Good morning, everybody. At the risk of alienating all of the other attendees at this event, this is a session that I've been most personally excited for. Please don't tell anybody, all right? We'll keep that between us. We are super excited and fortunate to have the team from Wayfair with us, including Niraj Shah, the Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Kate Gulliver, the Chief Financial Officer, who we also consider to be a superhero, and Ryan Barney, who runs Investor Relations. We're so excited because Niraj, his story is incredible. If you have not had the chance or opportunity to do a little digging into it, there are so many ways to better understand Wayfair.
I would highly recommend How I Built This with Guy Raz 'cause it goes into the history of how Niraj and his college roommate, Steve Conine, founded this business. They were at the forefront of understanding that commerce was changing and that the consumer was gonna find new ways to procure products. It is so exciting to have him here today to help us understand what could be the next succession in how commerce and consumption are changing. I hope that was not over the top and somewhat appropriate.
Michael, thanks for having us here. We're excited to be here. I thought with that sort of preamble, maybe we'll go 45 minutes, I won't even have to say anything.
That's right. As you can tell, I'm a little long-winded. It happens when I get excited. With all that being said, like I had mentioned, you were operating with a lot of foresight as e-commerce was in its infancy stage. We're at the forefront of a lot of change. I'm gonna leave it very open-ended and ask, how do you see all this technological innovation not only changing how the consumer shops and looks for goods, but how Wayfair is trying to capitalize on it to be at the forefront of these changes?
I'd say there are two large changes that are underway. One has been underway for, I'd say, roughly 10 years, and that is only accelerating. What that is that customers' willingness to engage in e-commerce has moved, you know, say about 10 years ago, from a stage of sort of early adoption to becoming kind of a mainstream activity they're very comfortable with. As that happened, sort of their expectations around selection, around delivery, service, you know, were heightened. What you find is that to operate in e-commerce well, you actually need to be a scale player in three things. One is your brand, your marketing, your customer reach needs to be significant. You know, we spend over $1 billion on advertising. We have a household brand.
We have, you know, millions and millions of customers that are, you know, in our loyalty program or download our app and come direct to. You need scale for that. Second is logistics. In order to deliver what the expectations customers have and at the price they have, so speed of delivery, convenience of delivery, and low cost of delivery, you need scale. There's no way to do logistics without scale. You find the scale players, whether it be, you know, Walmart or, you know, Amazon on grocery or Home Depot or Lowe's on building materials or us on home goods. They've built an expansive delivery operation around their type of goods. When you talk about large, bulky home goods into the home for a consumer, we're the only one who's invested in that type of network.
You know, we have over 20 million sq ft and, you know, 75 buildings, logistics operations on three continents. So you need scale for that. The third you need scale for is the technology. The technology, I'm gonna get to the second big change in a minute, which is technology, which is I think what you're probably actually more focused on right now. We have a team of, you know, 2,500 data scientists, software engineers, product managers. To build technology, even in a world of AI, which I'll get to in a second, at the level that consumers expect to experience or your supplier partners expect to have access to or that you want internally to run your operation is not necessarily easy.
There's a finite number of folks who really know how to play at that level. We have the scale in those three things. Our competitors, Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, Costco, Amazon, have that scale. The first big change is that anyone who's smaller than that, you can either be an independent store with incredibly good service in a relatively small radius and provide that as a shopkeeper, and that works, or you're a scale player. That shopkeeper is not really big in e-commerce, the scale players are. Everywhere in the middle is getting squeezed out. That's the first big change, and that's continuing to compound. The second big change is obviously technology doesn't stay static. If you think about the changes, you know.
you know, Michael's preamble, the other way to take it is that I'm old, right? I've been basically-
You still look very good. Which is hard to believe.
Well, I graduated from college 30 years ago. We started Wayfair in 2002. Wayfair is 24 years old this year. It had a few stages. We didn't launch Wayfair as a brand till 2011. The first decade, Steve and I just grew it out of cash flow. We were profitable the whole time, and we just reinvested all the profits back in the business. We raised capital to launch Wayfair in 2011, obviously went public subsequent to, you know, in 2014. There's been like a journey, but through that journey, we've always been very technology-oriented. Our background was as engineers.
If you think about cloud and mobile and, you know, all the technology change that's happened over the last 20, 30 years, you know, those have all been quite transformative, and they all took a number of years to play out. You know, you can look back and say, "Oh, wow, this is what happened there," and there are those who won, and then those who really didn't quite understand it and ended up losing over time. Obviously, the technology change that's upon us now is AI. AI, and I think rightfully so, people talk about as being larger than those other technology changes, certainly disruptive and dynamic. The notable thing about it is it's moving significantly faster than each of those moved. Those didn't move slow, but they moved at a cadence people got accustomed to.
