piece. And I think those are, those are unknowns. I think we are prepared for both. You know, I talked about how we're preparing and how we're prepared for late fees when we get the final rule. We're certainly prepared for any macro scenario that we see in 2024 and 2025. I mean, this is a very resilient business model. We've demonstrated that through cycles in the past. And so those two things we just kind of have to work through to, to abate those headwinds.