You know, things got, you know, tremendously better on, like, a two-year cycle. With AI, things are getting tremendously better on, like, a six-month cycle. The six-month cycle versus two-year cycle is very hard for people to internalize, and it doesn't fit with how companies budget. It doesn't fit with how business leaders think about technology. It doesn't fit with how even technologists tend to adopt technologies. But what you find with AI is it's the same thing where if you have a technology-minded organization with the requisite skills at that kind of highest level, you can actually be an aggressive user of that technology in a transformative ways.
Whether that be your internal cost structure and speed of operation, whether that be what you do, in our case, with our supplier partners on our platform, or whether that be what we do for customers, you can be quite transformative. So we view this as the next, you know, just a huge opportunity for us. It came at the perfect time for us in the sense that we got lucky that we spent three years doing a lot of re-platforming work on our systems, which was unfortunate at the time because we couldn't use our technology resource to advance the business. We had to prioritize re-platforming.
Well, all of a sudden, we're through that, and so you saw that at the beginning of last year, our growth rate, which was kind of like roughly 0% year-over-year, you know, taking share because the market was declining, but still not much share. You saw it accelerate over the course of last year from 0%- 7% while the market continued to contract. The way we did that was we were back to, you know, being on the offense, being able to use technology to grow and drive the business. That growth rate, which accelerated, we think at the end of this year, we can be nicely, the share spread can expand into the double digits. Again, that's off our own actions.
a lot of that's due to how we use technology to advance our business. AI is just. It's a tremendously strong lever. I think the challenge for folks is when you have a disruptive technology, it's hard to get your head around it all at once. Folks say, "Okay, well, who's gonna go away? Who's gonna benefit?" I think that's what is a struggle for folks. I think this notion that LLMs and AI agents can do everything is not the case, but I think they can do a lot. The companies that can optimize themselves in that world, the same way in the days of search and social media with what we did with Meta, what we did with Google, what we did with Pinterest advantaged us.
I think we can do the same thing. In the same way that their efforts like Google Shopping, you know, which tried to have transactions finished there, ultimately found that consumers wanna go lower funnel. Basically, what OpenAI the other day said as well, that that's probably the bulk of what people wanna do. Google already knows this lesson from years of balancing both sides of it. I think it's going to be the case, particularly in categories like fashion and home, where items are not UPC code commodity goods, where it's just a fulfillment engine.
I think we're well-positioned to really be the scale player who then pulls away with this category through the set of what we're doing, whether that be the way we're using these technologies and then our own programs, whether it be our loyalty program rewards or verified or we're doing brick-and-mortar stores, et cetera. I think it's, like, it's a really good time, and the technology set is, we think, pretty exciting. I think there's a lot of confusion around it too.
100%. Well, uncertainty is the worst part of anything, and you just provided a lot of clarity on that. Thank you, and that was very well said. Can you give a few tangible examples of how you've deployed technology in the last 6-12 months that has enabled some of those market share gains that have been very visible in your financial performance?
Sure. I think, you know, so those gains show up through a myriad of efforts, and I think some of them are easier to grasp from the outside. In other words, if I talk about our loyalty program, Wayfair Rewards, and we talked about this on the last earnings call, the number of people who have enrolled in it and the fact that they then spend a multiple of what they would spend if before they were in it because of the benefits and how, you know, while it compresses gross margin and expands EBITDA because, you know, we're getting more revenue with less ad cost, but at a lower gross margin. Well, the net of that's a higher profit margin, EBITDA margin, right? We talk about the growth in members.
That's, like, relatively easy for folks to kind of grasp. If I talk about, you know, like, one of the dozens of things we now do with AI, we have this 20 million+ item catalog, and we know there's error in this catalog. Dimensional error is, like, one thing that comes up, you know, and whether that be dimensional error that causes the shipping estimates to be wrong or whether that's dimensional error where the customer, you know, that the sofa's an inch or two inches off and it ends up being an issue for the space they want to put it in.
You know, that's. You grapple with that because when you have that many items in the catalog, suppliers are putting in that information, some of that they're putting in manually, some that they may have wrong and even in their own system, and it's not always easy to find the error. We've been able to replace a lot of labor trying to help minimize error with automation around using AI to identify and correct that error. We've been able to do that with filling in missing attributes and information. Well, that's a little harder for you to grasp how that drives share gain. Well, the way it does that is customers are happier. You see their repeat rate go up. You also see that reduce, you know, our costs on incidences.
You know, if there's a return, that's an incident. If it's a mistake we made, obviously that's more expensive than just a return because we're paying for everything, and we're trying to make sure the customer ends up happier. You know, what happens when you save that money is you can put that into something that grows the business, right? Or profit, right? You're seeing that while our revenue has been going up, profit's going up much faster, and that's basically what you're gonna continue to see. There's, like, dozens of things that are causing us to accelerate the rate of share.
Some are easy because we can talk about what we're doing on YouTube or what we're doing with influencers, which is a lot more than we were doing the year before. Again, easy to grasp. A lot of the places and things we're doing that get into, like, our delivery logistics optimizations are harder to grasp.
Yeah.
They do drive that customer behavior.
You bring such a valuable and interesting perspective at the risk of being wrong. I feel like you're a technologist at heart, but a business person in practice.
Well, the technologists won't have me, but I like to think of myself as one.
I think everybody will have to make no mistake about it. You know, there's two questions in this regard. Number one is, how do you deploy this technology in a way that the organization can absorb it and capitalize on it? Two, how do you think about the existential threat where this is creating a lot of productivity, but at the same time, that could lead to a disruption in your end market, which is the consumer who might find their job being displaced as a result of this technology? I know those are two big questions, but you're such an effective,
Wait, I think, you know, I was reading Howard Marks today.
I didn't mean to flaunt with you. I'm sorry.
No, no. I was reading Howard Marks' like, follow-up memo to his original AI memo.
Yeah.
which he just published whatever recently. You know, he talked about how like step one on an AI was, you know, using a chatbot, you know. You almost use it like the same way you use search, but obviously, it's better than search, right? He talked about like step two is basically where you start giving it like research assignments. You realize you can do more than just, you know, what you would do with search, and you start framing things that way, asking it to do some reasoning for you. You start to realize, well, it actually can do that quite well. Like stage three or whatever you call it.
The third thing, and it's basically that's the stage we're now at, is where you have agents, autonomous agents. You figure out how to orchestrate them around accomplishing goals you have. And I think the real opportunity with AI is actually today, it's how you take that third step and put it into practice, whether that be in your, you know, software development organization, how you really change how you're building software and what you can, what speed and what you can do, or whether that be business teams, where basically, you know, workflow automation's existed forever. Workflow automation was before, it had to be very discrete, specific steps. You know, take the cells from this column, put them on this other sheet, run this calculation, then insert that here. It had to be very literal.
You couldn't have a reasoning step, which is like, you know, does that, you know, based on the picture and what you know of that product, does that width seem inaccurate? You know, you could. That's a reasoning step. You couldn't put that in a workflow automation before. Well, now you can put in reasoning steps, right? If you think about the workflows you can automate, went from a small amount to a very significant amount of what people do. Because the small amount stuff was basically automated, and you know, spreadsheets and other things sort of helped you automate those. But where you had to have reasoning steps, you had no solution other than to put people around the reasoning steps. So you built up a very large setup to do that.
Now, you basically can create workflow automation with the reasoning steps basically being AI. That's like the first step of basically what you could do with taking what AI agents could do into the business process side. I think where that goes is where, you know, instead of thinking about it as a portion of what someone's doing, there's gonna be certain roles where it can do the entirety of that role. Like, an example, which is, you know, maybe not exactly what you're thinking of, is like, you know, if you just think about driverless cars, you know, in the beginning, you're saying, "Okay, well, maybe the driverless vehicle could go from here to here in a very, very narrow band," but it couldn't, like, pull into my driveway, and it couldn't, you know, do it.
If you think about, like, what a Waymo now can do, it's not quite at the 100%, but it's pretty close to it, right? You know. It needs to have mapped the route, so if you're going up a private, you know, windy road that it hasn't mapped, it can't do that, right? It's not a hundred percent, but it's getting close to it. Well, you start thinking about that. I do think the landscape of what jobs are and where people can add value will change. I don't think it needs to be scary in the sense that there's been technology which has destroyed jobs and then new jobs have been created many times in the past. I think there's always a period of disruption.
Yeah.
That period, I think, is coming very quickly.
Got you. I wanna ask one more on the agentic commerce side. Before I do, I wanna bring Kate into this and look at this from the financial lens. How, as the Chief Financial Officer, are you thinking to capitalize on this technology, but at the same time meet some of your hurdle requirements, profitability goals? 'Cause it does seem like this is an exciting but also very uncertain period where you're gonna have to manage it carefully.
Yeah. I mean, I think what you heard Niraj describe in a few of those answers were, you know, ways that we are leveraging AI to enhance and improve the consumer experience, and that can actually help boost the top line, right? You know, you asked a separate question around sort of like overall consumer disruption.
Yeah.
Putting that aside for a minute, 'cause we've been operating in a very disrupted category for many years, and we've been focused on share gain. You know, this is a category where the potential to help the consumer identify what she wants faster, simpler, with better product data, et cetera, really improves the customer experience pretty dramatically. What we get excited about is, one, there's a lot that we can do, we think, that actually grow conversion, grow loyalty, you know, improve sort of that customer coming back to us and shopping again and, you know, expanding their share of wallet. So that's sort of the top-line benefit. Then you heard Niraj speak about, you know, some of the efficiency gains that you can get.
We're certainly quite focused on how do we think about these efficiency gains if you know, have portions of someone's job that is automated, you know, where do we think that efficiency gain goes? You know, we could put that back into, you know, ongoing enhancements that we're making. We could give that to the consumer in some form of, you know, price or delivery benefit. I think that's actually pretty exciting when you think about it. Now, it's very early days on that.
Internally, part of our focus is, let's make sure we're doing the right things now to make sure that our employees are experimenting, that they're very comfortable with this technology, and that we're starting to see some of those efficiency gains, and then think about, you know, how might we want to invest that, and what is the right way to think about that investment. It's both the top-line piece and then the sort of employee efficiency piece.
Very well said. Your share price has been unfairly penalized because of this idea that agentic commerce is going to take over and disrupt platforms, third-party marketplaces, assuming the idea that we as consumers are just gonna go to our, you know, preferred large language model and say, "Send me a gray couch that is seven feet in length and have it delivered to my doorstep." Why is that wrong?
Well, I think, you know, anytime there's a rapid change, it's hard to get your head around. I think, you know, the notion that you just don't know what's gonna happen definitely is the first thought folks have. It's gonna create fear, uncertainty, and doubt. I think the reality is, as I was describing earlier, there's like the bigger players who are basically the ones who can deliver against the customer experience today. They're gonna be the big beneficiaries in the slices of the market where they are the best solution. Effectively, what is happening is just that AI is only gonna facilitate whoever's the best at something becoming bigger faster.
That's both internally what they do with the technology and what they specifically do for the customer with the technology, but it's also frankly where customers are gonna get steered to, where they're gonna go to. I think the reality is the LLMs. They're very helpful for customers to kind of get the landscape of something they don't understand, but it can only take it so far. If it's something the customer can be very articulate in, like I use Dove soap bars, I use you know whatever, Mrs. Meyer's hand soap, I use you know-
Chocolate milk.
Seventh Generation dishwasher tabs, you know, et cetera, and I wanna replenish that stuff, it could, you know, execute those orders for me, and that is a very straightforward exercise. If it's something where there's discovery, inspiration, emotion, aesthetic, whether you're talking about home or you're talking about fashion, you're talking about beauty, I don't think the agent is gonna help you by going from the beginning to the end and just saying, "Okay, you want something that is, you know, you want some more lipstick," you know, unless you want to reorder the same exact one, right? Just like it won't solve the gray sofa example that you gave a minute ago.
What it will do is it will, you know, and this is where we can optimize for this, but it will say Wayfair, you know, is a great solution for you, whatever. There's a lot of choices you get to make around the item. You're gonna wanna understand other items. We have information about what you've purchased. We know what styles you like. We know what you have in your house. We can create inspirational imagery with AI that's very specific to you. We can also pre-present you with a lot of options around delivery, assembly, taking away packaging, things that you would then. You wouldn't always want necessarily the same services, but depending on the purchase, depending on that particular use case, you may want them. You can have all these items delivered together two weeks from Friday if you want.
You know, there's things that we offer that don't get abstracted away into like this generalized, e-commerce sort of use case. I do think if you're a commodity goods provider, it could be potentially quite different. Honestly, we play in a category that's very bespoke and unique, where customers you know basically home, fashion, and automobiles are the only three product categories that customers have so much sort of curiosity and fanaticism about that they'll spend money to you know basically buy magazines, basically consume media for the enjoyment of knowing what else is coming, what the trends are, what's available. If you kind of put then the shopping lens over that, you're like, okay, these categories, there's not that many of them, but these ones are non-commodity categories where customers are gonna wanna play a role in the decisioning, and it's non-obvious.
It's not a reasoning solution. You know, if I'm looking for a 42-inch TV and I want a budget one, there is a best one at any given time. Or I wanna, you know, step up from there's a best one at any given time. I want the premium one, there is a best one at any given time. That's not the case in our world.
There's an emotive content to it that is very hard to capture through artificial intelligence or even.
Yeah, no, I was just gonna add to that. Yes, I was actually gonna say it's a highly emotive purchase. I think the other thing that you touched on a little bit with the delivery, Niraj, but this is a complicated purchase for consumers. It's a high-ticket purchase for them, and it comes with some risk, right? Does it get delivered correctly? Will it fit in my room? Who's going to remove the product that's already there? If there's a damage issue, which it's a category that has damage, you know, how does that get resolved? Sort of trust in the retailer actually matters quite a bit as well, I think, in this category.
All of the things that Niraj described around sort of the, you know, taste and style and selection and sort of the consideration combined with the sort of logistical complexity, I think, are quite important here. That said, you know, we are very focused on being wherever the consumer is. Our view has been we should, you know, be in the mix, partnering with folks to make sure that as they're thinking through sort of how this evolves, that we're part of that conversation. We've publicly, you know, said that we're partnering with Google on Universal Commerce Protocol to sort of help shape how this discovery happens and how this part of the, you know, the shopping experience does evolve.
I think, you know, that's really, you know, one of the benefits of our scale is that we actually are interesting to these folks to actually partner and sort of push the thinking forward here.
Very well said. Home furnishing and marriage may be the three categories where the risk of regret is very high. Just ask my wife. With that being said, one of the subtopics within this is Wayfair has a lot of aspirations for its sponsored ads business, for retail media, and there are fears that if there's at least a portion of the business moves to agentic commerce, that could disrupt the ability to monetize those eyeballs. How do you see that playing out? Are you as confident today about your aspirations on retail media than you were a couple of years ago?
I think it goes back to that earlier point, which is just again, where do transactions really get consummated on these agents? I think that's really in the commodity purchase type arena.
Perhaps in the low ticket, non-pure commodity. Commodities where the UPC code's the identical thing and you're just replenishing. I think that's where the highest risk is. The next highest risk would be, you know, I want a three-pack of iPhone cables. I wanna spend less than $15. I want them to be gray or black. I want them, you know, six feet long. That's kinda like a you haven't specified the exact item you want, but it's kinda like you might be willing to take the risk on that 'cause you're sorta like, "How bad can it go? Pick something highly rated," whatever. You may not care. As soon as you move up in ticket price and the item is, you know, more bespoke, you really wanna pick the right item aesthetically, emotionally.
I really don't think you're gonna see a high percentage of transactions happen upstream the same way you saw that that same dynamic play out with all the kind of shopping interfaces that were built by the media companies over the years. Those are not categories that they were able to disintermediate there. I think that traffic does flow downstream to the retail sites. I think the shopping experience we have, the retail media is embedded in that in a way that it's basically helping the customer discover items that they might have high interest in, because that's where that ad unit is highly valuable to the person who's paying for it and to the customer. If you have ad units that are not valuable to the customer, you end up running into a problem.
You can't really scale your supplier advertising business. You can only really scale it if you're putting pertinent, you know, interesting products in front of the customer that are relevant. That's why we think, you know. That's why we're seeing that continue to develop nicely. We don't really see risk to it.
Got you. Pivoting the conversation, Wayfair has done a remarkable job, more recently and over the long term taking market share, and that has been characterizing a lot of the performance that you've been achieving and reporting in the last several quarters. You haven't gotten much of a help from the housing market, from the home furnishings market. What do you think needs to happen in order for that to become more of a tailwind, understanding that market share gains are gonna be a critical driver still for you moving forward?
There's no question that home goods is a cyclical market, right? There's no question that we're in, like, a down part of that cycle if you look at the overall market. It's contracted for four years now. It's not contracting as fast as it did for the three prior years, but it's still contracting. It's probably near the bottom, but it's, you know, in terms of when does it really turn up, that's much harder to forecast because, you know, housing prices remain elevated, interest rates remain elevated, and ultimately when people move, that's one of the catalysts to purchasing home goods. You know, if you look at the moves per year, that number isn't really rising. We don't necessarily see it taking off anytime super soon.
I think the reason we're fine with that is that our strategy for taking market share is not dependent on the category really gaining momentum. The same way we went from 0% year-over-year growth to 7% at the end of last year, the market contracted through last year. We've kind of accelerated against the market. How did we do that? Well, the answer is our own actions, whether it be how we use technology, what we did with logistics, what we did with our marketing reach, you know, the improvements to the customer experience, the programs like Rewards, Wayfair Verified, et cetera. There's a lot more to come on those things. You know, so you start this year, we're at that 7% or whatever, you know. We're mid-single digits was our guide.
Where we think we'll be by the end of the year, we think that's gonna climb into the double digits. Why will it do that? It's that same recipe that we're now back in control of because we got through the tech re-platforming, we got through kind of the organizational shift, and now we're back to like, you know, driving these programs. We're back on the offense, and frankly, we now have a new tool in the toolkit that we didn't even anticipate at the beginning of last year, which is the rate at which AI is now something we can use in a whole variety of places in our business. That only accelerates our ability to do that. You know, I think you're gonna see that play out.
I think basically you say, "Okay, well, how can I get some confidence that that'll play out?" I basically say, "Well, because it has been," right? That's how we went from 0- 7 last year, and the market was no help.
Yeah.
The market contracted, so you had to do that in the face of a contracting market. What is it that we did? You saw profits rise much faster than revenue rose last year. We didn't do it by funding it. We did it while profits grew. That's what you're gonna see this year. You're gonna see that our rate of share capture is gonna grow. We'll be in the double digits by the end of the year. Profits, EBITDA, dollars or whatever, they're gonna grow much faster than the rate of revenue growth.
Did you take any pause in all the macroeconomic certainty, uncertainty, the rise in the price of oil or. Is your mindset, "Hey, consumers dealt with a lot of uncertainty for the last four years. This is really no different than what has happened for a while"?
Well, I mean, I think it's really no different. Yeah, I would prefer that the price of oil not be $100.
Without a doubt.
Yeah.
Well said. As you look through the different drivers that seem to be in the relatively early phases of having an impact between loyalty and some of the things you're doing on the advertising side, how are those gonna play out? What is gonna be the most meaningful? Can you give us some insight into what you're seeing from a customer behavior perspective that gives you a lot of confidence on, you know, the outlook for the rest of this year?
You know, we're seeing. You know, so these key programs we have, whether it be verified, whether it be rewards, whether it be the investments into our native apps, whether it be stores, these are all. What we're doing with our advertising and marketing programs, it's all basically really trying to do two things. One, expand our reach of how we attract new customers. Like in our stores, the majority of customers we get through stores are new to us. Some of the marketing programs, we've moved money towards places where we're getting a higher reach with new customers. Either get new customers, but then really what it's about is basically whether they be new or whether they be repeat customers, how do we get them more loyal. That's the bigger piece of the flywheel.
That's where, you know, if they download the app, we know we bend the curve. If they join rewards, we know we bend the curve. If they shop both online and offline, we know we bend the curve. All these things accelerate the customer coming back more times per year. Our average customer is spending $600 with us out of an annual spend of $3,000 or $4,000. The easiest way to take market share is to get that customer who already knows us, likes us, happy with us. You know, why are we only getting $600? Why can't we get, you know, $1,500-$2,000? Why can't we get half their spend?
Well, there's no, like, logical reason why that's like prohibitively, you know, we have to change the laws of physics to get half their spend, right? No, it's just the customer needs to be aware of the breadth of categories. They need to be top of mind thinking of us when they get to that purchase. It needs to be convenient and easy. They need to feel like they're gonna get the best benefits. The things we're doing with logistics, the things we do with our app, the things we're doing, these things all kind of do that. Rewards just gives them another financial motivation. They get 5%. You know, they pay $2,900 a year, but then they get a kind of endless amount of 5% back on anything they buy.
At $600, they've broken even. If they're gonna spend X amount more in the category, well, if I go to Wayfair, I get this extra $5 back. If I think Wayfair has the selection, they have the delivery experience, they have the competitive prices, they have a great experience helping me find the things I want, why wouldn't I just go there? I also get this extra benefit.
Yeah.
Right? That's kinda how all this stuff kind of weaves together. If we can keep accessing new customers at a faster rate, and then whether they're new or repeat, if we can keep doing things that cause them to incrementally become more loyal, that compounds. The category, you know, it can shrink, but the truth is it's still quite large, right? The spend is very fragmented. If you look at a customer share, well, they're generally not concentrating where they're spending their money. It's quite fragmented. The share is coming out of a wide variety of places. If you look at what's happened over the last year, we're one of the only few folks who've really gained share in the category.
We think now with the setup we have post the tech re-platforming, post the organizational kind of changes we made between 2022 and 2024, you know, this is now a compounding cycle, and that's what you saw through last year.
Yeah.
That's what you'll see through this year.
Kate, were you gonna add something?
I actually, you ended up hitting on it on the loyalty piece. I was just gonna say, I think we talked about loyalty a bit on the last call because it's actually one of the sort of cleanest ways for folks to start to see some of this in action. What I think is interesting about it is it's a place where we're giving a little bit of investment to the customer, right, in the terms of that 5% back and some of the shipping and access benefits they get. It ends up being, you know, highly accretive to EBITDA because we're not going and remarketing to that customer. They're coming in directly.
I think it's a good example of the way that we think about as Niraj keeps, you know, highlighting, you know, revenue growth, but EBITDA growth accelerating faster than the revenue growth. Loyalty enables you to do that because we get that incremental purchase. We actually said in the investor presentation, you know, if the average customer is with us two times, you're seeing actually three times from the loyalty customer. If you think about that really being an incremental play, you're seeing that incrementality, and we're getting that without retargeting to them. You're able to see that flow through quite nicely to EBITDA. I think it's an important example of how we look at some of these programs and how we think about the benefit that they're driving on the bottom line and on the top line.
Is it fair to say that you have pretty good visibility into the consumer behavior? You know, as the funnel or life cycle unfolds, where those consumers are who have just signed up, so what their behavior is gonna look like over the next period of time to give you the confidence of.
I mean, we're obviously only a year into the program, right? I'd caveat it by a year and a half into the program at this point. I caveat it by, you know, it's early days, but we can start to see for those initial cohort of customers, how they've behaved over the course of their first year membership, how they start to behave in their second year. We think we have a lot more that we can do in terms of how we keep engaging that loyalty customer.
you know, I would say, yes, we have a, you know, clear perspective. Will that evolve over time? Certainly. Then I'd add, you know, we're talking about loyalty because, as I said, it's a fairly clean example of it. Niraj mentioned a number of other things that we've done, enhancing the app experience, obviously physical retail stores, it's that Verified to continue to improve that sort of customer incrementality.
Yeah. I wanna pivot a bit to stores because this seems like it's a very exciting opportunity to capture a segment of the market that may not have been focused on Wayfair in the past. In the Chicago location, you've talked about 50% of those customers who are shopping in that store are new to Wayfair, suggesting that you're getting a bigger share of the TAM. How quickly do you expect this to play out? Is it right to think that over time, Wayfair is gonna have a physical presence in many major markets, and it'll be another way to interact with, engage, and attract new customers?
Yeah. The Wayfair stores are quite large, right? The one in Wilmette, north of Chicago, is 150,000 sq ft. Because they're quite large, there's call it two years of lead time to open them, you know, plus or minus. They're not something that you can open six months or nine months. For especially retail brands, we have smaller formats stores. You can open those quite quickly. The large ones, the permitting, the construction, it's just, you know, you can only open them at a certain rate. When we opened Chicago, we were very excited with its performance, and that led us to green-lighting some more stores relatively quickly. Well, Chicago has not been open yet two years.
It opened in May of 2024. Our second store is only opening at the end of this month in Atlanta, Georgia.
We're all invited.
Everyone's invited, yeah. Yeah. I mean, the stores are open to the public.
Yeah.
We'd like you to come as often as you want. We have three openings this year. We have the one in Atlanta at the end of this month, one in Columbus, Ohio, in June, end of June, and one in Denver in November. If you think about that two-year timing, we greenlit them because we saw Chicago open very strong. Now, you know, over a year and a half in, we've been able to see how Chicago's developed, and we're even more excited. We're already working on what we're gonna open, not just in 2027, but in 2028, and we're pretty excited about what the potential is.
We, you know, we've seen the math, whether it be that more than 50% are new to file or the rate of growth in that, in that market. You know, it's compound annual growth is, you know, significantly higher than peer markets in the rest of the U.S.. We've seen what the, you know, the economics are of the store itself. Reminder just there is, by the way, you have to spend money for the store, but the delivery, logistics operation, the supply chain, the inventory in it, the brand awareness, the customer reach, you know, these are things we already have. Our economics for opening stores are different than a retailer who maybe started in one region, they're gonna open up that, you know, the distribution center.
They got to get inventory into it. Then they got to, you know, start opening stores to amortize that. They need to market in that region where no one knows them. That's a normal cadence for someone who builds a nationwide retailer. They do it market by market. Well, the reality is we already, you know, because we have a, you know, whatever, $12+ billion national business with all those capabilities, what we don't have are the stores. But we actually have all the other component parts that are usually pretty costly pieces of the store expansion plan, right? So that's part of why it works well, too. Yes, we're pretty excited about the potential.
How fast could you go? You're opening three stores this year. Is that a good cadence? What does that do to, and maybe this is Kate's area, what does that do to the economic model of the business over time?
Yeah. I guess there are two questions within there. You know, right now our focus has been we have one store, one large format store, leaving aside the smaller formats which can expand, you know, quickly. Let's get a few more open. They're all gonna help us learn and understand. We've announced those three. We've also announced relevant to folks in this room, probably who may be from the area, one in Westchester and Ridge Hill opening in Q1 of 2027. You know, we're getting a broader base, and then over time, we can decide what is the appropriate pace to accelerate that off. I think still today we're in the, "Hey, that first store is looking really great.
Let's get a few more open, learn about that, and then we can, you know, determine the appropriate pace. In terms of the economics, we haven't shared a lot around the economics of the store yet. I would tell you that we look at it a few ways. We think about the four wall economics of that store and the performance of transactions, you know, related to the store, as well as the transactions sort of surrounding the store.
Some of that is interesting because the way that we think about our customer is we want her to feel that this is another channel, and we want her to feel that she can go into the store, get a quote, interact with a customer, you know, with a salesperson, learn more about the product, and then go home and purchase it afterwards if she wants to, right? We incentivize our sales people to think about it broadly that way. We're looking at sort of all the different types of purchases relative to the store and then the store economics itself. We are encouraged by what we see on all of those fronts.
You know, as Niraj said, when you think about other folks going into a market, they have investments in the logistics infrastructure, in the marketing infrastructure, and then the, you know, investment in building out the store itself. Really, what we have is the investment in building out the store itself. As we think about the cash-on-cash returns of those stores, it's really just the physical investment in the store.
Got you.
One other point I want to make there, sorry, is that, 'cause I got a question on it this morning, so just to make sure folks understand, the inventory in the store additionally is not something that we are funding, that is suppliers. You know, it's part of the CastleGate network in a way. They see it as sort of another, you know, point where they will forward position their inventory. When you think about the, you know, cash intensity to open a store, you know, the vast majority of the inventory comes from the suppliers.
Just to highlight that, not only the suppliers fund the inventory in all our channels of how we sell goods, so stores are no different. In fact, when we highlight something, we curate it. Whether that be it joining Verified or whether that be in a brick-and-mortar store, actually, the demand from suppliers wanting to be in it is insatiable.
Very high.
Actually, our ability to then still be the curators, our merchant teams picking which item, there's no lack of supplier demand. It's actually. You know, they just view it as, "Hey, I wanna drive my sales up. And, you know, if you put it in, I know exactly what that's going to be." It's actually, it's a nice adjunct build off the already the setup we have.
Where I wanna come to a conclusion in our conversation is that Wayfair historically has been incredibly disciplined and thoughtful in how it manages the levers around the profitability of the business. This year, the expectation is set that the gross margin could dip a little bit below 30%.
Yeah, yeah.
The focus coming out of the fourth quarter results. Help us create a little bit of context for that. What's driving it? How should we think about as external observers, how that's gonna unfold over the longer term?
Yeah. Let me just give a kind of quick thought on that, but then turn it over to Kate to fully answer the question for you. What I would just say is, like, so if you think about. We talked about rewards for a second, you know, a second ago. Well, rewards, you know, if you basically give someone 5% back off the retail price, you know, you're basically taking gross margin down by five, you know, 5% of the 30%, right? So, you know, 1.5% for those purchases, net of what the $29 fee they've given covers, right? Part of that gets covered by the $29. As you can imagine, they're gonna purchase more than $600 per year if they're in the program, and they do.
That takes down the margin. As we mentioned, the actual profitability goes up. Why? Well, we get a lot more direct traffic from them. That's like a you know, the advertising cost for that customer cohort is lower. That's like the net math there. I can go down through different examples of basically where there's trade-offs between margin and S&A or between margin and advertising and so on and so forth. The set of programs we have will move these interim lines, and that's why I think the important thing to talk about is how revenue can accelerate between now and where we are at the end of the year, where the share spread can grow into the double digits pretty nicely.
The EBITDA growth will outpace that revenue growth by a significant margin because ultimately, like, those are the two things you really wanna see. Because our different programs have interplay, you know, do we wanna manage a given line suboptimally to worry about that line? Or do we wanna manage them in the optimal mix at that program level to get that outcome we want, which is that the revenue growth is optimized while the EBITDA growth to be faster than that is also optimized. Those are really the objective functions. That's what we're doing. I think what we found is, like, you don't wanna surprise folks. You wanna communicate that.
I think in communicating that, what was lost is that the gross margin line, people got focused on it in isolation, and the concept that we're talking about EBITDA growth outpacing the revenue growth by a fair amount, and that's part of the sentence, that seemed to have gotten like, you know, truncated somehow, you know? I think 'cause I think if people kind of hold that full thought together, they're like, "Okay, well, that's what I wanna see." I think somehow, maybe we didn't communicate it well enough, but it got truncated there.
Please, anything to add?
I, you know, I know we're at time. We're over time.
We could do this all day. Come on. We're getting started.
We'll just hang out here, everybody. I think you highlighted it, Niraj highlighted it nicely, which is the philosophy for how we operate the business has not changed over the last few years, and that's we want to accelerate both revenue and EBITDA growth, but we believe that EBITDA can grow faster than the top line. We have three primary cost levers with, you know, between revenue and EBITDA that we talk a lot about. There's the gross margin line, there's the ACNR line, the ad cost line, and then there's the SG&A, which is the overhead OpEx line.
We think about the interplay across those lines to ultimately achieve that same goal that we've always talked about or talked about for the last few years, which is do we wanna make a trade-off that is going to accelerate revenue growth, but ultimately on an EBITDA dollar space is actually better, improving. That growth margin piece was, hey, we actually see here that we can make some investments here in price and the customer experience that will ultimately pay off with top-line acceleration that yields better EBITDA dollars growth. There are other things that we can do to sort of navigate and manage that to have that ultimate outcome. I think we've proven our ability on all three of those levers actually over the last two years, our ability to navigate those quite well.
This was so fun. Awesome. Thank you so much. Please join me in thanking the team from Wayfair for a great conversation.
Thanks, everybody.
Thank you.
It is exceptional. Thank you.